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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles Rams

16

Seattle SeahawksWinner

19

SEA -5.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, LA +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4SEA ↑LA ↓
Q4 · 0:03LA 16 — SEA 16SEA ball · 3rd & 8SEA 83%

(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03LA +30% win prob(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
  2. Q4 · 0:40SEA +24% win prob(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle ran ob at LA 45 for 25 yards (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 45.
  3. OT · 9:26SEA +20% win prob(9:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 26 for 6 yards (83-D.Young).
  4. OT · 7:52SEA +17% win prob(7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LA 27 for 20 yards (37-Q.Lake).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:31LA Field goal

    (13:31) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 7:13SEA Field goal

    (7:13) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 3
  3. Q1 · 0:20SEA Field goal

    (:20) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 6
  4. Q2 · 12:02LA Field goal

    (12:02) 8-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SEA 6
  5. Q2 · 0:45LA Touchdown

    (:45) 15-T.Atwell left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 6
  6. Q3 · 9:16SEA Touchdown

    (9:16) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 13
  7. Q3 · 4:17LA Field goal

    (4:17) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 16 — SEA 13
  8. Q4 · 2:23SEA Field goal

    (2:23) 61-K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 16 — SEA 16
  9. OT · 4:38SEA Field goal

    (4:38) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 16 — SEA 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsSeahawks
Offensive plays5869
Total yards270402 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.12-0.10 (edge)
Success rate34%42% (edge)
Dropback rate55%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.34-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.13
Third downs4/14 (edge)1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1320 (edge)
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

19/31, 213 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.5 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Baker MayfieldQB

13/26, 147 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -10.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

29 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

21 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Van JeffersonWR

3/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

4/7 for 54 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 25200:10Interception
2LASEA 11471:22Field goal +3
3SEASEA 2512616:19Field goal +3
4LALA 255-22:09Punt
5SEALA 498364:45Field goal +3
6LALA 258483:17Field goal +3
7SEASEA 25542:16Punt
8LALA 327313:43Punt
9SEASEA 206192:20Punt
10LALA 1310873:00Touchdown +7
11SEASEA 40560:29Punt
12LALA 26100:10End of half
13LALA 25993:29Punt
14SEASEA 126882:22Touchdown +7
15LALA 1910624:56Field goal +3
16SEASEA 255181:48Interception
17LALA 416153:11Punt
18SEASEA 17432:16Punt
19LALA 357102:23Punt
20SEASEA 1416777:16Field goal +3
21LALA 25581:23Punt
22SEASEA 205370:56Missed field goal
23SEASEA 25530:44Punt
24LALA 262-50:52Interception
25SEASEA 368503:50Field goal +3

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield13/26147015-11.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers211045.000.5
Baker Mayfield5163.200.3
Brandon Powell11515.001.1
Tutu Atwell11111.012.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Van Jefferson3761029%2.2
Tyler Higbee4733029%0.2
Tutu Atwell2327013%0.2
Cam Akers3324013%-1.0
Brandon Powell132013%-2.2
Brycen Hopkins01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quentin Lake621.001
Bobby Wagner700.000
Marquise Copeland240.000
Troy Hill420.001
Taylor Rapp500.001
Michael Hoecht321.000
Jalen Ramsey500.023
Earnest Brown320.000
Ernest Jones310.000
Cobie Durant310.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith19/31213123-7.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker291143.90-5.1
Geno Smith45112.804.9
DeeJay Dallas22914.500.8
Nick Bellore133.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett4754125%2.2
Colby Parkinson2347011%3.1
DK Metcalf3840029%-10.4
Dareke Young222407%2.1
Cade Johnson222107%1.2
Noah Fant4420014%-0.6
Kenneth Walker111004%0.4
DeeJay Dallas11-304%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Coby Bryant331.000
Michael Jackson320.001
Cody Barton410.001
Johnathan Abram320.000
Quandre Diggs310.011
Uchenna Nwosu220.501
Shelby Harris120.000
Poona Ford120.000
Tariq Woolen210.001
Boye Mafe211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Closing total
41.5
LA moneyline
+198
SEA moneyline
-224

Seahawks closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LA 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.