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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

31

Houston Texans

3

JAX -3.5 ✓U 43 ✓Dome

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:30, HOU +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 12:30JAX 13 — HOU 0JAX ball · 1st & 10JAX 84%

(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:30HOU +8% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 8:29HOU +7% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Hasty left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 11:35JAX +6% win prob(11:35) 6-J.Driskel up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (2-R.Jenkins, 31-D.Williams).
  4. Q1 · 11:04HOU +4% win prob(11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to HOU 23 for 9 yards (25-D.King, 5-J.Pitre).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:29JAX Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Hasty left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — HOU 0
  2. Q2 · 12:30JAX Touchdown

    (12:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — HOU 0
  3. Q2 · 11:43JAX Touchdown

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen), touched at HOU 16, RECOVERED by JAX-32-T.Campbell at HOU 12. 32-T.Campbell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — HOU 0
  4. Q3 · 9:31JAX Touchdown

    (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-S.Conner right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 28 — HOU 0
  5. Q3 · 5:54HOU Field goal

    (5:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: JAX 28 — HOU 3
  6. Q4 · 6:10JAX Field goal

    (6:10) 10-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 31 — HOU 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTexans
Offensive plays6067
Total yards337 (edge)277
Yards per play5.6 (edge)4.1
Expected points added / play-0.08 (edge)-0.51
Success rate43% (edge)27%
Dropback rate52%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.19 (edge)-0.53
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.43
Third downs4/126/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)12
Sacks taken22
Turnovers21 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

22/40, 202 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-22.5 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/21, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

9 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Jamycal HastyRB

10 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

6/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

4/7 for 39 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 268193:30Turnover on downs
2JAXHOU 459453:06Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 26571:34Punt
4JAXJAX 236373:09Punt
5HOUHOU 1582:27Punt
6JAXJAX 356122:01Punt
7HOUHOU 11461:43Punt
8JAXJAX 382620:09Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 233-70:46Defensive touchdown
10HOUHOU 255142:28Punt
11JAXJAX 9250:46Interception
12HOUJAX 415311:32Turnover on downs
13JAXJAX 10472:04Punt
14HOUHOU 427162:52Punt
15JAXJAX 106391:53End of half
16JAXJAX 2513655:32Touchdown +7
17HOUHOU 258473:39Field goal +3
18JAXJAX 2111585:04Interception
19HOUHOU 1011394:07Turnover on downs
20JAXHOU 484-41:38Punt
21HOUHOU 104-51:45Punt
22JAXHOU 40452:09Field goal +3
23HOUHOU 318382:13Turnover on downs
24JAXJAX 41461:59Punt
25HOUHOU 117641:54End of game

5 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 65 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence17/211520111.5
C.J. Beathard5/829011-7.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne910812.014.8
Jamycal Hasty10333.31-0.6
Snoop Conner5173.41-0.5
Evan Engram11313.001.0
Trevor Lawrence242.00-1.6
Jamal Agnew2-6-3.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marvin Jones6761025%1.0
Travis Etienne3332011%-0.6
Zay Jones3524018%-3.2
Jamycal Hasty6623021%-0.2
Christian Kirk2321011%1.2
Evan Engram121607%0.8
Jamal Agnew11404%-1.2
Dan Arnold01004%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun440.001
Josh Hines-Allen331.000
Devin Lloyd150.000
Gregory Junior320.000
K'Lavon Chaisson311.000
Chad Muma310.000
Darious Williams220.000
Tre Herndon210.000
Andrew Wingard300.000
Shaquille Quarterman210.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills22/40202001-22.5
Jeff Driskel3/49001-3.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Davis Mills4338.30-0.2
Dare Ogunbowale7213.00-1.9
Royce Freeman7192.70-2.2
Jeff Driskel273.50-3.1
Amari Rodgers144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandin Cooks4739017%-2.7
Jordan Akins233807%0.8
O.J. Howard122605%1.1
Chris Moore3521012%-0.9
Royce Freeman3520012%-1.2
Brevin Jordan132007%-0.4
Phillip Dorsett3614014%-3.9
Amari Rodgers221205%1.4
Rex Burkhead3510012%-8.0
Troy Hairston11702%0.3
Dare Ogunbowale23407%-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre1120.011
Desmond King520.011
Christian Kirksey140.000
Blake Cashman310.000
Christian Harris310.000
Steven Nelson310.000
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo301.000
Kurt Hinish210.000
Jerry Hughes121.000
Jonathan Owens200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Closing total
43
JAX moneyline
-187
HOU moneyline
+167

Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 43; the game landed 34 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
JAX 10 days · HOU 8 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Lovie Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.