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Los Angeles Rams 10 at Los Angeles Chargers 31. Final.
Chargers -6.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers 31, Rams 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:14, 3rd and 3, on Malcolm Brown — 7.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:14 · 3rd and 3
Malcolm Brown
Rams
(4:14) 41-M.Brown up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Los Angeles Chargers 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:14, Rams +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam AkersRamsQ1 5:44(5:44) 3-C.Akers left end to LAC 22 for 42 yards (9-K.Murray).
6.9pts
Austin EkelerChargersQ2 8:37(8:37) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Rams143 of 148 plays carry both curves
(4:14) 41-M.Brown up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.9 for ChargersExpected points −3.22 for ChargersThe model had Rams 10 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:14LAC +8% win prob(4:14) 41-M.Brown up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:37LAC +7% win prob(8:37) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:44LAC +7% win prob(5:44) 3-C.Akers left end to LAC 22 for 42 yards (9-K.Murray).
2nd · 13:47LAC +7% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:56LAC +6% win prob(12:56) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 12-V.Jefferson to LAC 33 for 39 yards (32-A.Gilman).
2nd · 10:38LA +5% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-17-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at LAC 29.
1st · 7:57LAC +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 13:47 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:13Matt Gay·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+33–0
2nd13:47Austin Ekeler·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
Chargers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Rams: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.37Chargers: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Rams: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.20Chargers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 47 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Chargers’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Rams 2, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 54.2%, is past their previous high of 44.4% in week 9 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 16.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.2% in week 16 against 6.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chargers20.8%
leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 54.2%, 22.9 points above their season mean of 31.3% and 2.0 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
68Ty NsekheT · Every snap100%49 snaps
67Chandler BrewerT · Every snap100%49 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%49 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%49 snaps
17Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%49 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%49 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time94%46 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time90%44 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Full-time84%41 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation78%38 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Heavy rotation76%37 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Rotational39%19 snaps
41Malcolm BrownRB · Situational16%8 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Situational12%6 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Situational6%3 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Situational4%2 snaps
46Jared PinkneyTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCShaun JollyDBAaron DonaldDTTravin HowardILBJohn WolfordQBBen SkowronekWR
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:38) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-17-B.Mayfield, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at LAC 29.
Q2 10:38 · Rams · 3rd & 6 at LAC 29 · gained nothing · -3.32 EP · −11.4% win probability
141 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, manual charting on 127. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3652%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1966%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2141%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4936%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.9014%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 47
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 47
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams3Chargers0
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Chargers 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Rams 49
2nd quarter45 plays
Rams3Chargers6
Rams3Chargers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chargers 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams3Chargers13
Rams3Chargers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 28
Rams9Chargers14
Rams10Chargers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chargers 23
Rams10Chargers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Rams 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Rams10Chargers23
Rams10Chargers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Rams 6
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Chargers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Rams 40
4th quarter36 plays
Rams10Chargers30
Rams10Chargers31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 3
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 32
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 13
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Rams 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
