2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina PanthersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -3.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:24, CAR +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:24CAR 7 — NO 7NO ball · 4th & 12NO 68%

(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:24CAR +36% win prob(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q4 · 1:47CAR +32% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen at CAR 49. 25-D.Sorensen pushed ob at CAR 35 for 14 yards (12-S.Smith).
Q4 · 0:03NO +20% win prob(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 · 0:19NO +14% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-T.Marshall to NO 24 for 21 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 32-T.Mathieu). Pass 12, YAC 9

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:08NO Touchdown
(11:08) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 20 (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 7
Q3 · 6:52CAR Touchdown
(6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left tackle to NO 1 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), recovered by CAR-73-M.Jordan at NO -3. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — NO 7
Q4 · 0:03CAR Field goal
(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 10 — NO 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	58	58
Total yards	203	304 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	-0.18 (edge)
Success rate	41%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	34%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	-0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.08
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

15/25, 171 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

5/15, 43 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.9 expected points added · -21.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

23 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

21 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

5/12 for 60 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · -6.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

3/4 for 34 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	10	75	3:59	Touchdown +7
2	CAR	CAR 25	7	16	3:09	Punt
3	NO	NO 18	7	27	2:48	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 13	4	9	2:00	Punt
5	NO	NO 24	7	35	3:49	Missed field goal
6	CAR	CAR 34	4	1	1:04	Punt
7	NO	NO 15	11	62	5:53	Turnover on downs
8	CAR	CAR 24	14	42	6:51	Interception
9	NO	NO 43	3	33	0:24	Fumble
10	CAR	CAR 49	1	-8	0:03	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 18	16	81	8:15	Turnover on downs +7
12	NO	NO 25	5	7	1:41	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 20	4	8	2:24	Punt
14	NO	NO 27	10	21	5:47	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 20	7	24	3:37	Punt
16	NO	NO 15	4	7	1:26	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 41	4	-1	2:01	Punt
18	NO	NO 10	7	39	3:02	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 13	1	0	0:11	Interception
20	NO	CAR 35	4	-2	0:16	Missed field goal
21	CAR	CAR 45	6	31	1:20	Field goal +3

3 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	5/15	43	0	2	2	-12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	21	69	3.3	-2.8
D'Onta Foreman	12	68	5.7	1.6
Sam Darnold	6	32	5.3	3.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	1.0	-0.8
Raheem Blackshear	1	1	1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terrace Marshall	2	3	23	27%	-1.1
D.J. Moore	1	4	10	36%	-7.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	8	9%	0.8
Tommy Tremble	1	1	2	9%	0.5
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	9%	-0.4
Shi Smith	0	1	0	9%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Norman	6	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	5	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	3	4	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	3	0.0	1
Myles Hartsfield	3	1	0.0	0
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0	0
Bravvion Roy	1	3	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	2	2	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	2	1	0.0	1
Amare Barno	2	1	1.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	15/25	171	1	0	1	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	23	107	4.7	-3.1
Taysom Hill	5	24	4.8	0.9
Rashid Shaheed	1	7	7.0	0.3
Eno Benjamin	2	3	1.5	-0.9
Andy Dalton	1	2	2.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	5	12	60	1	48%	-6.6
Rashid Shaheed	3	4	34	0	16%	0.1
David Johnson	2	2	28	0	8%	2.0
Juwan Johnson	1	1	21	0	4%	1.3
Adam Trautman	1	1	18	0	4%	1.0
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	6	0	4%	0.1
Alvin Kamara	1	2	3	0	8%	-1.9
Taysom Hill	1	1	1	0	4%	-1.5
Marquez Callaway	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrann Mathieu	4	4	0.0	1	1
Marshon Lattimore	4	4	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	2	5	0.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	3	2	0.0	0	1
Cameron Jordan	2	3	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	3	1	0.0	1	1
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	3	0	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
CAR moneyline: +160
NO moneyline: -179

Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 17 — under by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.