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DYNATYZE
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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars162 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.4 for TexansExpected points −5.06 for TexansThe model had Texans 9 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:30HOU +8% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:29HOU +7% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Hasty left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:35JAX +6% win prob(11:35) 6-J.Driskel up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (2-R.Jenkins, 31-D.Williams).
1st · 11:04HOU +4% win prob(11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to HOU 23 for 9 yards (25-D.King, 5-J.Pitre).
1st · 14:55HOU +3% win prob(14:55) 33-D.Ogunbowale left tackle to HOU 35 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 41-J.Allen).
1st · 12:12JAX +3% win prob(12:12) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (33-D.Lloyd; 98-C.Peters).
2nd · 14:57JAX +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jamycal Hasty's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 8:29 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:29Jamycal Hasty·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
3rd5:54Ka'imi Fairbairn·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+328–3
4th6:10Riley Patterson·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+331–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryTexans
Jaguars5–2Texans
337Total yards277
5.6Yards per play4.1
43%Success rate27%
33%Third-down rate35%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays5
17First downs12
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.51Texans: −0.51 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Jaguars: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.53Texans: −0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Jaguars: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.43Texans: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 60 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Texans’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Texans 1.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's play-action rate, 10.2%, is past their previous low of 15.2% in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Texans9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteHOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.2%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 25.1% and 2.0 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Etienne left+8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:30 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at JAX 38 · gained 62 · +5.06 EP · +8.5% win probability
160 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
36%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.6875%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0357%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0242%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0378%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1643%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.1820%
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 45
Jaguars6Texans0
Jaguars7Texans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 5
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Texans 39
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 47
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 18
Jaguars13Texans0
Jaguars14Texans0
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars20Texans0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 25
Jaguars21Texans0
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 14
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 10
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 17
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 48
3rd quarter38 plays
Jaguars27Texans0
Jaguars28Texans0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 3
Jaguars28Texans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 38
Intercepted11 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Texans 21
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 15
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 49
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 14
Jaguars31Texans3
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 35
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jaguars 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Texans 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
