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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 16 at Seattle Seahawks 19. Final.
Seahawks -5.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Seattle Seahawks 19, Rams 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 8, on Jason Myers — 29.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 8
Jason Myers
Rams
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Seahawks closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Rams +29.9% win probability on one snap.
29.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno SmithSeahawksQ4 0:40(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle ran ob at LA 45 for 25 yards (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 45.
23.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksOT 9:26(9:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 26 for 6 yards (83-D.Young).
20.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 11 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams169 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing −29.9 for SeahawksExpected points −2.23 for SeahawksThe model had Rams 6 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03LA +30% win prob(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 0:40SEA +24% win prob(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle ran ob at LA 45 for 25 yards (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 45.
Overtime · 9:26SEA +20% win prob(9:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 26 for 6 yards (83-D.Young).
Overtime · 7:52SEA +17% win prob(7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LA 27 for 20 yards (37-Q.Lake).
3rd · 9:16SEA +16% win prob(9:16) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:08LA +16% win prob(1:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 32-yard field goal with 4:38 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:31Matt Gay·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+33–0
1st7:13Jason Myers·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–3
1st0:20Jason Myers·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–6
2nd12:02Matt Gay·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+36–6
3rd4:17Matt Gay·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+316–13
4th2:23K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+316–16
Overtime4:38Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams4–5Seahawks
270Total yards402
4.7Yards per play5.8
34%Success rate42%
29%Third-down rate9%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays7
13First downs20
5Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Rams: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Rams: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Rams: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 58 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 69 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 28.1%, is past their previous high of 25.7% in week 13 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks28.1%
leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.1%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.9 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
67Chandler BrewerT · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%61 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%61 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Full-time93%57 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time89%54 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Full-time80%49 snaps
68Ty NsekheT · Full-time80%49 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Rotational25%15 snaps
61A.J. ArcuriT · Situational20%12 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Situational11%7 snaps
46Jared PinkneyTE · Situational3%2 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCShaun JollyDBAaron DonaldDTTravin HowardILBJohn WolfordQBBen SkowronekWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Jason Myers−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:03) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:03 · Seahawks · 3rd & 8 at LA 28 · gained nothing · -2.23 EP · −23.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
37%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1554%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1061%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.4646%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0956%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Rams3Seahawks0
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 4
Rams3Seahawks3
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
Rams3Seahawks6
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Rams 18
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams6Seahawks6
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 27
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Seahawks 43
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Rams12Seahawks6
Rams13Seahawks6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Seahawks 11
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Rams13Seahawks12
Rams13Seahawks13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Rams 36
Rams16Seahawks13
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Seahawks 19
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Seahawks 44
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Seahawks 44
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 35 to midfield
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSeven linemen, two backs and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams16Seahawks16
Field goal22 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Rams 1
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Rams 28
Overtime18 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams16Seahawks19
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Rams 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
