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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 10 at New York Giants 38. Final.
Giants -5.5 ✓O 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 17
New York Giants 38, Colts 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:33, 3rd and 8, on Parris Campbell — 12.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:33 · 3rd and 8
Parris Campbell
Colts
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Giants closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 28.
New York Giants 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, Colts +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zack MossGiantsQ1 7:21(7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss left guard to IND 43 for 8 yards (54-J.Smith, 29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on IND-79-B.Raimann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 35 - No Play.
4.8pts
Richie JamesGiantsQ2 10:44(10:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 80-R.James for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 4 of 7 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Colts147 of 154 plays carry both curves
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Swing −12.2 for GiantsExpected points −4.67 for GiantsThe model had Colts 10 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:33NYG +12% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
2nd · 10:44NYG +8% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 80-R.James for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:21IND +5% win prob(7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss left guard to IND 43 for 8 yards (54-J.Smith, 29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on IND-79-B.Raimann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 35 - No Play.
2nd · 1:54IND +5% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-L.Collins at NYG 48. 21-L.Collins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:27NYG +4% win prob(14:27) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to IND 22 for 19 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
1st · 15:00IND +4% win prob(15:00) 21-Z.Moss up the middle to IND 22 for -3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Richie James's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:29Chase McLaughlin·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
2nd10:44Richie James·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel JonesLead never changed again+73–7
2nd4:26Isaiah Hodgins·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–14
Giants ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Colts: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.21Giants: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Colts: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.33Giants: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.10Giants: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 56 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Giants’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Giants 5.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −20.0 pts, is past their previous low of −8.7 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 16.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.9% in week 16 against 40.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.3% in week 16 against 25.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Giants13.3%
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.0 pts, 16.1 points below their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q1 5:33 · Colts · 3rd & 8 at IND 37 · gained 49 · +4.67 EP · +16.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
47%
Yards
646
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.2447%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1155%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.6138%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.600%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 37
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Colts 47
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Colts3Giants0
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Giants 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 47
2nd quarter53 plays
Colts3Giants6
Colts3Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 6
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 26
Colts3Giants13
Colts3Giants14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Colts 6
Colts3Giants20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 48
Colts3Giants21
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 48
Colts3Giants24
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Colts 18
3rd quarter36 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
No good4 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 29
Colts3Giants30
Colts3Giants31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Colts 18
Colts9Giants31
Colts10Giants31
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Giants 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Colts 33
4th quarter30 plays
Colts10Giants37
Colts10Giants38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 10
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 42
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Colts 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -5.5
Closing total
38.5
Colts moneyline
+202
Giants moneyline
-229
Giants closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 48 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Colts 6 days · Giants 8 days
Coaches
Jeff Saturday vs Brian Daboll
1st · 13:43
NYG +4% win prob
(13:43) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell. PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 28 - No Play.
2nd · 4:26NYG +4% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
