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Cleveland Browns 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 28. Final.
Steelers -2.5 ✓O 40 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Browns 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:52, 3rd and 15, on George Pickens — 16.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:52 · 3rd and 15
George Pickens
Steelers
(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28–14. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, Steelers +16.3% win probability on one snap.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Diontae JohnsonSteelersQ1 8:29(8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to CLE 2 for 32 yards (37-D.Bell).
10.6pts
Najee HarrisBrownsQ1 6:19(6:19) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CLE 1 for no gain (54-D.Jones, 93-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (54-D.Jones), RECOVERED by CLE-94-A.Wright at CLE 5.
11.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Browns at 5 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.3 for SteelersExpected points +5.00 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:52PIT +16% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:19CLE +11% win prob(6:19) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CLE 1 for no gain (54-D.Jones, 93-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (54-D.Jones), RECOVERED by CLE-94-A.Wright at CLE 5.
1st · 8:29PIT +11% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to CLE 2 for 32 yards (37-D.Bell).
2nd · 6:33PIT +9% win prob(6:33) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:23CLE +8% win prob(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Wallace at PIT 41. 29-L.Wallace to PIT 44 for 3 yards (2-A.Cooper).
3rd · 5:48CLE +8% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee at CLE 37. 23-D.Kazee to CLE 25 for 12 yards (4-D.Watson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 49-yard field goal with 0:43 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Browns: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Browns: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.31Steelers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 57 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Steelers’s 68 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Steelers20.0%
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 1.4 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
66James HudsonT · Every snap100%64 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Full-time98%63 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Full-time95%61 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Full-time92%59 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time92%59 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
12Mike WoodsWR · Rotational41%26 snaps
18David BellWR · Rotational36%23 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational31%20 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
84Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational9%6 snaps
74Christopher HubbardT · Situational9%6 snaps
16Jaelon DardenWR · Situational2%1 snap
72Hjalte FroholdtG · Situational2%1 snap
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Thomas GrahamCBIsaiah ThomasDEJadeveon ClowneyDEBen StilleDTKellen MondQBDemetric FeltonRBJack ConklinT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett pass+17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:52 · Steelers · 3rd & 15 at CLE 31 · gained 31 · +5.00 EP · +17.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 77 yards from the CLE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1563%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2539%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.1770%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5067%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Browns 1
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 25
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Browns 48
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Browns 44
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 47
Punt5 plays
Browns6Steelers0
Browns7Steelers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Steelers 10
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Browns7Steelers6
Browns7Steelers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 26
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 36
Browns7Steelers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Browns 31
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 47
3rd quarter35 plays
Browns7Steelers13
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 10
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 44
Browns7Steelers19
Browns7Steelers20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 4
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 32
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Browns13Steelers20
Browns14Steelers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Steelers 2
Browns14Steelers26
Browns14Steelers28
Touchdown20 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 1
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Steelers 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
