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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
13
38
San Francisco 49ers 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:59, ARI +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson at ARI 30. 31-T.Gipson to ARI 18 for 12 yards (83-G.Dortch).
How the points landed
(14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-S.Ebukam]. 37 YAC
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 0(10:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 25 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 7(12:12) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 14(4:44) (Shotgun) 23-C.Clement up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 14(:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 21(11:36) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 28(5:50) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 31(1:06) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 38Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Cardinals | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 49 | 61 |
| Total yards | 256 | 311 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.2 (edge) | 5.1 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.36 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Success rate | 39% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 43% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.45 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.21 | -0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/10 | 6/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 0 (edge) |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
14/18, 180 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · SF
15/20, 178 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
6.0 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | ARI 20 | 4 | 80 | 0:42 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 2 | SF | SF 25 | 8 | 75 | 3:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 4 | SF | SF 38 | 4 | -5 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 5 | ARI | ARI 30 | 5 | 19 | 2:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | SF | ARI 39 | 4 | -19 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 7 | ARI | ARI 26 | 4 | 15 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 8 | SF | SF 30 | 7 | 18 | 2:36 | Punt | |
| 9 | ARI | ARI 13 | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | Interception | |
| 10 | SF | ARI 18 | 4 | 13 | 1:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | ARI | ARI 25 | 14 | 75 | 7:26 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | SF | SF 34 | 11 | 66 | 4:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | ARI | ARI 25 | 2 | 1 | 0:19 | End of half | |
| 14 | SF | SF 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | ARI | ARI 15 | 4 | 5 | 1:09 | Interception | |
| 16 | SF | ARI 34 | 8 | 25 | 4:36 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | ARI | ARI 14 | 4 | 14 | 1:34 | Fumble | |
| 18 | SF | ARI 28 | 7 | 28 | 3:12 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | ARI | ARI 33 | 10 | 33 | 3:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | SF | SF 34 | 4 | 8 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 21 | ARI | ARI 12 | 4 | 8 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 22 | SF | SF 29 | 5 | 21 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 23 | ARI | ARI 3 | 4 | 11 | 2:15 | Interception | |
| 24 | SF | ARI 13 | 4 | 6 | 2:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | ARI | ARI 7 | 1 | 0 | 0:27 | End of game |
8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 14/18 | 180 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6.6 |
| Trace McSorley | 6/9 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 | 0.9 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Trace McSorley | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Keaontay Ingram |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 19% | 1.6 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11% | 3.9 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Simmons | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dogbe | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/20 | 178 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| -0.5 |
| David Blough | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | -4.4 |
| 0.5 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 15% | 0.3 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15% | -8.2 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | -0.8 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 0.2 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | -0.3 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11% | -4.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jace Whittaker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.J. Watt | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Turner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Matthew | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Vallejo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Jordan Mason | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | -5.6 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 25% | 2.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 15% | 4.5 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 30% | 4.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 1.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | 0.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | 0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Willis | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Odum | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
