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Dallas Cowboys 6 at Washington Commanders 26. Final.
Cowboys -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Washington Commanders 26, Cowboys 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:43, 3rd and 6, on Kendall Fuller — 15.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:43 · 3rd and 6
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 40.5 ✓
Cowboys closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 26–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:43, Commanders +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ1 8:51(8:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at DAL 15. 34-C.Holmes to DAL 15 for no gain (9-K.Turpin).
13.7pts
Joey SlyeCowboysQ1 6:39(6:39) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
11.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 0 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.62 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.19 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.48 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys170 of 177 plays carry both curves
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.3 for CommandersExpected points +6.66 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 26 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:43DAL +15% win prob(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:51WAS +14% win prob(8:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at DAL 15. 34-C.Holmes to DAL 15 for no gain (9-K.Turpin).
1st · 6:39DAL +11% win prob(6:39) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
2nd · 13:34DAL +10% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 89-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL -8. Touchback.
1st · 11:14WAS +10% win prob(11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:41WAS +7% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 1-J.Dotson to DAL 21 for 20 yards (27-J.Kearse). DAL-27-J.Kearse was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terry McLaurin's 16-yard touchdown catch with 11:14 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:14Terry McLaurin·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam HowellLead never changed again+70–7
2nd12:43Kendall Fuller·29-yd defence TD29-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide right+60–13
2nd0:10CeeDee Lamb·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · kick no good, wide left+66–13
4th14:23Joey Slye·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+36–23
4th5:22Joey Slye·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+36–26
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Cowboys2–6Commanders
182Total yards310
2.8Yards per play5.0
27%Success rate34%
22%Third-down rate21%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
0Explosive plays7
10First downs13
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.48Cowboys: −0.48 expected points added per play
−0.19Commanders: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Cowboys: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.62Cowboys: −0.62 expected points added per play
−0.23Commanders: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Commanders’s 62 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Commanders 6.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 29.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.4 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.8 pts in week 17 against −13.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 17.6 points below their season mean of 24.7% and 1.5 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:43 · Cowboys · 3rd & 6 at DAL 24 · gained nothing · -6.66 EP · −10.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 77 yards from the DAL 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.29
Success rate
31%
Yards
491
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.4469%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0741%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.3441%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3918%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.359%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends, one receiver, one punter, two linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and four backs
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 33
Cowboys0Commanders6
Cowboys0Commanders7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 16
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 28
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 44
No good4 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 10
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 27
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Cowboys 9
2nd quarter52 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 2
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cowboys0Commanders13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 24
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
No good8 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Cowboys 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 45
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 38
Cowboys6Commanders13
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Commanders 15
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Commanders 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 26
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Cowboys 47
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 21
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 37
Punt4 plays
Cowboys6Commanders19
Cowboys6Commanders20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Cowboys 9
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Cowboys6Commanders23
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 11
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Cowboys 48
Punt4 plays
Cowboys6Commanders26
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -7.5
Closing total
40.5
Cowboys moneyline
-320
Commanders moneyline
+274
Cowboys closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Cowboys 10 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 3:14WAS +7% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin (37-T.Mullen). PENALTY on DAL-37-T.Mullen, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at WAS 38 - No Play.
1st · 11:50DAL +7% win prob(11:50) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 19, and recovers at DAL 19. 5-B.Anger to DAL 20 for 1 yard (46-M.Eifler).
