2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · FedExField

Dallas Cowboys

Washington CommandersWinner

DAL -7.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓Cowboys closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 26–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:43, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:43DAL 0 — WAS 13DAL ball · 3rd & 6WAS 51%

(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:43DAL +15% win prob(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:51WAS +14% win prob(8:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at DAL 15. 34-C.Holmes to DAL 15 for no gain (9-K.Turpin).
Q1 · 6:39DAL +11% win prob(6:39) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q2 · 13:34DAL +10% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 89-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL -8. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:14WAS Touchdown
(11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 0 — WAS 7
Q2 · 12:43WAS Touchdown
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at DAL 29. 29-K.Fuller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 0 — WAS 13
Q2 · 0:10DAL Touchdown
(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 6 — WAS 13
Q3 · 1:54WAS Touchdown
(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 6 — WAS 20
Q4 · 14:23WAS Field goal
(14:23) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: DAL 6 — WAS 23
Q4 · 5:22WAS Field goal
(5:22) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: DAL 6 — WAS 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Commanders
Offensive plays	66	62
Total yards	182	310 (edge)
Yards per play	2.8	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.48	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	27%	34% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.62	-0.23 (edge)
Third downs	4/18 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	13 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.48.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

11/19, 169 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

14/37, 128 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-13.2 expected points added · -24.0% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jaret PattersonRB

17 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

5 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

3/6 for 74 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jahan DotsonWR

3/4 for 72 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 10	8	23	3:15	Turnover on downs
2	WAS	DAL 20	3	20	0:37	Touchdown +7
3	DAL	DAL 25	5	-7	1:31	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 38	4	6	0:55	Punt
5	WAS	DAL 15	4	2	2:07	Missed field goal
6	DAL	DAL 21	4	6	1:50	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 33	11	33	6:18	Interception
8	DAL	DAL 20	3	4	0:49	Defensive touchdown
9	DAL	DAL 25	5	5	1:21	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 18	8	48	3:45	Missed field goal
11	DAL	DAL 42	4	3	0:47	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 17	7	21	4:08	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 23	15	77	2:31	Touchdown +6
14	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
15	WAS	WAS 29	5	7	2:11	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 23	4	13	1:42	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 49	4	4	1:27	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 20	4	1	0:57	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 34	4	8	2:13	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 14	4	-2	0:56	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 41	7	64	3:45	Touchdown +7
22	DAL	DAL 28	5	0	1:05	Punt
23	WAS	WAS 33	5	56	1:25	Field goal +3
24	DAL	DAL 25	10	40	3:36	Turnover on downs
25	WAS	WAS 45	4	7	1:31	Punt
26	DAL	DAL 9	4	0	0:23	Punt
27	WAS	DAL 45	6	26	3:30	Field goal +3
28	DAL	DAL 25	5	6	1:12	Punt
29	WAS	WAS 13	4	8	2:14	Punt
30	DAL	DAL 29	3	13	1:53	End of game

5 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	14/37	128	1	1	1	-13.2
Cooper Rush	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tony Pollard	7	19	2.7	-3.5
Malik Davis	5	19	3.8	-1.2
Dak Prescott	6	16	2.7	-4.8
Ezekiel Elliott	8	10	1.3	-3.8
Bryan Anger	1	0	0.0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	5	7	52	1	19%	4.7
Dalton Schultz	4	9	33	0	25%	-0.2
T.Y. Hilton	2	4	19	0	11%	-0.4
Michael Gallup	1	6	10	0	17%	-4.4
Noah Brown	1	6	10	0	17%	-8.0
Jake Ferguson	1	1	4	0	3%	0.0
Tony Pollard	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Ezekiel Elliott	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Chauncey Golston	4	6	0.0
Tyler Coyle	4	2	0.0
Dorance Armstrong	2	3	0.5
Osa Odighizuwa	4	1	1.0
Anthony Barr	2	3	0.0
Noah Brown	1	2	0.0
Donovan Wilson	1	2	0.0
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	0.0
Damone Clark	2	1	0.0
Jayron Kearse	3	0	0.0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	11/19	169	1	1	3	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaret Patterson	17	78	4.6	0	-1.1
Sam Howell	5	35	7.0	1	5.5
Jonathan Williams	14	32	2.3	0	-6.3
Reggie Bonnafon	3	8	2.7	0	-1.1
Armani Rogers	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Curtis Samuel	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	3	6	74	1	33%	3.1
Jahan Dotson	3	4	72	0	22%	3.8
Logan Thomas	2	3	16	0	17%	-1.3
Jonathan Williams	2	2	9	0	11%	-1.0
Jaret Patterson	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.8
Cam Sims	0	1	0	0	6%	-6.0
Curtis Samuel	1	1	-2	0	6%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Khaleke Hudson	3	4	0
Darrick Forrest	4	3	1
David Mayo	2	5	0
John Ridgeway	2	3	0
Danny Johnson	1	4	2
Jeremy Reaves	1	2	0
Montez Sweat	1	2	0
Benning Potoa'e	2	1	0
Casey Toohill	3	0	0
Percy Butler	3	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -7.5
Closing total: 40.5
DAL moneyline: -320
WAS moneyline: +274

Cowboys closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: DAL 10 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.