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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Detroit LionsWinner

20

Green Bay Packers

16

GB -5.5 upsetU 49 ✓21°F

Detroit Lions 20–16. Biggest swing: Q3 8:53, GB +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑DET ↓
Q3 · 8:53DET 6 — GB 9DET ball · 1st & 10GB 65%

(8:53) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to GB 1 for 43 yards (20-R.Ford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 8:53GB +16% win prob(8:53) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to GB 1 for 43 yards (20-R.Ford).
  2. Q3 · 3:22GB +12% win prob(3:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 4:34GB +11% win prob(4:34) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to DET 14 for 45 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  4. Q1 · 8:35DET +11% win prob(8:35) (No Huddle) 13-A.Lazard left end to GB 31 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:25GB Field goal

    (11:25) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: DET 0 — GB 3
  2. Q1 · 7:04DET Field goal

    (7:04) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — GB 3
  3. Q1 · 1:59GB Field goal

    (1:59) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — GB 6
  4. Q2 · 13:01GB Field goal

    (13:01) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — GB 9
  5. Q2 · 0:02DET Field goal

    (:02) 17-M.Badgley 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 6 — GB 9
  6. Q3 · 8:07DET Touchdown

    (8:07) 67-M.Nelson and 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13 — GB 9
  7. Q3 · 3:22GB Touchdown

    (3:22) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13 — GB 16
  8. Q4 · 5:57DET Touchdown

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 20 — GB 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsPackers
Offensive plays5957
Total yards324 (edge)291
Yards per play5.5 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.15 (edge)-0.15
Success rate54% (edge)46%
Dropback rate61%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.08
Third downs4/124/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/34, 224 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

17/27, 205 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

16 att, 72 yds, 2 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

5/6 for 104 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kalif RaymondWR

4/6 for 66 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 218293:39Field goal +3
2DETDET 25540:54Punt
3GBGB 23481:55Turnover on downs
4DETGB 315121:32Field goal +3
5GBGB 339365:06Field goal +3
6DETDET 24571:37Punt
7GBGB 457252:21Field goal +3
8DETDET 2513576:43Missed field goal
9GBGB 367404:57Fumble
10DETDET 1510551:16Field goal +3
11DETDET 26581:47Punt
12GBGB 258413:41Missed field goal
13DETDET 434571:27Touchdown +7
14GBGB 1711834:48Touchdown +7
15DETDET 32550:59Punt
16GBGB 266173:20Punt
17DETDET 2514708:03Touchdown +7
18GBGB 217122:28Interception
19DETGB 458493:27End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/342240017.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams16724.522.6
D'Andre Swift6254.20-0.5
Jared Goff252.50-4.6
Justin Jackson122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kalif Raymond4666018%2.8
D'Andre Swift7761021%1.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown6949027%2.1
Josh Reynolds121606%0.3
D.J. Chark3414012%2.7
Justin Jackson111103%2.0
James Mitchell11703%0.7
Shane Zylstra01003%-1.4
Brock Wright01003%-0.3
Jameson Williams01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah Buggs340.000
Mike Hughes520.000
Alex Anzalone150.000
Jerry Jacobs500.000
Kerby Joseph500.012
DeShon Elliott320.000
John Cominsky220.000
Benito Jones130.000
Malcolm Rodriguez130.000
Amani Oruwariye210.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers17/27205112-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones12484.00-1.4
A.J. Dillon9333.702.2
Christian Watson2126.000.6
Aaron Rodgers3103.30-0.8
Allen Lazard200.00-4.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson56104023%3.9
Allen Lazard4641123%3.9
Robert Tonyan3329012%1.1
Aaron Jones3420015%-3.8
Randall Cobb221108%0.6
A.J. Dillon030012%-2.9
Romeo Doubs02008%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Darnell Savage740.002
De'Vondre Campbell430.000
Quay Walker500.000
Adrian Amos410.000
Rasul Douglas310.000
Rudy Ford210.000
Jaire Alexander210.000
Tedarrell Slaton210.000
Jarran Reed110.000
Krys Barnes200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -5.5
Closing total
49
DET moneyline
+237
GB moneyline
-273

Packers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 36 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
21°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
DET 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.