For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota Vikings

17

Green Bay PackersWinner

41

GB -3 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑MIN ↓
Q1 · 5:33MIN 3 — GB 13MIN ball · 4th & 2GB 67%

(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 5:33MIN +19% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 11:59MIN +16% win prob(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).
  3. Q1 · 10:38GB +15% win prob1-G.Joseph kicks 70 yards from MIN 35 to GB -5. 25-K.Nixon for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 6:37MIN +10% win prob(6:37) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -16 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:41MIN Field goal

    (10:41) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 0
  2. Q1 · 10:38GB Touchdown

    1-G.Joseph kicks 70 yards from MIN 35 to GB -5. 25-K.Nixon for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 7
  3. Q1 · 5:33GB Touchdown

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 14
  4. Q2 · 9:52GB Field goal

    (9:52) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 17
  5. Q2 · 2:48GB Touchdown

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 24
  6. Q2 · 0:04GB Field goal

    (:04) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 27
  7. Q4 · 15:00GB Touchdown

    (15:00) 28-A.Dillon left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 34
  8. Q4 · 9:31GB Touchdown

    (9:31) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 41
  9. Q4 · 7:44MIN Touchdown

    (7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-47-J.Hollins, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — GB 41
  10. Q4 · 0:25MIN Touchdown

    (:25) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — GB 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsPackers
Offensive plays5759
Total yards346 (edge)316
Yards per play6.1 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play-0.190.11 (edge)
Success rate46%49% (edge)
Dropback rate68%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.10 (edge)
Third downs5/127/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1719 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Vikings outgained Packers 346–316 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

18/31, 205 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-17.2 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

15/24, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

14 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

12 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jalen NailorWR

3/3 for 89 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

5/6 for 59 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 33561:34Punt
2GBGB 21471:36Punt
3MINGB 14-11:12Field goal +3
4GB—200:13Defensive touchdown +7
5MINMIN 25501:00Punt
6GBGB 38572:53Turnover on downs
7MINGB 45481:15Defensive touchdown
8MINMIN 389393:40Missed field goal
9GBGB 3614616:49Field goal +3
10MINMIN 297403:56Interception
11GBGB 406703:11Touchdown +7
12MINMIN 2211462:05Missed field goal
13GBGB 404230:36Field goal +3
14GBGB 257162:20Punt
15MINMIN 169705:34Fumble
16GBGB 2413717:12Touchdown +7
17MINMIN 25200:14Interception
18GBMIN 459455:15Touchdown +7
19MINMIN 416591:49Touchdown +7
20GBGB 258163:38Punt
21MINMIN 219793:37Touchdown +7
22GBGB 25200:21End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins18/31205132-17.2
Nick Mullens4/4571005.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison8384.800.1
Kirk Cousins33712.304.2
Dalvin Cook9273.00-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Nailor338919%7.4
K.J. Osborn7759120%6.9
T.J. Hockenson71259034%-7.7
Dalvin Cook231709%-0.3
Adam Thielen1416011%-4.9
Justin Jefferson1515014%-6.2
Alexander Mattison11703%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Camryn Bynum450.000
Khyiris Tonga230.000
Brian Asamoah410.000
Harrison Smith230.000
Eric Kendricks320.000
T.J. Smith130.000
Patrick Peterson220.000
Jordan Hicks130.000
Dalvin Tomlinson221.000
Duke Shelley210.001

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers15/241591012.0
Jordan Love2/39000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones141117.905.5
A.J. Dillon12413.41-0.7
Patrick Taylor5102.00-1.6
Aaron Rodgers122.012.1
Jordan Love1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Allen Lazard5659023%4.0
Robert Tonyan3452115%5.2
Romeo Doubs3420015%0.5
Randall Cobb222008%2.5
Christian Watson1511019%-2.4
Josiah Deguara11404%-0.1
Aaron Jones232012%-3.2
A.J. Dillon01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell430.000
Adrian Amos610.012
Quay Walker240.001
Rasul Douglas310.002
Kenny Clark131.000
Rudy Ford120.011
Preston Smith120.000
Tedarrell Slaton120.002
Isaiah McDuffie120.000
Darnell Savage110.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3
Closing total
47.5
MIN moneyline
+155
GB moneyline
-173

Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
39°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
MIN 8 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.