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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh16
BY 3final margin
RavensBaltimore13
Pittsburgh Steelers 16 at Baltimore Ravens 13. Final.
Ravens -1 upsetU 35.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Ravens 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:02, 3rd and 8, on Najee Harris — 20.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:02 · 3rd and 8
Najee Harris
Steelers
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
Ravens closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:02, Steelers +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.K. DobbinsRavensQ2 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to PIT 15 for 7 yards (35-A.Maulet). PENALTY on PIT-97-C.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 15.
12.3pts
Steven SimsSteelersQ4 2:06(2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 82-S.Sims to BAL 22 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams). Penalty on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Holding, declined.
18.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Ravens at 5 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
Swing −20.3 for RavensExpected points −4.24 for RavensThe model had Ravens 10 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:02BAL +20% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
4th · 2:06BAL +18% win prob(2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 82-S.Sims to BAL 22 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams). Penalty on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 0:22BAL +12% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to PIT 15 for 7 yards (35-A.Maulet). PENALTY on PIT-97-C.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 15.
2nd · 3:35PIT +12% win prob(3:35) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
4th · 11:48BAL +9% win prob(11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at BAL 15 for 21 yards (32-M.Williams) [50-J.Houston].
4th · 1:06BAL +8% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right tackle to BAL 10 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Najee Harris's 10-yard touchdown catch with 1:02 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:04Chris Boswell·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
2nd14:12Justin Tucker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–3
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.00Ravens: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Steelers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.15Ravens: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Steelers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Ravens’s 49 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 20.6% in week 7 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.8 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.9-swing turn from week 16.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 32.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 17 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, −19.4 pts, is past their previous low of −14.5 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Ravens31.0%
off script — got home · +16.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+2.79× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 16.4 points above their season mean of 14.6% and 2.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett pass+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
Q4 1:02 · Steelers · 3rd & 8 at BAL 10 · gained 10 · +4.24 EP · +22.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0843%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR27-0.1222%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2047%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3486%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers3Ravens0
Field goal17 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 2
The period ended15 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Steelers 17
2nd quarter43 plays
Steelers3Ravens3
Field goal3 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 12
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 15
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Ravens 30
Steelers3Ravens9
Steelers3Ravens10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Steelers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Steelers3Ravens13
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 33
Steelers6Ravens13
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 32
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to midfield
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 14
4th quarter49 plays
Steelers9Ravens13
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Ravens 13
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 23
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 44
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Steelers15Ravens13
Steelers16Ravens13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Ravens 10
Intercepted7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
