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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Cleveland Browns

14

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

28

PIT -2.5 ✓O 40 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–14. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, PIT +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑CLE ↓
Q2 · 1:52CLE 7 — PIT 6PIT ball · 3rd & 15CLE 61%

(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:52PIT +16% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 6:19CLE +11% win prob(6:19) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CLE 1 for no gain (54-D.Jones, 93-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (54-D.Jones), RECOVERED by CLE-94-A.Wright at CLE 5.
  3. Q1 · 8:29PIT +11% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to CLE 2 for 32 yards (37-D.Bell).
  4. Q2 · 6:33PIT +9% win prob(6:33) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 6:33CLE Touchdown

    (6:33) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — PIT 0
  2. Q2 · 1:52PIT Touchdown

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 0:43PIT Field goal

    (:43) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — PIT 10
  4. Q3 · 9:07PIT Field goal

    (9:07) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — PIT 13
  5. Q3 · 3:17PIT Touchdown

    (3:17) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — PIT 20
  6. Q4 · 10:20CLE Touchdown

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 14 — PIT 20
  7. Q4 · 4:39PIT Touchdown

    (4:39) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 44-D.Watt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CLE 14 — PIT 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsSteelers
Offensive plays5768
Total yards307335 (edge)
Yards per play5.4 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play-0.010.08 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)40%
Dropback rate70%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.13
Third downs5/129/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1621 (edge)
Sacks taken71 (edge)
Turnovers22

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

19/29, 230 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-3.8 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

13/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

23 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-7.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

12 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

3/6 for 72 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

2/3 for 51 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 246302:32Punt
2PITPIT 3311576:14Fumble
3CLECLE 55283:14Punt
4PITPIT 296182:16Fumble
5CLECLE 65382:15Punt
6PITPIT 20442:05Punt
7CLECLE 2911664:57Touchdown +7
8PITPIT 2511694:40Touchdown +7
9CLECLE 32340:36Interception
10PITPIT 446250:33Field goal +3
11CLECLE 256240:38End of half
12PITPIT 2513595:56Field goal +3
13CLECLE 207133:22Interception
14PITCLE 257252:30Touchdown +7
15CLECLE 255-62:15Punt
16PITPIT 32421:08Punt
17CLECLE 238724:38Touchdown +7
18PITPIT 2516765:34Touchdown +8
19CLECLE 1514384:37Turnover on downs

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Deshaun Watson19/29230227-3.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb12776.401.9
Deshaun Watson6447.302.1
Kareem Hunt4133.30-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amari Cooper2351011%2.8
Nick Chubb5645122%3.0
Donovan Peoples-Jones2442015%1.7
David Njoku4542119%4.5
Harrison Bryant222007%1.7
Kareem Hunt3415015%-1.5
Mike Woods111504%0.2
David Bell02007%-6.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tony Fields340.000
John Johnson150.000
Myles Garrett241.000
Chase Winovich320.000
Jermaine Carter220.000
Jordan Elliott130.002
Martin Emerson310.002
D'Anthony Bell310.000
Deion Jones300.000
Perrion Winfrey120.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett13/2919510110.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris23803.51-7.1
Jaylen Warren6366.000.8
Steven Sims11616.001.4
Connor Heyward166.000.8
Gunner Olszewski242.000.2
Kenny Pickett310.30-1.7
Derek Watt111.010.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens3672121%6.8
Connor Heyward3445014%5.1
Diontae Johnson21038036%-0.0
Zach Gentry112304%1.2
Najee Harris111004%0.7
Jaylen Warren347014%-0.2
Pat Freiermuth02007%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Minkah Fitzpatrick550.000
Cameron Heyward352.001
Alex Highsmith622.500
Robert Spillane330.000
Terrell Edmunds321.001
Myles Jack220.000
Cameron Sutton120.001
Larry Ogunjobi121.000
James Pierre120.001
T.J. Watt110.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Closing total
40
CLE moneyline
+128
PIT moneyline
-142

Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 40; the game landed 42 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
CLE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.