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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q4 5:31, 2nd and 8, on Marshon Lattimore — 25.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 5:31, Saints +25.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:31 · 2nd and 8
Marshon Lattimore
Saints
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Taysom Hill's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:07 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryEagles
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Eagles’s 53 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Eagles 1.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.1% in week 16 against 42.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-7.0 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 64 snaps
Eagles1.0 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints44.7%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 47 early downs
Eagles66.7%leaned — passed early · +11.5 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →Saints9.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles0.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Saints25.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles33.3%inside their normal wobble · −17.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 52%
Tendencies room →Saints42.1%leaned — sent pressure · +23.9 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles16.1%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints18.4%leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles25.8%leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.1%, 23.9 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.8 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
18/32, 274 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-11.3 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected
Passing · NO
18/22, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
A.J. Brown banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +2.4 | 98% | 97% | 41% | 41% | 9/13, 115 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | +7.5 | 100% | 100% | 28% | 34% | 4/9, 97 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +5.6 | 68% | 90% | 26% | 28% | 6/6, 79 yd |
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | −4.5 | 45% | — | 4% | 0% | 2/2, 24 yd · 14 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | +4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 274 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.2 | +0.2 | 67% | 74% | 30% | 41% | 5/7, 62 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −2.1 | 58% | 65% | 4% | 0% | 16 car, 73 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | +0.7 | 61% | 94% | 22% | 36% | 4/5, 42 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −1.4 | 96% | 100% | 19% | 24% | 3/6, 45 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.1 | +0.3 | 40% | 24% | 0% | — | 12 car, 61 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 6.0 | +0.2 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 18/22, 205 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 3.7 | +0.9 | 27% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 2.9 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.1 | 68% | 42% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 1.6 | −0.1 | 36% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.6 | −1.7 | 33% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 51% | 61% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:31 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at PHI 11 · gained nothing · -6.70 EP · −27.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 96 yards from the PHI 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Eagles0Saints7Eagles0Saints10Eagles0Saints13Eagles0Saints13Eagles3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Saints13Eagles9Saints13Eagles10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Saints19Eagles10Saints20Eagles10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/22 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 6 | −4.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 6 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 26% | +5.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Daniel Sorensen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/32 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −11.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_NO_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| +1.8 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Dowell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 13 | 115 | 0 | 41% | +2.0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 9 | 97 | 1 | 28% | −4.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 19% | +0.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Scott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
