2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Lumen Field

New York Jets

Seattle SeahawksWinner

NYJ -1 upsetU 43 ✓Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 23–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:54, SEA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:54NYJ 0 — SEA 0SEA ball · 1st & 10NYJ 55%

(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:54SEA +11% win prob(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).
Q1 · 11:23NYJ +11% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mims INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 6-Q.Diggs ran ob at SEA 37 for 27 yards (32-Mi.Carter).
Q1 · 0:10SEA +7% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to NYJ 7 for 41 yards (22-T.Adams).
Q3 · 14:09SEA +7% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to SEA 42 for 30 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:32SEA Touchdown
(13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — SEA 7
Q1 · 6:40SEA Field goal
(6:40) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — SEA 10
Q1 · 2:24NYJ Field goal
(2:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — SEA 10
Q2 · 14:19SEA Touchdown
(14:19) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-T.Mabry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — SEA 17
Q2 · 8:05NYJ Field goal
(8:05) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — SEA 17
Q3 · 6:07SEA Field goal
(6:07) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — SEA 20
Q4 · 5:45SEA Field goal
(5:45) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — SEA 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Seahawks
Offensive plays	67	71
Total yards	279	346 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	34%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Mike WhiteQB

23/46, 240 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.9 expected points added · -15.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

18/29, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.5 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

23 att, 133 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Ty JohnsonRB

8 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler ConklinTE

6/6 for 80 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DeeJay DallasRB

3/4 for 55 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 27	5	73	1:35	Touchdown +7
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	42	2:12	Interception
3	SEA	SEA 37	9	57	4:36	Field goal +3
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	49	4:18	Field goal +3
5	SEA	SEA 25	9	70	3:04	Touchdown +7
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	49	6:15	Field goal +3
7	SEA	SEA 25	5	-11	2:07	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 44	5	18	2:10	Turnover on downs
9	SEA	SEA 39	9	21	2:56	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 1	7	23	0:47	Fumble
11	NYJ	NYJ 28	8	33	3:00	Missed field goal
12	SEA	SEA 47	13	40	5:57	Field goal +3
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	0	0:18	Punt
14	SEA	NYJ 49	4	9	2:14	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 13	4	4	1:46	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 32	10	45	3:46	Missed field goal
17	NYJ	NYJ 31	4	8	1:40	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 14	6	14	1:47	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 29	1	0	0:15	Interception
20	SEA	NYJ 24	7	11	3:36	Field goal +3
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	11	1:45	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	NYJ 35	7	17	2:00	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	NYJ 18	10	42	1:56	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 73 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike White	23/46	240	0	2	4	-18.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ty Johnson	8	46	5.8	-0.2
Zonovan Knight	8	27	3.4	-2.6
Michael Carter	1	2	2.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Conklin	6	6	80	13%	4.6
Corey Davis	3	6	45	13%	-0.5
Braxton Berrios	1	1	24	2%	1.3
C.J. Uzomah	3	7	24	16%	-1.2
Elijah Moore	2	2	18	4%	1.9
Garrett Wilson	3	11	18	24%	-10.3
Zonovan Knight	2	3	17	7%	0.6
Ty Johnson	1	5	11	11%	-4.4
Michael Carter	2	3	3	7%	-0.9
Denzel Mims	0	1	0	2%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quincy Williams	5	5	0.0	0
Solomon Thomas	3	3	0.5	0
Tony Adams	4	2	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	5	1	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	4	0.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	2	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	3	1.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	3	1	0.0	4
Carl Lawson	3	1	1.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	18/29	183	2	0	4	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Walker	23	133	5.8	-0.4
DeeJay Dallas	7	43	6.1	1.3
Geno Smith	5	18	3.6	0.9
Godwin Igwebuike	3	4	1.3	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeeJay Dallas	3	4	55	0	14%	2.9
Noah Fant	2	3	40	0	11%	2.8
Colby Parkinson	5	7	36	1	25%	2.4
Laquon Treadwell	2	2	15	0	7%	2.0
Tyler Lockett	2	2	15	0	7%	0.6
Kenneth Walker	1	1	9	0	4%	1.0
Tyler Mabry	1	1	7	1	4%	2.0
Godwin Igwebuike	1	1	3	0	4%	-2.8
DK Metcalf	1	5	3	0	18%	-5.0
Cade Johnson	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tariq Woolen	4	3	0.0	0	1
Cody Barton	2	3	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	3	2	0.0	0	1
Michael Jackson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Jordyn Brooks	2	2	0.0	0	0
Darrell Taylor	2	1	2.5	0	1
Coby Bryant	3	0	0.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	2	1	0.0	0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	1	1.5	0	0
Myles Adams	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -1
Closing total: 43
NYJ moneyline: -113
SEA moneyline: +102

Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: NYJ 10 days · SEA 8 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Pete Carroll