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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q1 5:33, 3rd and 8, on Parris Campbell — 12.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, Colts +12.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:33 · 3rd and 8
Parris Campbell
Colts
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 4 of 7 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 12 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Richie James's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Richie James6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel JonesLead never changed again+73–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 56 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Giants’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Giants 5.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's pass rate over expected, −20.0 pts, is past their previous low of −8.7 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.9% in week 16 against 40.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.3% in week 16 against 25.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-20.0 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −16.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−2.46× that swing) · 56 snaps
Giants-7.7 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 85%
Tendencies room →Colts40.5%leaned — ran early · −16.4 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.74× that swing) · 42 early downs
Giants45.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Colts13.3%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Giants14.3%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Colts—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 70%
Tendencies room →Colts25.0%leaned — sent pressure · +9.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Giants26.7%leaned — sat back · −13.2 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Colts7.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Giants13.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
IND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.0 pts, 16.1 points below their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
19/24, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Passing · IND
8/13, 81 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-9.5 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
3/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · -6.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Daniel Jones banked 16.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 36.2 | +16.3 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 19/24, 177 yd, 2 TD · 11 car, 91 yd, 2 TD |
| Richie JamesWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +8.8 | 79% | 89% | 30% | 37% | 7/7, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +4.8 | 98% | 100% | 30% | 36% | 6/8, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Featured Receiver | 14.2 | +5.9 | 81% | 96% | 22% | 25% | 4/5, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Parris CampbellWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | +0.5 | 97% | 97% | 22% | 25% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/6, 52 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 7.7 | +1.1 | 19% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 59 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Sam EhlingerQB | 7.6 | +2.5 | 50% | — | 0% | — | 9/14, 60 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 12 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 7.4 | +0.3 | 59% | 53% | 0% | — | 15 car, 74 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −4.1 | 79% | 93% | 17% | 0% | 12 car, 58 yd · 2/4, -5 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +2.0 | 89% | 100% | 13% | 26% | 3/3, 42 yd |
| Jordan WilkinsRB | 5.7 | −0.3 | 17% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 23 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.1 | 60% | 57% | 15% | 3% | 3/4, 19 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −1.7 | 83% | 90% | 19% | 13% | 3/5, 15 yd |
| Nick FolesQB | 2.0 | −1.7 | 50% | — | 0% | — | 8/13, 81 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −2.7 | 83% | 96% | 13% | 22% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB | 1.0 | −0.3 | 24% | 33% | 0% | — | 3 car, 10 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.9 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 53% | 53% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikola KalinicTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Mike StrachanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 1-P.Campbell to NYG 14 for 49 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q1 5:33 · Colts · 3rd & 8 at IND 37 · gained 49 · +4.67 EP · +16.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Colts3
Giants0Colts3Giants6Colts3Giants7Colts3Giants13Colts3Giants14Colts3Giants20Colts3Giants21Colts3Giants24Colts3Giants30Colts3Giants31Colts9Giants31Colts10Giants31Colts10Giants37Colts10Giants38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 8/13 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −9.5 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 9/14 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 22% | −6.0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 11 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rodney Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/24 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_IND_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Giants closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 48 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Deon Jackson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| 30% |
| +4.0 |
| Jelani Woods | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | −0.7 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 19% | −1.8 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallis Flowers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 91 | 8.3 | 2 | +8.4 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Gary Brightwell | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 7 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 30% | +8.2 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 22% | +2.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +3.6 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −5.5 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 17% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Smith | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Collins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tony Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah McFadden | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
