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Carolina Panthers 10 at New Orleans Saints 7. Final.
Saints -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Carolina Panthers 10, Saints 7 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:24, 4th and 12, on Wil Lutz — 36.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:24 · 4th and 12
Wil Lutz
Panthers
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
U 41.5 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:24, Panthers +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel SorensenSaintsQ4 1:47(1:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen at CAR 49. 25-D.Sorensen pushed ob at CAR 35 for 14 yards (12-S.Smith).
32.4pts
Eddy PineiroPanthersQ4 0:03(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
20.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Panthers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Saints at 4 of 13 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.31 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers142 of 152 plays carry both curves
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Swing −36.0 for SaintsExpected points −3.30 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:24CAR +36% win prob(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
4th · 1:47CAR +32% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen at CAR 49. 25-D.Sorensen pushed ob at CAR 35 for 14 yards (12-S.Smith).
4th · 0:03NO +20% win prob(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
4th · 0:19NO +14% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-T.Marshall to NO 24 for 21 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 32-T.Mathieu). Pass 12, YAC 9
2nd · 0:40CAR +12% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at NO 2. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 43 for 41 yards (88-T.Marshall). CAR-63-A.Corbett was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 2:00CAR +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 89-R.Shaheed.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 42-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:08Chris Olave·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–7
4th0:03Eddy Pineiro·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+310–7
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Panthers1–7Saints
203Total yards304
3.5Yards per play5.2
41%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays6
13First downs15
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Panthers: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.18Saints: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.56Panthers: −0.56 expected points added per play
−0.31Saints: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.08Saints: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 58 snaps at a 34% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Saints 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, −30.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 12.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −23.5 pts in week 10.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 17.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -30.3 pts, 21.9 points below their season mean of -8.4 pts and 2.1 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%59 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%59 snaps
56Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%59 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
88Terrace MarshallWR · Full-time93%55 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time92%54 snaps
73Michael JordanG · Full-time90%53 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation69%41 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
64Cade MaysG · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
12Shi SmithWR · Heavy rotation51%30 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational49%29 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Rotational44%26 snaps
15Laviska ShenaultWR · Rotational29%17 snaps
33D'Onta ForemanRB · Rotational25%15 snaps
84Stephen SullivanTE · Situational15%9 snaps
70Brady ChristensenT · Situational10%6 snaps
45Giovanni RicciTE · Situational5%3 snaps
20Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational5%3 snaps
16Preston WilliamsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
75Cameron ErvingT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sam TecklenburgCBrian BurnsDEMatt IoannidisDTChandler WootenLBJuston BurrisSSLarnel ColemanTRashard HigginsWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Wil Lutz−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q4 1:24 · Saints · 4th & 12 at CAR 37 · gained nothing · -3.30 EP · −29.5% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 82 yards from the CAR 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
39%
Yards
507
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4139%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2552%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0861%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.130%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers0Saints6
Panthers0Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 25
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 45
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Panthers 30
2nd quarter40 plays
No good3 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Panthers 35
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Panthers 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted16 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Saints 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Panthers 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Panthers6Saints7
Panthers7Saints7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Saints 3
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 32
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 41
4th quarter46 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Panthers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Saints 22
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
No good5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers10Saints7
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Saints 24
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3.5
Closing total
41.5
Panthers moneyline
+160
Saints moneyline
-179
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 17 — under by 24.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Dennis Allen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:56NO +11% win prob(:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end to NO 45 for 13 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
3rd · 6:52NO +11% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left tackle to NO 1 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), recovered by CAR-73-M.Jordan at NO -3. TOUCHDOWN.
