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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

37

Las Vegas Raiders

34

SF -10 no coverO 41.5 ✓Dome

San Francisco 49ers 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:53, SF +55% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4LV ↑SF ↓
OT · 7:53SF 34 — LV 34LV ball · 2nd & 10LV 59%

(7:53) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson [97-N.Bosa] at SF 37. 31-T.Gipson pushed ob at LV 7 for 56 yards (3-J.Stidham). PENALTY on LV-10-M.Hollins, Low Block, 4 yards, enforce

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 7:53SF +55% win prob(7:53) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson [97-N.Bosa] at SF 37. 31-T.Gipson pushed ob at LV 7 for 56 yards (3-J.Stidham). PENALTY on LV-10-M.Hollins, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at LV 7.
  2. Q4 · 0:02SF +46% win prob(:02) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. Q3 · 10:34LV +19% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-T.Hufanga]. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Illegal Contact, declined.
  4. Q4 · 14:53SF +13% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 95-D.Jackson (92-K.Hyder) at LV 42. 95-D.Jackson to LV 42 for no gain (3-J.Stidham).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:45LV Touchdown

    (11:45) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 3-J.Stidham pass deep right to 83-D.Waller for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 0 — LV 7
  2. Q1 · 7:09SF Touchdown

    (7:09) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — LV 7
  3. Q1 · 1:49LV Field goal

    (1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — LV 10
  4. Q2 · 9:45SF Touchdown

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — LV 10
  5. Q2 · 0:15LV Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — LV 17
  6. Q3 · 10:34LV Touchdown

    (10:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-T.Hufanga]. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — LV 24
  7. Q3 · 5:28SF Touchdown

    (5:28) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — LV 24
  8. Q4 · 12:39SF Field goal

    (12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — LV 24
  9. Q4 · 6:48SF Field goal

    (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 27 — LV 24
  10. Q4 · 4:13LV Field goal

    (4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: SF 27 — LV 27
  11. Q4 · 2:23SF Touchdown

    (2:23) 24-J.Mason left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 34 — LV 27
  12. Q4 · 1:14LV Touchdown

    (1:14) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 34 — LV 34
  13. OT · 6:57SF Field goal

    (6:57) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 37 — LV 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersRaiders
Offensive plays6066
Total yards457500 (edge)
Yards per play7.6 (edge)7.6
Expected points added / play0.31 (edge)0.06
Success rate58% (edge)53%
Dropback rate58%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.220.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.42 (edge)-0.17
Third downs4/8 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)911 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2525
Sacks taken00
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Raiders outgained 49ers 500–457 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Jarrett StidhamQB

23/34, 365 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

6.2 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

22/35, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.8 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

19 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

7/11 for 153 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · -3.9 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

9/12 for 101 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 308703:20Touchdown +7
2SFSF 3310674:34Touchdown +7
3LVLV 2511645:21Field goal +3
4SFSF 2515507:07Touchdown +7
5LVLV 2511685:09Turnover on downs
6SFSF 2481:56Punt
7LVSF 449442:23Touchdown +7
8SFSF 25200:10End of half
9SFSF 25531:44Punt
10LVLV 167702:54Touchdown +7
11SFSF 2510855:00Touchdown +7
12LVLV 25591:20Punt
13SFSF 143411:38Interception
14LVLV 186362:38Interception
15SFLV 426172:12Field goal +3
16LVLV 257162:52Punt
17SFSF 357592:58Field goal +3
18LVLV 258412:36Field goal +3
19SFSF 257751:51Touchdown +7
20LVLV 255671:06Touchdown +7
21SFSF 258521:11Missed field goal
22LVLV 255152:21Interception
23SFLV 3200:46Field goal +3

13 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy22/352842107.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey191216.416.3
Brandon Aiyuk11616.001.1
Jordan Mason2136.511.5
Kyle Juszczyk199.000.4
Danny Gray199.000.8
Tyrion Davis-Price155.000.4
Brock Purdy2-3-1.50-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandon Aiyuk912101135%5.0
Christian McCaffrey6972026%2.4
Jauan Jennings234609%3.1
Ray-Ray McCloud124206%2.2
George Kittle4823124%-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner380.000
Talanoa Hufanga450.000
Dre Greenlaw250.000
Azeez Al-Shaair520.000
Deommodore Lenoir430.001
Jimmie Ward510.000
Charvarius Ward240.000
Tashaun Gipson220.011
Arik Armstead310.000
Oren Burks110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jarrett Stidham23/343653206.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs17694.11-3.9
Jarrett Stidham7344.901.9
Brandon Bolden8324.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams711153234%-3.9
Darren Waller3572116%4.3
Foster Moreau335509%4.0
Mack Hollins3440013%1.5
Josh Jacobs4526016%0.5
Hunter Renfrow3419013%3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Harvey Langi720.000
Nate Hobbs620.001
Duron Harmon610.000
Luke Masterson240.000
Roderic Teamer220.000
Bilal Nichols120.000
Clelin Ferrell120.000
Trevon Moehrig120.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao210.000
Kyle Peko030.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -10
Closing total
41.5
SF moneyline
-453
LV moneyline
+371

49ers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 71 — over by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
SF 8 days · LV 8 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Josh McDaniels