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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q1 5:33, 4th and 2, on Darnell Savage — 18.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, Packers +18.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:33 · 4th and 2
Darnell Savage
Packers
(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 5 of 12 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Keisean Nixon's 105-yard return touchdown with 10:38 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Keisean Nixon105-yd return TD105-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+73–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Packers’s 59 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Packers 5.
Vikings outgained Packers 346-316 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.0 pts in week 16 against −3.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.9% in week 16 against 39.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-3.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.0 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 57 snaps
Packers-2.8 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 86%
Tendencies room →Vikings62.8%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 43 early downs
Packers39.1%leaned — ran early · −13.8 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Vikings17.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Packers32.1%right on their number · +5.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings40.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Packers33.3%right on their number · −11.0 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Vikings17.9%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Packers12.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Vikings10.7%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Packers23.1%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
MIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -3.5 pts, 6.0 points below their season mean of 2.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
18/31, 205 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-17.2 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected
Passing · GB
15/24, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Nailor banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. OsbornWR · Featured Receiver | 18.9 | +7.8 | 79% | 87% | 20% | 11% | 7/7, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.9 | +13.7 | 16% | 13% | 9% | 19% | 3/3, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 16.6 | −0.3 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 159 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +6.5 | 62% | 76% | 15% | 14% | 3/4, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | +1.3 | 40% | 31% | 12% | 7% | 14 car, 111 yd · 2/3, 2 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −6.5 | 81% | 87% | 34% | 33% | 7/12, 59 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −1.6 | 71% | 79% | 23% | 20% | 5/6, 59 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −3.9 | 46% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 12 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 7.9 | −6.6 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 18/31, 205 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, 37 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Committee Back | 6.4 | −8.7 | 59% | 59% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 27 yd · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | 6.3 | +4.1 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 4/4, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 5.5 | −0.6 | 40% | 38% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 38 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −1.5 | 49% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.8 | 46% | 59% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −6.6 | 84% | 87% | 11% | 19% | 1/4, 16 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −5.8 | 79% | 85% | 14% | 20% | 1/5, 15 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 2.1 | −9.1 | 60% | 59% | 19% | 49% | 1/5, 11 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 37% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 1.0 | −1.8 | 19% | 21% | 0% | — | 5 car, 10 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB | 0.3 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).
Q1 11:59 · Packers · 4th & 3 at GB 28 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −17.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 79 yards from the MIN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Packers0Vikings3Packers6Vikings3Packers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Vikings3Packers13Vikings3Packers14Vikings3Packers17Vikings3Packers23Vikings3Packers24Vikings3Packers27Vikings3Packers33Vikings3Packers34Vikings3Packers40Vikings3Packers41Vikings9Packers41Vikings10Packers41Vikings16Packers41Vikings17Packers41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/31 | 205 | 1 | 3 | 2 | −17.2 |
| Nick Mullens | 4/4 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 89 | 1 | 9% | +7.4 |
| K.J. Osborn | 7 | 7 | 59 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Asamoah |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/24 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Jordan Love | 2/3 | 9 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_MIN_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.7 |
| +6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 12 | 59 | 0 | 34% | −7.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −4.9 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 14% | −6.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Smith | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Shelley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 0 | +5.5 |
| A.J. Dillon | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Patrick Taylor | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 23% | +4.0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 | 15% | +5.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +2.5 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 19% | −2.4 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12% | −3.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
