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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q2 12:43, 3rd and 6, on Kendall Fuller — 15.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 26–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:43, Commanders +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:43 · 3rd and 6
Kendall Fuller
Commanders
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 0 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.62 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.19 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.48 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Terry McLaurin's 16-yard touchdown catch with 11:14 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Terry McLaurin16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam HowellLead never changed again+70–7Kendall Fuller29-yd defense TD29-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide right+60–13
CeeDee Lamb15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · kick no good, wide left+66–136 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Commanders’s 62 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Commanders 6.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 29.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.8 pts in week 17 against −13.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-13.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 66 snaps
Commanders-12.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Cowboys60.0%leaned — passed early · +10.8 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 45 early downs
Commanders29.2%leaned — ran early · −19.9 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Cowboys7.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.6 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Commanders16.0%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys50.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.7 vs their 29.3%, and they swing ±27.5 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.3 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 50%
Tendencies room →Cowboys16.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders19.0%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Cowboys12.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders9.5%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
DAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 17.6 points below their season mean of 24.7% and 1.5 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
11/19, 169 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
14/37, 128 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-13.2 expected points added · -24.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Sam Howell banked 6.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | +6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/19, 169 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | +5.2 | 76% | 88% | 33% | 50% | 3/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 16.2 | +5.3 | 87% | 95% | 19% | 19% | 5/7, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | +3.8 | 74% | 88% | 22% | 38% | 3/4, 72 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −7.7 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 14/37, 128 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 16 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −3.4 | 50% | 40% | 6% | 3% | 17 car, 78 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.3 | −6.4 | 87% | 90% | 25% | 22% | 4/9, 33 yd |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.1 | −6.6 | 47% | 60% | 11% | 2% | 14 car, 32 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.5 | 39% | 38% | 11% | 17% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.1 | 70% | 80% | 17% | 6% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −6.6 | 90% | 88% | 17% | 16% | 1/6, 10 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −8.3 | 66% | 74% | 17% | 22% | 1/6, 10 yd |
| Tony PollardRB | 1.9 | −3.1 | 43% | 48% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 19 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 1.9 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 1.0 | −5.7 | 48% | 50% | 6% | 1% | 8 car, 10 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Reggie BonnafonRB | 0.8 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −1.7 | 53% | 68% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Armani RogersTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.6 | 17% | 4% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kavontae TurpinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 18% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:43 · Cowboys · 3rd & 6 at DAL 24 · gained nothing · -6.66 EP · −10.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 77 yards from the DAL 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Cowboys0
Commanders6Cowboys0Commanders7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cowboys0Commanders13Cowboys6Commanders13Cowboys6Commanders19Cowboys6Commanders20Cowboys6Commanders23Cowboys6Commanders26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/37 | 128 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −13.2 |
| Cooper Rush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Malik Davis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 19% | +4.7 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Golston | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Coyle | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 11/19 | 169 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_DAL_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Bryan Anger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.9 |
| −0.2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 17% | −4.4 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 17% | −8.0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.9 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Barr | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayvon Mullen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Sam Howell | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Jonathan Williams | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 33% | +3.1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 22% | +3.8 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 17% | −1.3 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −6.0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaleke Hudson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Mayo | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Ridgeway | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benning Potoa'e | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
