2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -11 pushO 39 ✓Bengals closed -11 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–16. Biggest swing: Q1 5:01, BAL +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:01BAL 0 — CIN 3BAL ball · 1st & 10CIN 85%

(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:01BAL +5% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).
Q1 · 7:39CIN +4% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to BAL 45 for 6 yards (41-D.Worley).
Q1 · 4:41CIN +3% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 26 for 22 yards (32-M.Williams).
Q1 · 9:37CIN +3% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-H.Hurst to CIN 44 for 3 yards (32-M.Williams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:05CIN Field goal
(5:05) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CIN 3
Q1 · 1:18CIN Touchdown
(1:18) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CIN 10
Q2 · 14:17CIN Touchdown
(14:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-J.Houston]. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CIN 17
Q2 · 2:00BAL Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 17
Q2 · 0:36CIN Touchdown
(:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown sacked at BAL -1 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at BAL -5. TOUCHDOWN. Officially a sack for -6 yards. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 24
Q3 · 10:37BAL Field goal
(10:37) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 24
Q3 · 6:31CIN Field goal
(6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 27
Q3 · 2:04BAL Field goal
(2:04) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — CIN 27
Q4 · 12:19BAL Field goal
(12:19) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 16 — CIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	73	64
Total yards	386 (edge)	257
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.32	-0.20 (edge)
Success rate	34% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	63%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	-0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Ravens outgained Bengals 386–257 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Anthony BrownQB

19/44, 286 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.0 expected points added · -21.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/42, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Kenyan DrakeRB

16 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Justice HillRB

7 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

8/13 for 103 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

8/13 for 86 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 29	6	16	2:10	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 21	17	63	7:49	Field goal +3
3	BAL	BAL 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
4	CIN	BAL 48	9	48	3:38	Touchdown +7
5	BAL	BAL 25	4	5	1:16	Interception
6	CIN	BAL 32	4	32	0:43	Touchdown +7
7	BAL	BAL 24	9	57	5:20	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 29	6	12	2:47	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 24	11	66	4:08	Touchdown +7
10	CIN	CIN 27	6	12	1:10	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 5	3	-5	0:17	Defensive touchdown
12	BAL	BAL 25	7	24	0:30	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	0:49	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 40	4	5	1:48	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 9	2	-5	0:57	Fumble
16	BAL	CIN 9	4	1	0:52	Field goal +3
17	CIN	CIN 25	9	65	4:07	Field goal +3
18	BAL	BAL 25	12	42	4:28	Field goal +3
19	CIN	CIN 25	5	9	1:02	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 18	9	73	3:40	Field goal +3
21	CIN	CIN 40	5	-3	1:38	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 11	4	-1	1:16	Punt
23	CIN	50	4	9	2:05	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 41	5	14	1:23	Turnover on downs
25	CIN	CIN 45	4	6	2:45	Punt
26	BAL	BAL 20	1	47	0:14	Fumble
27	CIN	CIN 32	4	6	1:49	Punt
28	BAL	BAL 20	7	42	1:07	End of game

8 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 73 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Anthony Brown	19/44	286	0	2	4	-15.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	16	60	3.8	1	-2.8
Justice Hill	7	34	4.9	0	-0.6
Gus Edwards	4	16	4.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Isaiah Likely	8	13	103	31%	-3.1
Sammy Watkins	2	4	79	10%	1.5
Charlie Kolar	4	6	49	14%	2.6
Demarcus Robinson	2	9	24	21%	-6.2
Kenyan Drake	2	5	19	12%	-0.5
Tylan Wallace	1	1	12	2%	0.8
James Proche	0	3	0	7%	-3.7
Josh Oliver	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Roquan Smith	9	4	0
Marcus Williams	5	2	1
Kyle Hamilton	4	1	1
Patrick Queen	3	1	0
Daryl Worley	3	1	2
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	1	0
Chuck Clark	1	2	0
Demarcus Robinson	2	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	0	2	1
Marlon Humphrey	2	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/42	215	1	0	2	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	27	2.5	1	-1.8
Samaje Perine	6	18	3.0	0	-1.5
Joe Burrow	3	10	3.3	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	8	13	86	1	33%	1.7
Tyler Boyd	5	7	51	0	18%	3.1
Joe Mixon	5	5	41	0	13%	0.8
Hayden Hurst	4	5	14	0	13%	1.3
Trenton Irwin	1	2	12	0	5%	0.1
Tee Higgins	1	7	7	0	18%	-3.6
Samaje Perine	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cam Taylor-Britt	3	6	0.0	0	1
Logan Wilson	4	4	0.0	0	1
Jessie Bates	2	5	0.0	1	1
Eli Apple	6	0	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	1	3	0.0	0	1
Joseph Ossai	1	3	1.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	1	2
Tre Flowers	3	0	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	1	1.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -11
Closing total: 39
BAL moneyline: +474
CIN moneyline: -603

Bengals closed -11 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 39; the game landed 43 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: BAL 7 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.