For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at OT 7:53, 2nd and 10, on Tashaun Gipson — 54.7 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:53 · 2nd and 10
Tashaun Gipson
49ers
(7:53) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson [97-N.Bosa] at SF 37. 31-T.Gipson pushed ob at LV 7 for 56 yards (3-J.Stidham). PENALTY on LV-10-M.Hollins, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at LV 7.
San Francisco 49ers 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:53, 49ers +54.7% win probability on one snap.
54.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.42 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Raiders at +0.06 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 23.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(7:53) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson [97-N.Bosa] at SF 37. 31-T.Gipson pushed ob at LV 7 for 56 yards (3-J.Stidham). PENALTY on LV-10-M.Hollins, Low Block, 4 yards, enforce
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robbie Gould's 23-yard field goal with 6:57 left in overtime put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Robbie Gould23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+337–3413 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryRaiders
49ers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Raiders’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Raiders 6.
Raiders outgained 49ers 500-457 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.0% in week 16 against 31.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-1.1 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 60 snaps
Raiders-2.8 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 84%
Tendencies room →49ers55.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 52 early downs
Raiders52.7%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →49ers17.1%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders31.6%leaned — faked the run · +10.8 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
Raiders33.3%right on their number · −6.1 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 57%
Tendencies room →49ers21.1%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Raiders31.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →49ers23.7%leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Raiders11.4%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.7%, 6.2 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
23/34, 365 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
6.2 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected
Passing · SF
22/35, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.8 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Davante Adams banked 17.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 34.3 | +17.1 | 89% | 87% | 34% | 48% | 7/11, 153 yd, 2 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 31.3 | +4.4 | 85% | 86% | 26% | 3% | 19 car, 121 yd, 1 TD · 6/9, 72 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.7 | +2.4 | 96% | 97% | 35% | 43% | 1 car, 16 yd · 9/12, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Jarrett StidhamQB · Starter QB | 26.0 | +4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 365 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 7 car, 34 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 19.5 | −0.2 | 67% | 61% | 16% | 3% | 17 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 26 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.1 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 284 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -3 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.2 | +4.0 | 57% | 55% | 16% | 31% | 3/5, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | −6.0 | 93% | 97% | 24% | 26% | 4/8, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +3.8 | 79% | 58% | 9% | 5% | 3/3, 55 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 7.3 | +2.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +2.3 | 86% | 71% | 13% | 11% | 3/4, 40 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | 0.0 | 88% | 91% | 9% | 21% | 2/3, 46 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +2.5 | 42% | 57% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 42 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.3 | 46% | 58% | 13% | 1% | 3/4, 19 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 3.2 | −3.3 | 21% | 13% | 0% | — | 8 car, 32 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.9 | +0.3 | 46% | 40% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Danny GrayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tay MartinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:53) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson [97-N.Bosa] at SF 37. 31-T.Gipson pushed ob at LV 7 for 56 yards (3-J.Stidham). PENALTY on LV-10-M.Hollins, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at LV 7.
OT 7:53 · Raiders · 2nd & 10 at LV 40 · gained nothing · -7.83 EP · −54.7% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 185 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 84 yards from the LV 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Raiders649ers0Raiders7How the play was built
A man in motion.
49ers6Raiders749ers7Raiders749ers7Raiders1049ers13Raiders1049ers14Raiders10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
49ers14Raiders1649ers14Raiders17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
49ers14Raiders2349ers14Raiders2449ers20Raiders2449ers21Raiders24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
49ers24Raiders24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
49ers27Raiders2449ers27Raiders27How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
49ers33Raiders2749ers34Raiders27How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers34Raiders3349ers34Raiders34How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
49ers37Raiders34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/35 | 284 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9 | 12 | 101 | 1 | 35% | +5.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 26% | +2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 23/34 | 365 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +6.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_SF_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 71 — over by 29.5.
Conditions and crew
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Danny Gray | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 9% | +3.1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 6% | +2.2 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 24% | −3.9 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Arik Armstead | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
| 69 |
| 4.1 |
| 1 |
| −3.9 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 153 | 2 | 34% | −3.9 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 | 16% | +4.3 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 9% | +4.0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% | +0.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Langi | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duron Harmon | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Masterson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Nichols | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Peko | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
