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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TexansHouston32
BY 1final margin
ColtsIndianapolis31
Houston Texans 32 at Indianapolis Colts 31. Final.
Colts -3 upsetO 38 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Houston Texans 32, Colts 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 10, on Sam Ehlinger — 26.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 10
Sam Ehlinger
Texans
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep middle (1-T.Smith).
Dome
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 32–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Texans +26.4% win probability on one snap.
26.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonathan GreenardTexansQ2 10:41(10:41) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle intended for 35-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Greenard [92-R.Green] at IND 39. 52-J.Greenard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.1pts
Jordan AkinsTexansQ4 0:50TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Mills pass to 88-J.Akins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
21.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 7 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep middle (1-T.Smith).
Swing −26.4 for ColtsExpected points −0.24 for ColtsThe model had Colts 12 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
2nd · 10:41HOU +24% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle intended for 35-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Greenard [92-R.Green] at IND 39. 52-J.Greenard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:50IND +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Mills pass to 88-J.Akins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:13HOU +21% win prob(:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 1-P.Campbell pushed ob at IND 46 for 1 yard (25-D.King). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 1-P.Campbell to IND 46 for 1 yard (25-D.King).
4th · 1:26IND +19% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 18 for 30 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:58IND +18% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Akins's 28-yard touchdown catch with 0:58 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:22Brandin Cooks·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+77–0
1st9:44Ka'imi Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+310–0
1st3:59Michael Pittman·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Ehlingerfrom Sam Ehlinger+710–7
4th10:34Mo Alie-Cox·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Ehlingerfrom Sam Ehlinger+724–28
4th3:37Chase McLaughlin·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+324–31
4th0:58Jordan Akins·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · two-point goodLead never changed again+832–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans2–6Colts
362Total yards398
5.6Yards per play5.7
35%Success rate41%
36%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays9
19First downs22
1Sacks taken2
3Turnovers3
The read
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.08Colts: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Texans: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.53Texans: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Colts’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Colts 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 18 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts14.0%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 38.7 points above their season mean of 36.3% and 1.1 times their own 34.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%65 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%65 snaps
59Kenyon GreenG · Every snap100%65 snaps
54Scott QuessenberryC · Every snap100%65 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Full-time91%59 snaps
15Chris MooreWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
84Teagan QuitorianoTE · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
19Amari RodgersWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
26Royce FreemanRB · Situational23%15 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Situational15%10 snaps
34Troy HairstonFB · Situational14%9 snaps
89Johnny JohnsonWR · Situational14%9 snaps
6Jeff DriskelQB · Situational9%6 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jimmy MorrisseyCSteven NelsonCBThomas BookerDTKyle AllenQBO.J. HowardTEPhillip DorsettWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Ehlinger pass−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep middle (1-T.Smith).
Q4 0:02 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at IND 46 · gained nothing · -0.24 EP · −38.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 83 yards from the HOU 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
760
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2759%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0673%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.6264%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.6542%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-1.2638%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Texans6Colts0
Texans7Colts0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 11
Fumble lost1 play
Texans10Colts0
Field goal4 plays
Texans10Colts6
Texans10Colts7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 1
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 10
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Colts 21
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Texans16Colts7
Touchdown1 play
Texans17Colts7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Texans 13
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Colts 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 40
3rd quarter46 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Texans 3
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 3 to the Texans 15
Texans17Colts13
Texans17Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 15
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Texans23Colts14
Texans24Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 18
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Texans24Colts20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 21
Texans24Colts21
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
4th quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Texans24Colts27
Texans24Colts28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Texans 4
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Texans24Colts31
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Texans 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Texans30Colts31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans32Colts31
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Colts 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3
Closing total
38
Texans moneyline
+128
Colts moneyline
-142
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 63 — over by 25.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Texans 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Lovie Smith vs Jeff Saturday
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
3rd · 1:00HOU +17% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod at HOU 27. 26-R.McLeod for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:34IND +13% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
