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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 23, Jets 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:54, 1st and 10, on Kenneth Walker — 11.3 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:54 · 1st and 10
Kenneth Walker
Seahawks
(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).
Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 23–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:54, Seahawks +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Quandre DiggsSeahawksQ1 11:23(11:23) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mims INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 6-Q.Diggs ran ob at SEA 37 for 27 yards (32-Mi.Carter).
10.9pts
DeeJay DallasSeahawksQ1 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to NYJ 7 for 41 yards (22-T.Adams).
7.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.10 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Jets172 of 185 plays carry both curves
(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).
Swing +11.3 for SeahawksExpected points +3.63 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 9 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:54SEA +11% win prob(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).
1st · 11:23NYJ +11% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mims INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 6-Q.Diggs ran ob at SEA 37 for 27 yards (32-Mi.Carter).
1st · 0:10SEA +7% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to NYJ 7 for 41 yards (22-T.Adams).
3rd · 14:09SEA +7% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to SEA 42 for 30 yards (6-Q.Diggs).
2nd · 6:52NYJ +6% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 14 for -12 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers).
2nd · 11:50SEA +6% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 27-Z.Knight pushed ob at SEA 23 for 13 yards (8-C.Bryant).
2nd · 3:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 12-yard touchdown catch with 13:32 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
2nd8:05Greg Zuerlein·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+36–17
3rd6:07Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+36–20
4th5:45Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+36–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categorySeahawks
Jets0–7Seahawks
279Total yards346
4.2Yards per play4.9
34%Success rate39%
31%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
19First downs19
4Sacks taken4
3Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Jets: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Jets: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Jets: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.04Seahawks: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 67 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 71 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks18.0%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.3%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 59.9% and 1.2 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
66Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%70 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Walker right+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:54) 9-K.Walker right guard to NYJ 13 for 60 yards (29-L.Joyner).
Q1 14:54 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 27 · gained 60 · +3.63 EP · +12.2% win probability
170 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
36%
Yards
625
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.4375%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2751%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.2442%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2588%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.5517%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jets0Seahawks6
Jets0Seahawks7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Jets 12
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Seahawks 33
Jets0Seahawks10
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Jets 4
Jets3Seahawks10
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Jets 48
2nd quarter53 plays
Jets3Seahawks16
Jets3Seahawks17
Touchdown3 plays
Jets6Seahawks17
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Seahawks 13
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 26
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Seahawks 38
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Jets 31
The period ended13 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Jets 44
3rd quarter40 plays
No good8 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Seahawks 38
Jets6Seahawks20
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Jets 13
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Jets 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 43
4th quarter52 plays
No good6 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Jets 23
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 39
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 28
Intercepted1 play
Jets6Seahawks23
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 11
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 21
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Seahawks 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
