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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q4 1:02, 3rd and 8, on Najee Harris — 20.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:02, Steelers +20.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:02 · 3rd and 8
Najee Harris
Steelers
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Ravens at 5 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Najee Harris's 10-yard touchdown catch with 1:02 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Najee Harris10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny PickettLead never changed again+716–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Ravens’s 49 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 20.6% in week 7 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +2.8σ from their own normal
PIT's early-down pass rate, 32.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 17 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
PIT's pass rate over expected, −19.4 pts, is past their previous low of −14.5 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-19.4 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −15.7 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−2.12× that swing) · 68 snaps
Ravens-19.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.6 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Steelers32.7%leaned — ran early · −19.1 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 52 early downs
Ravens43.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Steelers6.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -46% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.5 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers33.3%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Ravens17.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Steelers12.5%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Ravens31.0%off script — got home · +16.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+2.79× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
BAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 16.4 points above their season mean of 14.6% and 2.8 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
15/27, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.2 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
14/21, 130 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.6 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mark Andrews banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 20.3 | +3.9 | 64% | 55% | 11% | 7% | 22 car, 111 yd · 2/3, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +6.3 | 94% | 96% | 45% | 43% | 9/9, 100 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 12.8 | +3.1 | 40% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 12 car, 76 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 168 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 2 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.2 | +1.7 | 33% | 52% | 25% | 5% | 3/5, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 9.6 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/21, 130 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 24 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.3 | +0.2 | 50% | 28% | 0% | — | 17 car, 93 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −1.7 | 77% | 93% | 22% | 19% | 3/6, 36 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +0.4 | 41% | 52% | 15% | 15% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.5 | −3.0 | 91% | 97% | 26% | 37% | 2/7, 35 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −2.8 | 73% | 97% | 15% | 21% | 2/4, 29 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.1 | 60% | 72% | 15% | 25% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.0 | 35% | 48% | 10% | 10% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −0.1 | 36% | 17% | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 0.2 | −1.4 | 17% | 12% | 0% | — | 3 car, 2 yd |
| Andy IsabellaWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justice HillRB | 0.0 | — | 33% | 52% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 58% | 36% | 5% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
Q4 1:02 · Steelers · 3rd & 8 at BAL 10 · gained 10 · +4.24 EP · +22.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Steelers3
Ravens0Steelers3Ravens3Steelers3Ravens9Steelers3Ravens10Steelers3Ravens13Steelers6Ravens13Steelers9Ravens13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Steelers15Ravens13Steelers16Ravens13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/27 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Gunner Olszewski |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 22% | +0.8 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 14/21 | 130 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_PIT_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 35.5; the game landed 29 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 | +1.6 |
| 26% |
| −0.7 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 15% | +0.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11% | +3.0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 11% | +3.6 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arthur Maulet | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarvin Leal | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 9 | 100 | 0 | 45% | +7.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 25% | +0.1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 15% | +0.8 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Williams | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Broderick Washington | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshad Nichols | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
