2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -14 ✓O 40 ✓49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 25.

San Francisco 49ers 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:59, ARI +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:59ARI 6 — SF 7ARI ball · 1st & 10SF 84%

(13:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson at ARI 30. 31-T.Gipson to ARI 18 for 12 yards (83-G.Dortch).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:59ARI +8% win prob(13:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Gipson at ARI 30. 31-T.Gipson to ARI 18 for 12 yards (83-G.Dortch).
Q1 · 4:33ARI +6% win prob(4:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 42 for -17 yards (9-I.Simmons).
Q1 · 3:52SF +5% win prob(3:52) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 26 for 10 yards (30-G.Odum).
Q1 · 8:29ARI +4% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 33 for -6 yards (99-J.Watt).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:34ARI Touchdown
(14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Blough pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-S.Ebukam]. 37 YAC
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 0
Q1 · 10:49SF Touchdown
(10:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 25 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 7
Q2 · 12:12SF Touchdown
(12:12) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 6 — SF 14
Q2 · 4:44ARI Touchdown
(4:44) (Shotgun) 23-C.Clement up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 14
Q2 · 0:24SF Touchdown
(:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 21
Q3 · 11:36SF Touchdown
(11:36) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 28
Q3 · 5:50SF Field goal
(5:50) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 31
Q3 · 1:06SF Touchdown
(1:06) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	49	61
Total yards	256	311 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	-0.36	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	39%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

David BloughQB

14/18, 180 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

15/20, 178 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

6.0 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

5 att, 55 yds, 2 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

10 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

3/5 for 91 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

4/5 for 59 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 20	4	80	0:42	Touchdown +6
2	SF	SF 25	8	75	3:38	Touchdown +7
3	ARI	ARI 25	5	-5	1:33	Punt
4	SF	SF 38	4	-5	1:36	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 30	5	19	2:15	Turnover on downs
6	SF	ARI 39	4	-19	1:35	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 26	4	15	2:06	Punt
8	SF	SF 30	7	18	2:36	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 13	1	0	0:09	Interception
10	SF	ARI 18	4	13	1:43	Touchdown +7
11	ARI	ARI 25	14	75	7:26	Touchdown +7
12	SF	SF 34	11	66	4:22	Touchdown +7
13	ARI	ARI 25	2	1	0:19	End of half
14	SF	SF 25	9	75	3:28	Touchdown +7
15	ARI	ARI 15	4	5	1:09	Interception
16	SF	ARI 34	8	25	4:36	Field goal +3
17	ARI	ARI 14	4	14	1:34	Fumble
18	SF	ARI 28	7	28	3:12	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 33	10	33	3:50	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 34	4	8	2:21	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 12	4	8	2:01	Punt
22	SF	SF 29	5	21	3:05	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 3	4	11	2:15	Interception
24	SF	ARI 13	4	6	2:02	Turnover on downs
25	ARI	ARI 7	1	0	0:27	End of game

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
David Blough	14/18	180	1	2	3	-6.6
Trace McSorley	6/9	29	0	1	0	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Corey Clement	8	23	2.9	1	0.9
Greg Dortch	2	15	7.5	0	0.9
Trace McSorley	3	13	4.3	0	1.2
Pharoh Cooper	2	7	3.5	0	-0.2
Keaontay Ingram	3	5	1.7	0	-0.5
David Blough	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	3	5	91	1	19%	1.6
Trey McBride	3	3	41	0	11%	3.9
Greg Dortch	4	4	30	0	15%	0.5
Corey Clement	3	4	25	0	15%	0.3
Marquise Brown	1	4	7	0	15%	-8.2
Pharoh Cooper	2	2	6	0	7%	-0.8
Andre Baccellia	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Ty'Son Williams	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.3
Keaontay Ingram	2	3	-2	0	11%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Isaiah Simmons	5	4	1.0	0
Michael Dogbe	3	5	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	3	4	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	3	0.0	0
Jace Whittaker	2	4	0.0	1
J.J. Watt	3	2	2.0	1
Ezekiel Turner	2	3	0.0	0
Christian Matthew	2	2	0.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	1	2	0.0	0
Stephen Jones	1	1	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	15/20	178	3	0	4	6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	5	55	11.0	2	4.9
Christian McCaffrey	10	45	4.5	0	0.8
Jordan Mason	8	28	3.5	0	-1.6
Tyrion Davis-Price	8	27	3.4	0	-5.6
Brock Purdy	4	7	1.8	0	-1.9
Deebo Samuel	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	3	3.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	4	5	59	0	25%	2.3
Christian McCaffrey	3	3	34	1	15%	4.5
George Kittle	4	6	29	2	30%	4.0
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	26	0	5%	1.3
Deebo Samuel	2	3	20	0	15%	0.5
Jauan Jennings	1	2	10	0	10%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	7	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	5	2	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	5	1	0.0	0	0
Oren Burks	2	2	0.0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Willis	2	1	1.0	0	0
George Odum	2	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Bosa	2	0	1.0	0	0
Jordan Mason	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -14
Closing total: 40
ARI moneyline: +753
SF moneyline: -1061

49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.