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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers

28

Denver BroncosWinner

31

DEN -6 no coverO 38.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:19, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑LAC ↓
Q2 · 0:19LAC 17 — DEN 10DEN ball · 1st & 10LAC 57%

(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at LAC 3 for 57 yards (32-A.Gilman). Penalty on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:19DEN +15% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at LAC 3 for 57 yards (32-A.Gilman). Penalty on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Holding, declined.
  2. Q2 · 6:20LAC +15% win prob(6:20) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to DEN 48 for no gain (31-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (31-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at DEN 46. 47-J.Jewell to LAC 49 for 5 yards (30-A.Ekeler).
  3. Q2 · 4:53DEN +12% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left end to LAC 20 for 25 yards (26-A.Samuel).
  4. Q2 · 0:31DEN +11% win prob(:31) 15-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:22LAC Touchdown

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — DEN 0
  2. Q1 · 3:58DEN Touchdown

    (3:58) 28-L.Murray right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — DEN 7
  3. Q2 · 11:01LAC Touchdown

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — DEN 7
  4. Q2 · 2:46DEN Field goal

    (2:46) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — DEN 10
  5. Q2 · 0:31LAC Field goal

    (:31) 15-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — DEN 10
  6. Q2 · 0:10DEN Touchdown

    (:10) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 87-E.Tomlinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — DEN 17
  7. Q3 · 11:51DEN Touchdown

    (11:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 36-T.Badie for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — DEN 24
  8. Q3 · 6:46LAC Field goal

    (6:46) 15-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — DEN 24
  9. Q4 · 11:21DEN Touchdown

    (11:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — DEN 31
  10. Q4 · 6:06LAC Touchdown

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LAC 28 — DEN 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersBroncos
Offensive plays6762
Total yards355471 (edge)
Yards per play5.37.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.050.15 (edge)
Success rate45% (edge)44%
Dropback rate70%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.420.19 (edge)
Third downs7/14 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)413 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)20
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers21 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

13/24, 283 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

4.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

25/37, 273 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

15 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Chase EdmondsRB

9 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

5/6 for 154 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

8/11 for 102 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 2510753:43Touchdown +7
2DENDEN 2515567:22Touchdown +7
3LACLAC 25561:25Punt
4DENDEN 13430:53Punt
5LACLAC 4713545:40Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 255-92:46Punt
7LACLAC 274251:59Fumble
8DENLAC 497343:29Field goal +3
9LACLAC 257151:08Punt
10DENDEN 20450:27Punt
11LACLAC 376180:42Field goal +3
12DENDEN 255750:20Touchdown +7
13LACLAC 25200:06End of half
14DENDEN 258753:18Touchdown +7
15LACLAC 256221:45Punt
16DENDEN 53521:07Interception
17LACDEN 465282:08Field goal +3
18DENDEN 256202:15Punt
19LACLAC 129734:06Fumble
20DENDEN 119954:06Touchdown +7
21LACLAC 25572:10Punt
22LACDEN 297313:03Touchdown +8
23DENDEN 255191:46Punt
24LACLAC 40411:02Punt
25DENDEN 47463:14End of game

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert25/3727320115.4
Chase Daniel5/7251002.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler11343.10-6.0
Joshua Kelley5183.60-0.0
Chase Daniel144.00-0.8
Larry Rountree341.30-1.4
Justin Herbert2-1-0.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen811102225%8.9
DeAndre Carter3543011%-3.0
Josh Palmer4639014%2.9
Austin Ekeler443609%5.3
Mike Williams4532011%1.5
Donald Parham223105%1.9
Gerald Everett358111%-0.4
Joshua Kelley14609%-2.1
Larry Rountree11102%-0.4
Tre' McKitty01002%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James240.001
Breiden Fehoko230.000
Alohi Gilman410.000
Ja'Sir Taylor410.000
Kyle Van Noy321.001
Drue Tranquill230.000
Asante Samuel300.000
Amen Ogbongbemiga120.000
Austin Ekeler200.000
Nasir Adderley200.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson13/242833124.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Latavius Murray151036.914.0
Chase Edmonds9455.00-0.5
Jerry Jeudy33913.002.2
Russell Wilson8182.300.0
Tyler Badie100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jerry Jeudy56154027%8.0
Freddie Swain2354014%3.4
Courtland Sutton3733132%0.0
Tyler Badie112415%2.3
Latavius Murray111505%0.4
Eric Tomlinson11315%2.7
Andrew Beck02009%-6.2
Albert Okwuegbunam01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton740.000
Justin Simmons730.000
Ja'Quan McMillian610.000
Josey Jewell500.000
Kareem Jackson310.000
Eyioma Uwazurike310.000
Essang Bassey120.001
Jonathon Cooper120.000
Patrick Surtain100.000
Baron Browning101.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -6
Closing total
38.5
LAC moneyline
+222
DEN moneyline
-254

Broncos closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 59 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
43°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
LAC 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Jay Rosburg

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.