For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Saints157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −25.4 for EaglesExpected points −6.70 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:31NO +25% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:58PHI +20% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:35NO +12% win prob(8:35) (No Huddle) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to 50 for no gain (56-D.Davis).
1st · 6:47PHI +12% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to PHI 1 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).
2nd · 5:48PHI +11% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 89-R.Shaheed to PHI 6 for 58 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
4th · 7:54PHI +8% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 7-T.Hill to PHI 38 for 10 yards (2-D.Slay).
4th · 14:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taysom Hill's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:07 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:07Taysom Hill·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd8:35Wil Lutz·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–0
2nd3:08Wil Lutz·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+313–0
3rd11:03Jake Elliott·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+313–3
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.27Eagles: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Saints: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.30Eagles: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Saints: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.20Eagles: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Eagles’s 53 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Eagles 1.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.1% in week 16 against 42.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles25.8%
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.1%, 23.9 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.8 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:31) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at PHI 12. 23-M.Lattimore for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:31 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at PHI 11 · gained nothing · -6.70 EP · −27.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 96 yards from the PHI 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
36%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.3571%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.0571%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0162%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1675%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2029%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR5+0.0820%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1840%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Saints6Eagles0
Saints7Eagles0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 27
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Eagles 44
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Eagles 40
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 19
Saints10Eagles0
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Eagles 36
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
Saints13Eagles0
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Eagles 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
3rd quarter42 plays
Saints13Eagles3
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Saints 26
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 39
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Eagles 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Saints13Eagles9
Saints13Eagles10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 41
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 29
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 41 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Saints19Eagles10
Touchdown2 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 11
Saints20Eagles10
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 47
The period ended13 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Eagles 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
