For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2022 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 7, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

31

Las Vegas Raiders

13

KC -9 ✓U 51.5 ✓Dome

Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:22, LV +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑KC ↓
Q1 · 14:22KC 0 — LV 0KC ball · 2nd & 5KC 74%

(14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:22LV +13% win prob(14:22) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at LV 3 for 67 yards (21-A.Robertson).
  2. Q1 · 8:03KC +3% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham sacked at KC 35 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones).
  3. Q1 · 2:51LV +3% win prob(2:51) 3-J.Stidham pass short middle to 10-M.Hollins to LV 18 for 12 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
  4. Q1 · 9:33LV +3% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at KC 32 for 13 yards (35-Ja.Watson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:58KC Touchdown

    (12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — LV 0
  2. Q1 · 7:20LV Field goal

    (7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: KC 7 — LV 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00KC Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-R.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — LV 3
  4. Q2 · 0:53KC Touchdown

    (:53) 19-K.Toney left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 21 — LV 3
  5. Q2 · 0:05KC Field goal

    (:05) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 24 — LV 3
  6. Q3 · 7:00LV Field goal

    (7:00) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: KC 24 — LV 6
  7. Q4 · 11:06KC Touchdown

    (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 31 — LV 6
  8. Q4 · 6:43LV Touchdown

    (6:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 31 — LV 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsRaiders
Offensive plays5467
Total yards351 (edge)279
Yards per play6.5 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)-0.16
Success rate56% (edge)39%
Dropback rate57%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.23
Third downs5/9 (edge)8/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)19
Sacks taken2 (edge)6
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Jarrett StidhamQB

22/36, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

18/26, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

8 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Jarrett StidhamQB

7 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

5/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

7/7 for 63 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 257732:08Touchdown +7
2LVLV 2511405:37Field goal +3
3KCKC 2510333:50Punt
4LVLV 5452:21Interception
5KCLV 444441:08Touchdown +7
6LVLV 2415748:50Turnover on downs
7KCKC 213895:19Touchdown +7
8LVLV 25570:38Fumble
9KCLV 30240:09Field goal +3
10LVLV 2514558:05Field goal +3
11KCKC 255-71:46Punt
12LVLV 28471:35Punt
13KCKC 28333:32Punt
14LVLV 4440:58Punt
15KCKC 388623:01Touchdown +7
16LVLV 2512754:26Touchdown +7
17KCLV 435-60:30Punt
18LVLV 188121:43Turnover on downs
19KCLV 347264:24End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes18/262021021.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco8648.013.9
Ronald Jones10454.512.3
Patrick Mahomes3299.703.0
Kadarius Toney3268.713.8
Jerick McKinnon263.000.1
Chad Henne2-2-1.00-5.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Watson126708%4.4
Travis Kelce6738029%-0.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster223508%2.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling3627025%-0.5
Kadarius Toney221808%0.6
Noah Gray111404%1.5
Blake Bell11304%-0.2
Jerick McKinnon230113%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton880.000
Trent McDuffie610.001
Juan Thornhill430.011
Willie Gay320.001
Chris Jones322.500
Leo Chenal310.000
Justin Reid311.002
Michael Danna212.000
George Karlaftis210.500
L'Jarius Sneed110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jarrett Stidham22/36219116-9.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jarrett Stidham7507.103.0
Josh Jacobs17452.60-3.9
Zamir White144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams5973026%0.8
Hunter Renfrow7763121%7.4
Darren Waller2635018%-1.6
Mack Hollins231509%-1.5
Ameer Abdullah121006%0.1
Foster Moreau111003%0.4
Josh Jacobs23509%-0.9
Keelan Cole12506%-0.7
Jakob Johnson11303%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Duron Harmon610.000
Luke Masterson330.000
Trevon Moehrig220.001
Sidney Jones220.001
Maxx Crosby221.000
Roderic Teamer310.000
Clelin Ferrell121.000
Tyler Hall110.000
Amik Robertson200.001
Isaiah Pola-Mao200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -9
Closing total
51.5
KC moneyline
-407
LV moneyline
+338

Chiefs closed -9 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 44 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
KC 6 days · LV 6 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Josh McDaniels

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.