2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -5.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 5:31, NO +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:31NO 19 — PHI 10PHI ball · 2nd & 8NO 65%

(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:31NO +25% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:58PHI +20% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:35NO +12% win prob(8:35) (No Huddle) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to 50 for no gain (56-D.Davis).
Q1 · 6:47PHI +12% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to PHI 1 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:07NO Touchdown
(6:07) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — PHI 0
Q2 · 8:35NO Field goal
(8:35) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 10 — PHI 0
Q2 · 3:08NO Field goal
(3:08) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 13 — PHI 0
Q3 · 11:03PHI Field goal
(11:03) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Score after this play: NO 13 — PHI 3
Q3 · 0:58PHI Touchdown
(:58) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 13 — PHI 10
Q4 · 5:31NO Touchdown
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 20 — PHI 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Eagles
Offensive plays	64	53
Total yards	315 (edge)	313
Yards per play	4.9	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	44% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	48%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	7	6 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Gardner MinshewQB

18/32, 274 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

18/22, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

16 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

12 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

9/13 for 115 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

4/9 for 97 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	17	80	8:58	Touchdown +7
2	PHI	PHI 25	5	2	2:08	Punt
3	NO	NO 29	10	28	5:20	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 10	4	9	2:06	Punt
5	NO	NO 42	5	32	2:58	Field goal +3
6	PHI	PHI 25	5	3	1:30	Punt
7	NO	NO 30	7	68	3:55	Field goal +3
8	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	0:52	Punt
9	NO	NO 30	5	39	1:39	Interception
10	PHI	PHI 25	5	40	0:34	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 9	10	63	4:02	Field goal +3
12	NO	NO 25	5	6	1:26	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 14	9	35	4:43	Punt
14	NO	NO 40	5	14	2:35	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 4	4	96	1:29	Touchdown +7
16	NO	NO 25	6	18	2:11	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 14	5	15	1:31	Punt
18	NO	NO 32	4	-8	2:02	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 41	4	9	1:29	Turnover on downs
20	NO	50	6	5	2:25	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 9	2	2	0:40	Defensive touchdown
22	PHI	PHI 25	8	32	1:52	Turnover on downs
23	NO	NO 48	8	33	3:35	End of game

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 96 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	18/22	205	0	1	6	-4.8
Taysom Hill	2/2	24	0	0	1	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	16	73	4.6	0	1.3
Taysom Hill	14	46	3.3	1	-1.5
Eno Benjamin	2	10	5.0	0	0.0
Adam Prentice	1	2	2.0	0	0.6
Andy Dalton	2	-2	-1.0	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	6	6	79	26%	5.3
Juwan Johnson	5	7	62	30%	1.8
Chris Olave	4	5	42	22%	-0.1
Adam Trautman	1	1	16	4%	1.0
Taysom Hill	1	1	10	4%	1.3
Eno Benjamin	1	1	9	4%	-0.8
Alvin Kamara	1	1	7	4%	0.4
Adam Prentice	1	1	4	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	3	4	0.0	0	1
Marshon Lattimore	6	0	0.0	1	2
Daniel Sorensen	4	2	0.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	5	0	0.0	0	1
Kaden Elliss	3	1	1.5	0	0
Cameron Jordan	4	0	3.0	0	0
David Onyemata	2	2	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	1	1	1.5	0	0
Andrew Dowell	1	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Roach	1	0	0.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	18/32	274	1	1	6	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Miles Sanders	12	61	5.1	0.4
Boston Scott	2	6	3.0	-0.4
Gardner Minshew	1	0	0.0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	9	13	115	0	41%	2.0
A.J. Brown	4	9	97	1	28%	-4.6
Dallas Goedert	3	6	45	0	19%	0.6
Kenneth Gainwell	2	2	17	0	6%	-0.6
Boston Scott	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Quez Watkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	7	2	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	4	4	1.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	7	1	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	4	3	0.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	4	3	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	5	0	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	3	2	2.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	2	1.0	0	0
Josiah Scott	3	1	0.0	1	1
Brandon Graham	2	1	2.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -5.5
Closing total: 41.5
NO moneyline: +198
PHI moneyline: -225

Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NO 8 days · PHI 8 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Nick Sirianni