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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q4 1:24, 4th and 12, on Wil Lutz — 36.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:24, Panthers +36.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:24 · 4th and 12
Wil Lutz
Panthers
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Panthers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Saints at 4 of 13 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.31 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Eddy Pineiro's 42-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Eddy Pineiro42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+310–73 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 58 snaps at a 34% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Saints 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's pass rate over expected, −30.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 12.2 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-30.3 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −21.9 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−2.06× that swing) · 58 snaps
Saints-18.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.2 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Panthers31.8%leaned — ran early · −17.8 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 44 early downs
Saints40.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Panthers15.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.9 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Saints15.4%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Panthers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −24.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Saints20.0%right on their number · +5.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 58%
Tendencies room →Panthers38.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints30.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers11.5%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints10.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
CAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -30.3 pts, 21.9 points below their season mean of -8.4 pts and 2.1 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
15/25, 171 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-5.0 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
5/15, 43 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.9 expected points added · -21.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
David Johnson banked 1.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −2.7 | 60% | 85% | 48% | 66% | 5/12, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.0 | −2.0 | 75% | 54% | 8% | 0% | 23 car, 107 yd · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | +1.8 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 171 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −0.3 | 83% | 96% | 16% | 17% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/4, 34 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −5.3 | 69% | 85% | 9% | 1% | 21 car, 69 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 6.8 | +1.6 | 25% | 10% | 0% | — | 12 car, 68 yd |
| David JohnsonRB | 4.8 | +1.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.3 | −0.1 | 93% | 95% | 27% | 14% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 3.5 | −1.5 | 30% | — | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.2 | 68% | 73% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.2 | 53% | 38% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 2.0 | −5.8 | 92% | 95% | 36% | 84% | 1/4, 10 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | 0.0 | 29% | 20% | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 49% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 0.9 | −10.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 5/15, 43 yd, 2 INT · 6 car, 32 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 0.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.1 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 51% | 80% | 9% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Andre RobertsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 13% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q4 1:24 · Saints · 4th & 12 at CAR 37 · gained nothing · -3.30 EP · −29.5% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 82 yards from the CAR 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Saints6Panthers0Saints7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers6Saints7Panthers7Saints7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers10Saints7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 5/15 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.8 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Sam Darnold |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 27% | −1.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 36% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norman | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/25 | 171 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_CAR_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 17 — under by 24.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 32 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +3.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| −7.2 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bravvion Roy | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amare Barno | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 12 | 60 | 1 | 48% | −6.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16% | +0.1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 8% | +2.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrann Mathieu | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sorensen | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
