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Baltimore Ravens 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 27. Final.
Bengals -11 pushO 39 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Ravens 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:01, 1st and 10, on Jessie Bates — 4.7 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:01 · 1st and 10
Jessie Bates
Bengals
(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).
Bengals closed -11 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Cincinnati Bengals 27–16. Biggest swing: Q1 5:01, Bengals +4.7% win probability on one snap.
4.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Hayden HurstBengalsQ1 7:39(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to BAL 45 for 6 yards (41-D.Worley).
3.6pts
Tyler BoydBengalsQ1 4:41(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 26 for 22 yards (32-M.Williams).
3.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 4 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.17 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.20 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.32 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).
Swing +4.7 for BengalsExpected points +3.92 for BengalsThe model had Ravens 19 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:01BAL +5% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).
1st · 7:39CIN +4% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to BAL 45 for 6 yards (41-D.Worley).
1st · 4:41CIN +3% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 26 for 22 yards (32-M.Williams).
1st · 9:37CIN +3% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-H.Hurst to CIN 44 for 3 yards (32-M.Williams).
3rd · 11:38BAL +3% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 3 for -6 yards (90-D.Ojabo). FUMBLES (90-D.Ojabo) [90-D.Ojabo], touched at CIN 4, RECOVERED by BAL-6-P.Queen at CIN 9.
2nd · 15:00BAL +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass short middle intended for 10-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hilton at BAL 37. 21-M.Hilton to BAL 32 for 5 yards (10-D.Robinson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 34-yard field goal with 5:05 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:05Evan McPherson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+30–3
3rd10:37Justin Tucker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+310–24
3rd6:31Evan McPherson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+310–27
3rd2:04Justin Tucker·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+313–27
4th12:19Justin Tucker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+316–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens6–2Bengals
386Total yards257
5.3Yards per play4.0
34%Success rate33%
38%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
20First downs14
4Sacks taken2
4Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Ravens: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.20Bengals: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Ravens: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.17Bengals: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Ravens: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.27Bengals: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Bengals’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bengals 4.
NoteRavens outgained Bengals 386-257 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.0% in week 17 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals15.2%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 13.3%, 13.2 points below their season mean of 26.5% and 1.3 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
66Ben ClevelandG · Every snap100%78 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%78 snaps
12Anthony BrownQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%78 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Full-time91%71 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time90%70 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Full-time88%69 snaps
17Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
10Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
82Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation50%39 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational44%34 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational44%34 snaps
3James ProcheWR · Rotational42%33 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational24%19 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational22%17 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational10%8 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Situational9%7 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 8
Marcus PetersCBRayshad NicholsDTBrandon StephensFSKevin ZeitlerGLamar JacksonQBTyler HuntleyQBJ.K. DobbinsRBMark AndrewsTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Brown pass−11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates [92-B.Hill] at CIN 48. 30-J.Bates to BAL 48 for 4 yards (80-I.Likely).
Q1 5:01 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 25 · gained nothing · -3.92 EP · −10.8% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 76 yards from the BAL 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
34%
Yards
643
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1077%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR25-0.2336%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.2374%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.4890%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3170%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4520%
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5-0.52100%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 45
Ravens0Bengals3
Field goal17 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Ravens 16
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Ravens0Bengals9
Ravens0Bengals10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Ravens 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
2nd quarter56 plays
Intercepted1 play
Ravens0Bengals16
Ravens0Bengals17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 26
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Bengals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 43
Ravens6Bengals17
Ravens7Bengals17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Bengals 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 39
Ravens7Bengals23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Ravens 6
Ravens7Bengals24
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 37
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 45
Fumble lost2 plays
Ravens10Bengals24
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 8
Ravens10Bengals27
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 8
Ravens13Bengals27
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 33
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 32
4th quarter45 plays
Ravens16Bengals27
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bengals 9
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 13
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 41
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Bengals 45
Punt6 plays
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 20 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
