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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

16

Baltimore Ravens

13

BAL -1 upsetU 35.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:02, BAL +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 1:02PIT 15 — BAL 13PIT ball · 3rd & 8PIT 63%

(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:02BAL +20% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
  2. Q4 · 2:06BAL +18% win prob(2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 82-S.Sims to BAL 22 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams). Penalty on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Holding, declined.
  3. Q2 · 0:22BAL +12% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to PIT 15 for 7 yards (35-A.Maulet). PENALTY on PIT-97-C.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 15.
  4. Q2 · 3:35PIT +12% win prob(3:35) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:04PIT Field goal

    (7:04) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — BAL 0
  2. Q2 · 14:12BAL Field goal

    (14:12) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — BAL 3
  3. Q2 · 0:11BAL Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — BAL 10
  4. Q3 · 9:35BAL Field goal

    (9:35) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — BAL 13
  5. Q3 · 3:47PIT Field goal

    (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — BAL 13
  6. Q4 · 9:47PIT Field goal

    (9:47) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 9 — BAL 13
  7. Q4 · 1:02PIT Touchdown

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 16 — BAL 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersRavens
Offensive plays6849
Total yards353 (edge)240
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.15 (edge)0.00
Success rate56% (edge)43%
Dropback rate43%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)-0.14
Third downs10/16 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)14
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

15/27, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

14/21, 130 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

22 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

17 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

9/9 for 100 yds, 0 TD

45% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

3/6 for 36 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 2516787:59Field goal +3
2BALBAL 2716617:52Field goal +3
3PITPIT 257213:19Punt
4BALBAL 6492:04Punt
5PITPIT 2611445:16Missed field goal
6BALBAL 3812593:23Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 24200:07End of half
8BALBAL 259575:29Field goal +3
9PITPIT 2513435:49Field goal +3
10BALBAL 256252:56Punt
11PITPIT 513806:02Field goal +3
12BALPIT 405-21:03Punt
13PITPIT 8672:09Punt
14BALBAL 36482:16Punt
15PITPIT 2012803:20Touchdown +7
16BALBAL 256230:43Interception
17PITPIT 25100:13End of game

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett15/271681024.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris221115.001.0
Jaylen Warren12766.302.4
Gunner Olszewski166.000.7
Derek Watt133.000.6
Kenny Pickett520.401.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Pat Freiermuth3636022%0.8
Diontae Johnson2735026%-0.7
Steven Sims3434015%0.3
George Pickens2429015%0.0
Jaylen Warren3322011%3.0
Najee Harris2312111%3.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane710.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick350.011
Mark Robinson250.000
Terrell Edmunds420.001
Arthur Maulet310.000
Levi Wallace110.000
Devin Bush110.000
DeMarvin Leal110.000
T.J. Watt111.000
Larry Ogunjobi110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley14/211301114.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins17935.50-0.0
Tyler Huntley7243.40-1.9
Gus Edwards320.70-2.2
Andy Isabella111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews99100045%7.6
Isaiah Likely3512125%0.1
DeSean Jackson129010%-0.9
Demarcus Robinson139015%0.8
Josh Oliver01005%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marcus Williams540.001
Roquan Smith250.001
Brandon Stephens610.002
Chuck Clark240.002
Broderick Washington230.001
Kyle Hamilton410.000
Brent Urban220.001
Patrick Queen220.000
Odafe Oweh310.000
Rayshad Nichols130.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -1
Closing total
35.5
PIT moneyline
+110
BAL moneyline
-121

Ravens closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 35.5; the game landed 29 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
44°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
PIT 8 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.