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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

32

Indianapolis Colts

31

IND -3 upsetO 38 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 32–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, HOU +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 0:02HOU 32 — IND 31IND ball · 2nd & 10HOU 74%

(:02) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep middle (1-T.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02HOU +26% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep middle (1-T.Smith).
  2. Q2 · 10:41HOU +24% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle intended for 35-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Greenard [92-R.Green] at IND 39. 52-J.Greenard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:50IND +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Mills pass to 88-J.Akins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  4. Q4 · 0:13HOU +21% win prob(:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 1-P.Campbell pushed ob at IND 46 for 1 yard (25-D.King). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 1-P.Campbell to IND 46 for 1 yard (25-D.King).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:22HOU Touchdown

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — IND 0
  2. Q1 · 9:44HOU Field goal

    (9:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — IND 0
  3. Q1 · 3:59IND Touchdown

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — IND 7
  4. Q2 · 10:41HOU Touchdown

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle intended for 35-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Greenard [92-R.Green] at IND 39. 52-J.Greenard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — IND 7
  5. Q3 · 6:48IND Touchdown

    (6:48) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 21-Z.Moss left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — IND 14
  6. Q3 · 3:57HOU Touchdown

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 88-J.Akins for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — IND 14
  7. Q3 · 1:00IND Touchdown

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod at HOU 27. 26-R.McLeod for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — IND 21
  8. Q4 · 10:34IND Touchdown

    (10:34) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — IND 28
  9. Q4 · 3:37IND Field goal

    (3:37) 7-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — IND 31
  10. Q4 · 0:58HOU Touchdown

    (:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: HOU 32 — IND 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansColts
Offensive plays6570
Total yards362398 (edge)
Yards per play5.65.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.07 (edge)-0.08
Success rate35%41% (edge)
Dropback rate66%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.530.09 (edge)
Third downs5/14 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1922 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers33

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

22/38, 298 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

7.3 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Sam EhlingerQB

23/35, 209 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-13.0 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

18 att, 114 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Deon JacksonRB

8 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

5/6 for 106 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Teagan QuitorianoTE

3/4 for 83 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 259753:43Touchdown +7
2IND—100:06Fumble
3HOUIND 184-11:31Field goal +3
4INDIND 2513695:44Touchdown +7
5HOUHOU 258303:04Punt
6INDIND 94-21:50Punt
7HOUIND 466323:21Fumble
8INDIND 42100:11Defensive touchdown
9INDIND 2211655:44Interception
10HOUHOU 209373:14Punt
11INDIND 77331:32End of half
12INDIND 178823:09Turnover on downs
13HOUHOU 37122:23Punt
14INDHOU 496292:48Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 257752:49Touchdown +7
16INDIND 16582:05Punt
17HOUHOU 19320:54Defensive touchdown
18HOUHOU 25420:52Interception
19INDIND 428534:30Touchdown +7
20HOUHOU 25581:33Punt
21INDIND 2410405:24Field goal +3
22HOUHOU 1716902:43Touchdown +8
23INDIND 258210:50End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills22/382983217.3
Jeff Driskel2/2130000.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dare Ogunbowale11333.00-0.9
Royce Freeman7152.10-8.8
Jeff Driskel372.30-1.1
Davis Mills166.00-0.3
Chris Moore1-2-2.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandin Cooks56106116%11.5
Teagan Quitoriano3483011%5.5
Jordan Akins4870221%3.0
Amari Rodgers3422011%-0.8
Chris Moore2622016%-3.2
Dare Ogunbowale565016%-1.9
Royce Freeman11203%-0.5
Rex Burkhead12105%-2.7
Troy Hairston01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Harris631.001
Jonathan Owens440.000
Tavierre Thomas620.000
Jalen Pitre510.000
M.J. Stewart410.000
Desmond King320.000
Christian Kirksey400.011
Blake Cashman210.000
Roy Lopez120.000
Jake Hansen120.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Ehlinger23/35209222-13.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss181146.313.5
Deon Jackson8354.40-1.1
Parris Campbell12626.001.7
Sam Ehlinger5214.203.5
Michael Pittman100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deon Jackson6875024%-3.0
Parris Campbell6942026%-7.2
Alec Pierce3442012%2.4
Michael Pittman3530115%0.6
Jelani Woods149012%-4.0
Zack Moss33709%-1.6
Mo Alie-Cox11413%2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed440.001
Julian Blackmon620.000
Rodney McLeod440.011
Zaire Franklin321.000
Brandon Facyson400.001
Bobby Okereke220.000
DeForest Buckner400.000
Dayo Odeyingbo210.000
Rodney Thomas200.011
Dallis Flowers110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3
Closing total
38
HOU moneyline
+128
IND moneyline
-142

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 63 — over by 25.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
HOU 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Lovie Smith vs Jeff Saturday

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.