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Minnesota Vikings 17 at Green Bay Packers 41. Final.
Packers -3 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 17
Green Bay Packers 41, Vikings 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:33, 4th and 2, on Darnell Savage — 18.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:33 · 4th and 2
Darnell Savage
Packers
(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Green Bay Packers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, Packers +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetVikingsQ1 11:59(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).
15.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ1 10:381-G.Joseph kicks 70 yards from MIN 35 to GB -5. 25-K.Nixon for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 5 of 12 on third down.
(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.6 for PackersExpected points +8.08 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:33MIN +19% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:59MIN +16% win prob(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).
1st · 10:38GB +15% win prob1-G.Joseph kicks 70 yards from MIN 35 to GB -5. 25-K.Nixon for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:37MIN +10% win prob(6:37) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -16 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
1st · 13:42MIN +6% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen (29-R.Douglas) [97-K.Clark].
2nd · 6:00MIN +6% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Amos (93-T.Slaton) at GB 14. 31-A.Amos pushed ob at GB 40 for 26 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keisean Nixon's 105-yard return touchdown with 10:38 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:41Greg Joseph·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–0
1st10:38Keisean Nixon·105-yd return TD105-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+73–7
4th0:25K.J. Osborn·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+717–41
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryPackers
Vikings2–7Packers
346Total yards316
6.1Yards per play5.4
46%Success rate49%
42%Third-down rate58%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays6
17First downs19
2Sacks taken1
4Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.10Packers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Packers’s 59 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Packers 5.
NoteVikings outgained Packers 346-316 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.0 pts in week 16 against −3.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.9% in week 16 against 39.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Packers23.1%
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -3.5 pts, 6.0 points below their season mean of 2.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.O'Donnell punt−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-56-J.Coco, recovered by GB-6-D.Leavitt at GB 4. 6-D.Leavitt to GB 1 for -3 yards (91-P.Jones).
Q1 11:59 · Packers · 4th & 3 at GB 28 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −17.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 79 yards from the MIN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1072%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0165%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0432%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2133%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 39
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 28
Vikings3Packers0
Field goal4 plays
Vikings3Packers6
Vikings3Packers7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Vikings 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings3Packers13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 37
Vikings3Packers14
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Packers 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Vikings 46
2nd quarter46 plays
Vikings3Packers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Vikings 3
Intercepted10 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Packers 31
Vikings3Packers23
Vikings3Packers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Vikings 20
The period ended14 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Packers 30
Vikings3Packers27
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Vikings 37
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 41
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Packers 15
The period ended14 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Vikings 12
4th quarter40 plays
Vikings3Packers33
Vikings3Packers34
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings3Packers40
Vikings3Packers41
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 2
Vikings9Packers41
Vikings10Packers41
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Packers 47
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 41
Vikings16Packers41
Vikings17Packers41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Packers 9
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
