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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 29, Bears 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:08, 3rd and 7, on K.J. Osborn — 12.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:08 · 3rd and 7
K.J. Osborn
Vikings
(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).
32°F
Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Minnesota Vikings 29–13. Biggest swing: Q1 11:08, Vikings +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalvin CookBearsQ1 4:20(4:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left end to CHI 37 for 1 yard (30-H.Hand). FUMBLES (30-H.Hand), touched at CHI 32, RECOVERED by CHI-45-J.Thomas at CHI 29.
4.3pts
Greg JosephVikingsQ4 15:00(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
4.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.65 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 9 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bears at 5 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Vikings154 of 168 plays carry both curves
(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).
Swing −12.2 for BearsExpected points −5.95 for BearsThe model had Bears 28 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:08CHI +12% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).
1st · 4:20MIN +4% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left end to CHI 37 for 1 yard (30-H.Hand). FUMBLES (30-H.Hand), touched at CHI 32, RECOVERED by CHI-45-J.Thomas at CHI 29.
4th · 15:00CHI +4% win prob(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
2nd · 0:01MIN +4% win prob(:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. The Replay Official reviewed the too many players on field ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on MIN, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 6 - No Play.
1st · 8:12MIN +4% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman sacked at MIN 34 for -6 yards (91-P.Jones).
1st · 9:22CHI +3% win prob(9:22) 14-N.Peterman pass deep left to 12-V.Jones to MIN 32 for 28 yards (7-P.Peterson). Penalty on MIN-7-P.Peterson, Illegal Contact, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Thielen's 4-yard touchdown catch with 10:16 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:16Adam Thielen·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousinsfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
4th15:00Greg Joseph·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+326–13
4th3:43Greg Joseph·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+329–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Vikings8–0Bears
482Total yards261
6.8Yards per play5.3
55%Success rate33%
55%Third-down rate22%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays5
27First downs14
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Vikings: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.65Vikings: +0.65 expected points added per play
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Vikings: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 71 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bears’s 49 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Bears 2.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's play-action rate, 44.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 17.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bears5.9%
inside their normal wobble · −2.2 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.0%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 59.9% and 1.5 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).
Q1 11:08 · Vikings · 3rd & 7 at MIN 30 · gained 66 · +5.95 EP · +17.4% win probability
152 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.4154%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.4873%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0520%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.5040%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2180%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2014%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings6Bears0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Bears 4
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Vikings 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Bears 31
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Vikings 40
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Vikings12Bears0
Vikings13Bears0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Bears 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 31
Vikings16Bears0
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 5
Vikings16Bears6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 42
The period ended17 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 5
3rd quarter36 plays
Vikings22Bears6
Vikings23Bears6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 1
Vikings23Bears12
Vikings23Bears13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 27
4th quarter48 plays
Vikings26Bears13
Field goal1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 44
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Vikings 39
Vikings29Bears13
Field goal14 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Bears 21
Intercepted5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 44
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
