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Miami Dolphins 21 at New England Patriots 23. Final.
Patriots -3 no coverO 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 17
New England Patriots 23, Dolphins 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 3:03, 3rd and 15, on Kyle Dugger — 23.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:03 · 3rd and 15
Kyle Dugger
Patriots
(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
Patriots closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 3:03, Patriots +23.4% win probability on one snap.
23.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyquan ThorntonPatriotsQ3 6:41(6:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 11-T.Thornton to MIA 36 for 29 yards (8-J.Holland).
10.9pts
Raheem MostertDolphinsQ3 1:06(1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to MIA 47 for 17 yards (3-J.Peppers, 27-M.Bryant). PENALTY on NE-8-J.Bentley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47.
13.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd d
Swing +23.4 for PatriotsExpected points +5.59 for PatriotsThe model had Dolphins 3 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:03MIA +23% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
3rd · 1:06NE +14% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to MIA 47 for 17 yards (3-J.Peppers, 27-M.Bryant). PENALTY on NE-8-J.Bentley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47.
3rd · 6:41NE +11% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 11-T.Thornton to MIA 36 for 29 yards (8-J.Holland).
4th · 14:24MIA +11% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at NE 35. 31-Jo.Jones pushed ob at NE 37 for 2 yards (10-T.Hill).
4th · 8:21NE +10% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at MIA 43 for 25 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 12:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Dugger's 39-yard touchdown with 3:03 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:19Tyquan Thornton·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+70–7
3rd4:08Nick Folk·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap T.Addington+314–10
3rd3:03Kyle Dugger·39-yd defence TD39-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+614–16
4th4:40Jakobi Meyers·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+714–23
Dolphins ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Patriots: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Dolphins: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Dolphins: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.20Patriots: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 69 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Patriots’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Patriots 2.
NoteDolphins outgained Patriots 333-251 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Patriots15.9%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.4 pts, 9.6 points above their season mean of -1.3 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass−24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
Q3 3:03 · Dolphins · 3rd & 15 at MIA 24 · gained nothing · -5.59 EP · −24.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
34%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1278%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1583%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.0729%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1144%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins0Patriots6
Dolphins0Patriots7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended17 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 5
2nd quarter38 plays
Dolphins6Patriots7
Dolphins7Patriots7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Patriots 33
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Patriots 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 22
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 41
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 13
Dolphins13Patriots7
Dolphins14Patriots7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 2
Dolphins14Patriots10
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Dolphins 31
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Dolphins14Patriots16
Touchdown5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 38
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 42
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins14Patriots22
Dolphins14Patriots23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Dolphins 2
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 29
Dolphins20Patriots23
Dolphins21Patriots23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Patriots 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3
Closing total
41.5
Dolphins moneyline
+144
Patriots moneyline
-160
Patriots closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Patriots 8 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
MIA +10% win prob
(12:03) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 45 for -12 yards (52-E.Roberts).
1st · 7:19NE +8% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 11-T.Thornton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:45NE +8% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 85-H.Henry to MIA 42 for 29 yards (8-J.Holland). MIA-8-J.Holland was injured during the play.
