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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).
Swing −12.9 for RaidersExpected points −5.04 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 32 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:22LV +13% win prob(14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).
1st · 8:03KC +3% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham sacked at KC 35 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones).
1st · 2:51LV +3% win prob(2:51) 3-J.Stidham pass short middle to 10-M.Hollins to LV 18 for 12 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
1st · 9:33LV +3% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at KC 32 for 13 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
1st · 12:58LV +2% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:12KC +2% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at LV 44. 22-J.Thornhill ran ob at LV 44 for no gain.
2nd · 14:02
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jerick McKinnon's 2-yard touchdown catch with 12:58 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:58Jerick McKinnon·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
1st7:20Daniel Carlson·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+37–3
Chiefs ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.16Raiders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.13Raiders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.44Chiefs: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.23Raiders: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Raiders’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Raiders 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
KC's play-action rate, 32.3%, is past their previous high of 30.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.6% in week 17 against 55.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +24.4 pts in week 17 against +8.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Raiders12.9%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteKC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.3%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 17.7% and 1.7 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%59 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Full-time88%52 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Full-time88%52 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Full-time88%52 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time88%52 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).
Q1 14:22 · Chiefs · 2nd & 5 at KC 30 · gained 67 · +5.04 EP · +18.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 98 yards from the KC 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1484%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0055%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4046%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4127%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0440%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.9563%
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR7-0.2043%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chiefs6Raiders0
Chiefs7Raiders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 2
Chiefs7Raiders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 28
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 42
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 18
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 16
2nd quarter46 plays
Chiefs13Raiders3
Chiefs14Raiders3
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Chiefs 2
Chiefs20Raiders3
Chiefs21Raiders3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Raiders 9
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 45
Chiefs24Raiders3
Field goal2 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 26
3rd quarter36 plays
Chiefs24Raiders6
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 19
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 35
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Chiefs 35
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 8
Chiefs30Raiders6
Chiefs31Raiders6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Raiders 1
Chiefs31Raiders12
Chiefs31Raiders13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Raiders 38
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Chiefs 46
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
