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Detroit Lions 20, Packers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:53, 1st and 10, on Kalif Raymond — 15.9 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:53 · 1st and 10
Kalif Raymond
Lions
(8:53) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to GB 1 for 43 yards (20-R.Ford).
23°F
Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 20–16. Biggest swing: Q3 8:53, Lions +15.9% win probability on one snap.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian WatsonPackersQ3 4:34(4:34) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to DET 14 for 45 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
10.8pts
Allen LazardPackersQ3 3:22(3:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions152 of 165 plays carry both curves
(8:53) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to GB 1 for 43 yards (20-R.Ford).
Swing −15.9 for PackersExpected points −3.50 for PackersThe model had Lions 11 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:53GB +16% win prob(8:53) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to GB 1 for 43 yards (20-R.Ford).
3rd · 3:22GB +12% win prob(3:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:34GB +11% win prob(4:34) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to DET 14 for 45 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 8:35DET +11% win prob(8:35) (No Huddle) 13-A.Lazard left end to GB 31 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
4th · 9:18GB +10% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 4-D.Chark to GB 22 for 3 yards (23-J.Alexander).
4th · 5:57GB +10% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jamaal Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:57 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:25Mason Crosby·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+30–3
1st7:04Michael Badgley·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–3
1st1:59Mason Crosby·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+33–6
2nd13:01Mason Crosby·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+33–9
2nd0:02Michael Badgley·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–9
4th5:57Jamaal Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+720–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions8–0Packers
324Total yards291
5.5Yards per play5.1
54%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
19First downs16
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.15Packers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.21Packers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 59 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Packers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Packers 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 48.4% in week 17 against 22.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Packers8.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 36.1%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.1 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%62 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%62 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%62 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time85%53 snaps
4D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation65%40 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational40%25 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Rotational39%24 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational37%23 snaps
84Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Situational24%15 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Situational19%12 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational18%11 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Situational18%11 snaps
42Justin JacksonRB · Situational10%6 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCJeff OkudahCBMichael BrockersDEAustin BryantOLBJermar JeffersonRBCraig ReynoldsRBKayode AwosikaT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:34) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to DET 14 for 45 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q3 4:34 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 41 · gained 45 · +2.79 EP · +16.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 83 yards from the GB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.5955%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0761%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.4548%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4863%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Lions0Packers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Lions 4
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 32
Lions3Packers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Lions3Packers6
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Lions 20
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Lions 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Lions3Packers9
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 24
No good14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 27
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Lions 32
Lions6Packers9
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Packers 15
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 34
No good8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 34
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Lions12Packers9
Lions13Packers9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Lions13Packers15
Lions13Packers16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Lions 13
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 32
4th quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Packers 38
Lions19Packers16
Lions20Packers16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 33
The period ended15 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -5.5
Closing total
49
Lions moneyline
+237
Packers moneyline
-273
Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 36 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 23°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Lions 7 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DET +10% win prob
(1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to DET 24 for 8 yards (79-J.Cominsky). FUMBLES (79-J.Cominsky), RECOVERED by DET-25-W.Harris at DET 15.
1st · 12:58GB +9% win prob(12:58) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 13-A.Lazard. PENALTY on DET-39-J.Jacobs, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at GB 49 - No Play.
