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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 8, on Jason Myers — 29.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Rams +29.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 8
Jason Myers
Rams
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
29.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 11 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Myers's 32-yard field goal with 4:38 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+316–16Jason Myers32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+316–199 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 58 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 69 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Seahawks 5.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 28.1%, is past their previous high of 25.7% in week 13 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-5.8 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 58 snaps
Seahawks-6.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.2 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 88%
Tendencies room →Rams46.5%leaned — ran early · −10.5 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 43 early downs
Seahawks50.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.0 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Rams43.8%leaned — faked the run · +15.3 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Seahawks24.3%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Rams20.0%inside their normal wobble · −17.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks25.0%inside their normal wobble · −12.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±23.4 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 58%
Tendencies room →Rams40.5%leaned — sent pressure · +12.2 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks21.9%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Rams16.2%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks28.1%leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.1%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.9 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
19/31, 213 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-7.5 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected
Passing · LA
13/26, 147 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.5 expected points added · -10.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Lockett banked 4.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | +4.2 | 79% | 84% | 25% | 36% | 4/7, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 213 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 51 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.4 | −11.9 | 87% | 76% | 4% | 0% | 29 car, 114 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −7.1 | 83% | 87% | 29% | 39% | 3/8, 40 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +1.7 | 79% | 68% | 11% | 14% | 2/3, 47 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.2 | 64% | 63% | 14% | 6% | 4/4, 20 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.6 | 24% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Cade JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.8 | 41% | 50% | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 3.6 | +0.9 | 16% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 29 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:03 · Seahawks · 3rd & 8 at LA 28 · gained nothing · -2.23 EP · −23.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams3
Seahawks0Rams3Seahawks3Rams3Seahawks6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Rams6Seahawks6How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Rams12Seahawks6Rams13Seahawks6How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams13Seahawks12Rams13Seahawks13Rams16Seahawks13How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Rams16Seahawks16How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Rams16Seahawks19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 13/26 | 147 | 0 | 1 | 5 | −11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 21 | 104 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Brandon Powell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 29% | +2.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Lake | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Wagner | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Copeland |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/31 | 213 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_LA_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 15.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 | +2.6 |
| +0.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13% | −2.2 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Troy Hill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Hoecht | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Earnest Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 29 | 114 | 3.9 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | +4.9 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Nick Bellore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 | 25% | +2.2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 11% | +3.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 29% | −10.4 |
| Dareke Young | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Cade Johnson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Bryant | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johnathan Abram | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boye Mafe | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
