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polling · 300s tick · as of 3:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q2 13:59, 1st and 10, on Tashaun Gipson — 7.7 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:59, 49ers +7.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:59 · 1st and 10
Tashaun Gipson
49ers
(13:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson at ARI 30. 31-T.Gipson to ARI 18 for 12 yards (83-G.Dortch).
7.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.36 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(13:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson at ARI 30. 31-T.Gipson to ARI 18 for 12 yards (83-G.Dortch).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 21-yard touchdown catch with 10:49 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
A.J. Green77-yd TD catch77-yard touchdown catchfrom David Blough · kick no good, wide left+66–0
Christian McCaffrey21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+76–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 49 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 61 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, 49ers 7.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ARI's play-action rate, 32.3%, sat 17.4 points above their season number of 14.8% — they faked the run by 2.1 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-1.1 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 49 snaps
49ers-11.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cardinals59.5%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 37 early downs
49ers38.3%inside their normal wobble · −9.4 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cardinals32.3%off script — faked the run · +17.4 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers30.8%leaned — faked the run · +10.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals50.0%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Cardinals42.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers19.4%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Cardinals23.1%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers19.4%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.3%, 17.4 points above their season mean of 14.8% and 2.1 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
46 dressed · 9 inactive
Inactive · 9
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
14/18, 180 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · SF
15/20, 178 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
6.0 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Elijah Mitchell banked 13.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | +0.7 | 82% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 178 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 7 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.9 | +4.6 | 71% | 88% | 30% | 27% | 4/6, 29 yd, 2 TD |
| A.J. GreenWR · Featured Receiver | 18.1 | +11.3 | 63% | 68% | 19% | 46% | 3/5, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 17.5 | +13.2 | 16% | 15% | 0% | — | 5 car, 55 yd, 2 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 16.9 | +5.0 | 48% | 65% | 15% | 0% | 10 car, 45 yd · 3/3, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Corey ClementRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | +2.6 | 69% | 71% | 15% | 0% | 8 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 25 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | +1.2 | 73% | 85% | 25% | 67% | 4/5, 59 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +2.2 | 69% | 68% | 15% | 3% | 2 car, 15 yd · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.1 | 83% | 81% | 11% | 7% | 3/3, 41 yd |
| David BloughQB · Starter QB | 5.0 | +0.8 | 67% | — | 0% | — | 14/18, 180 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.6 | 68% | 77% | 15% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 20 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 3.9 | +1.7 | 44% | 38% | 5% | 5% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 26 yd |
| Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.3 | 33% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 2.8 | −3.4 | 23% | 8% | 0% | — | 8 car, 28 yd |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB | 2.7 | −1.2 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 8 car, 27 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB · Receiving Back | 2.3 | −3.1 | 37% | 29% | 11% | 0% | 3 car, 5 yd · 2/3, -2 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.0 | 42% | 58% | 10% | 13% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −4.2 | 85% | 84% | 15% | 56% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| Andre BaccelliaWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 21% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ty'Son WilliamsRB | 1.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trace McSorleyQB | 0.5 | −3.4 | 33% | — | 0% | — | 6/9, 29 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 13 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-S.Ebukam]. 37 YAC
Q1 14:34 · Cardinals · 2nd & 7 at ARI 23 · gained 77 · +7.01 EP · +18.6% win probability
144 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, manual charting on 127. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Cardinals6
49ers0Cardinals649ers6Cardinals649ers7How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals649ers13Cardinals649ers14Cardinals1249ers14Cardinals1349ers14Cardinals1349ers20Cardinals1349ers21Cardinals1349ers27Cardinals1349ers28Cardinals1349ers31Cardinals1349ers37Cardinals1349ers38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 14/18 | 180 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −6.6 |
| Trace McSorley | 6/9 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Trace McSorley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 19% | +1.6 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11% | +3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Simmons | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dogbe | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/20 | 178 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_ARI_SF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| David Blough | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15% | −8.2 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11% | −4.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jace Whittaker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.J. Watt | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Turner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Matthew | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Vallejo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
| 55 |
| 11.0 |
| 2 |
| +4.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jordan Mason | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 15% | +4.5 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 30% | +4.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Willis | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Odum | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
