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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q2 0:19, 1st and 10, on Jerry Jeudy — 15.3 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:19, Broncos +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:19 · 1st and 10
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos
(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at LAC 3 for 57 yards (32-A.Gilman). Penalty on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Holding, declined.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at LAC 3 for 57 yards (32-A.Gilman). Penalty on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Holding, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Badie's 24-yard touchdown catch with 11:51 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Tyler Badie24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+717–2410 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 67 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Broncos’s 62 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Broncos 5.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.3 pts in week 17 against −11.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.5% in week 17 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 54.2% in week 17 against 31.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · −0.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers1.6 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 66 snaps
Broncos-11.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.8 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 93%
Tendencies room →Chargers63.5%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 52 early downs
Broncos42.9%leaned — ran early · −13.3 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers23.9%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Broncos27.6%inside their normal wobble · +9.4 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 78%
Fourth Down room →Chargers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −30.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±18.2 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos33.3%right on their number · +7.2 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 60%
Tendencies room →Chargers31.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Broncos17.4%leaned — sat back · −12.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Chargers13.8%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Broncos4.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 30.4 points below their season mean of 30.4% and 1.7 times their own 18.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
13/24, 283 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
4.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
25/37, 273 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.4 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Keenan Allen banked 13.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.2 | +13.4 | 76% | 85% | 25% | 33% | 8/11, 102 yd, 2 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.3 | +11.8 | 97% | 100% | 27% | 49% | 3 car, 39 yd · 5/6, 154 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/24, 283 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 18 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 18.8 | +5.5 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 25/37, 273 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 18.8 | +5.1 | 60% | 62% | 5% | 0% | 15 car, 103 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | +0.7 | 94% | 100% | 32% | 32% | 3/7, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +0.9 | 79% | 85% | 14% | 11% | 4/6, 39 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.0 | 44% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 3/5, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler BadieRB | 9.4 | +7.5 | 14% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −3.0 | 49% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 11 car, 34 yd · 4/4, 36 yd |
| Freddie SwainWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +3.0 | 32% | 48% | 14% | 16% | 2/3, 54 yd |
| Chase DanielQB | 7.4 | +2.5 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 5/7, 25 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +4.0 | 38% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −0.1 | 37% | 36% | 11% | 18% | 4/5, 32 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −2.2 | 60% | 62% | 11% | 24% | 3/5, 43 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.8 | 51% | 47% | 5% | 9% | 2/2, 31 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 4.5 | −0.4 | 37% | 31% | 0% | — | 9 car, 45 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 3.4 | −5.3 | 41% | 47% | 9% | 4% | 5 car, 18 yd · 1/4, 6 yd |
| Larry RountreeRB | 1.5 | −1.1 | 12% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 3 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | −2.6 | 35% | 24% | 9% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 45% | 62% | 5% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 34% | 26% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:20) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to DEN 48 for no gain (31-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (31-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at DEN 46. 47-J.Jewell to LAC 49 for 5 yards (30-A.Ekeler).
Q2 6:20 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at DEN 48 · gained nothing · -5.44 EP · −14.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 89 yards from the DEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers6
Broncos0Chargers7Broncos0Chargers7Broncos6Chargers7Broncos7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Chargers13Broncos7Chargers14Broncos7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Chargers14Broncos10Chargers17Broncos10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Chargers17Broncos16Chargers17Broncos17Chargers17Broncos23Chargers17Broncos24Chargers20Broncos24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Chargers20Broncos30Chargers20Broncos31Chargers26Broncos31Chargers28Broncos31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/37 | 273 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +15.4 |
| Chase Daniel | 5/7 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 102 | 2 | 25% | +8.9 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Breiden Fehoko | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/24 | 283 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_LAC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 59 — over by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Larry Rountree | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| −3.0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 14% | +2.9 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +5.3 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| Larry Rountree | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Tre' McKitty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 6 | 154 | 0 | 27% | +8.0 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 14% | +3.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 32% | +0.0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5% | +2.7 |
| Andrew Beck | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −6.2 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Essang Bassey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
