2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Miami Dolphins

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -3 no coverO 41.5 ✓Patriots closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 3:03, MIA +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:03MIA 14 — NE 16MIA ball · 3rd & 15MIA 57%

(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd d

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:03MIA +23% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
Q3 · 1:06NE +14% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to MIA 47 for 17 yards (3-J.Peppers, 27-M.Bryant). PENALTY on NE-8-J.Bentley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47.
Q3 · 6:41NE +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 11-T.Thornton to MIA 36 for 29 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q4 · 14:24MIA +11% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at NE 35. 31-Jo.Jones pushed ob at NE 37 for 2 yards (10-T.Hill).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:19NE Touchdown
(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 11-T.Thornton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NE 7
Q2 · 15:00MIA Touchdown
(15:00) 10-T.Hill left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — NE 7
Q3 · 9:22MIA Touchdown
(9:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 31-R.Mostert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Barmore]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — NE 7
Q3 · 4:08NE Field goal
(4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: MIA 14 — NE 10
Q3 · 3:03NE Touchdown
(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
Score after this play: MIA 14 — NE 16
Q4 · 4:40NE Touchdown
(4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — NE 23
Q4 · 1:11MIA Touchdown
(1:11) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 21 — NE 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	69	55
Total yards	333 (edge)	251
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	39% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	64%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	4/14	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Dolphins outgained Patriots 333–251 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

20/33, 204 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Teddy BridgewaterQB

12/19, 161 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Jeffery WilsonRB

15 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

8/8 for 62 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Tyquan ThorntonWR

3/7 for 60 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 23	7	26	3:27	Punt
2	NE	NE 19	11	67	4:18	Touchdown +7
3	MIA	MIA 25	15	75	7:20	Touchdown +7
4	NE	NE 25	8	30	3:36	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 20	9	47	4:58	Missed field goal
6	NE	NE 41	4	3	0:53	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 14	8	38	3:43	Punt
8	NE	NE 2	4	20	1:45	End of half
9	NE	NE 25	5	4	0:55	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 40	4	1	1:04	Punt
11	NE	NE 10	4	3	0:59	Punt
12	MIA	NE 41	6	41	2:45	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 18	10	56	5:14	Field goal +3
14	MIA	MIA 29	4	0	1:12	Defensive touchdown
15	MIA	MIA 25	7	18	3:33	Interception
16	NE	NE 37	4	5	1:31	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 20	7	22	3:04	Punt
18	NE	NE 11	12	67	5:06	Touchdown +7
19	MIA	MIA 32	5	3	1:14	Turnover on downs
20	NE	MIA 35	4	-4	0:51	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 39	10	62	1:28	Touchdown +7
22	NE	MIA 45	3	0	1:04	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 75 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	12/19	161	1	1	1	0.7
Skylar Thompson	12/21	104	1	1	1	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	15	45	3.0	0	-1.2
Raheem Mostert	9	29	3.2	0	-1.3
Teddy Bridgewater	1	6	6.0	0	-0.1
Skylar Thompson	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Tyreek Hill	1	2	2.0	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Raheem Mostert	8	8	62	1	20%	7.3
Tyreek Hill	4	7	55	0	18%	0.0
Jaylen Waddle	3	5	52	0	13%	1.3
Jeffery Wilson	3	7	31	0	18%	-1.5
Trent Sherfield	2	6	30	0	15%	-6.7
Mike Gesicki	2	4	18	1	10%	1.3
Durham Smythe	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Salvon Ahmed	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
Alec Ingold	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Elandon Roberts	6	3	1.0	0
Jevon Holland	6	1	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	3	3	1.0	0
Jerome Baker	3	2	0.0	1
Christian Wilkins	3	2	1.0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	2	0.0	1
John Jenkins	1	2	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	3	0	0.0	0
Kader Kohou	2	0	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	1	1	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	20/33	204	2	0	3	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	42	5.3	-0.8
Damien Harris	9	31	3.4	-2.1
Kendrick Bourne	1	2	2.0	-1.1
Mac Jones	3	1	0.3	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyquan Thornton	3	7	60	1	22%	5.0
Hunter Henry	5	6	52	0	19%	2.5
Jakobi Meyers	6	9	49	1	28%	1.9
Damien Harris	3	3	18	0	9%	-0.3
Kendrick Bourne	1	2	16	0	6%	0.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	4	9	0	13%	-2.6
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Myles Bryant	5	2	0.0	0	1
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	2	0.0	1	2
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0.0	1	2
Christian Barmore	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 41.5
MIA moneyline: +144
NE moneyline: -160

Patriots closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 8 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.