2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Chicago Bears

MIN -6.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓32°FVikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Minnesota Vikings 29–13. Biggest swing: Q1 11:08, CHI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:08MIN 0 — CHI 0MIN ball · 3rd & 7MIN 74%

(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:08CHI +12% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at CHI 4 for 66 yards (37-E.Hicks).
Q1 · 4:20MIN +4% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left end to CHI 37 for 1 yard (30-H.Hand). FUMBLES (30-H.Hand), touched at CHI 32, RECOVERED by CHI-45-J.Thomas at CHI 29.
Q4 · 15:00CHI +4% win prob(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q2 · 0:01MIN +4% win prob(:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. The Replay Official reviewed the too many players on field ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on MIN, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 6 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:16MIN Touchdown
(10:16) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — CHI 0
Q2 · 9:24MIN Touchdown
(9:24) 68-K.Hinton reported in as eligible. 2-A.Mattison right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — CHI 0
Q2 · 5:02MIN Field goal
(5:02) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 16 — CHI 0
Q2 · 3:42CHI Touchdown
(3:42) 12-V.Jones right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 16 — CHI 6
Q3 · 9:28MIN Touchdown
(9:28) (No Huddle) 2-A.Mattison left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 23 — CHI 6
Q3 · 4:16CHI Touchdown
(4:16) 14-N.Peterman pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 23 — CHI 13
Q4 · 15:00MIN Field goal
(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 26 — CHI 13
Q4 · 3:43MIN Field goal
(3:43) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 29 — CHI 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bears
Offensive plays	71	49
Total yards	482 (edge)	261
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	55% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	48%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.65 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

17/20, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

16.6 expected points added · +23.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Nick MullensQB

11/13, 116 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

5.6 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

10 att, 54 yds, 2 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

10 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

K.J. OsbornWR

5/6 for 117 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Jalen NailorWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 21	5	9	2:31	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 27	5	73	2:17	Touchdown +6
3	CHI	CHI 34	7	32	3:05	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 14	7	59	2:55	Fumble
5	CHI	CHI 29	8	37	3:23	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 34	13	66	6:29	Touchdown +7
7	CHI	CHI 28	4	3	1:01	Interception
8	MIN	CHI 35	6	30	3:22	Field goal +3
9	CHI	CHI 25	5	75	1:26	Touchdown +6
10	MIN	MIN 25	11	69	3:31	End of half
11	MIN	MIN 25	13	75	5:35	Touchdown +7
12	CHI	CHI 25	12	75	5:18	Touchdown +7
13	MIN	MIN 25	9	33	4:12	Field goal +3
14	CHI	CHI 25	7	18	3:23	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 18	4	28	2:14	Interception
16	CHI	CHI 47	7	12	2:04	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 41	9	41	3:35	Field goal +3
18	CHI	CHI 24	5	0	0:26	Interception
19	MIN	MIN 36	4	8	2:26	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 24	2	0	0:47	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	17/20	225	1	0	0	16.6
Nick Mullens	11/13	116	0	1	0	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	10	54	5.4	2	5.9
Dalvin Cook	11	37	3.4	0	-6.9
Ty Chandler	6	20	3.3	0	-1.3
Kene Nwangwu	5	13	2.6	0	-1.5
Nick Mullens	4	8	2.0	0	-0.7
Jalen Reagor	1	5	5.0	0	0.4
Adam Thielen	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
K.J. Osborn	5	6	117	0	19%	9.9
Jalen Nailor	4	5	62	0	16%	1.8
C.J. Ham	4	4	47	0	13%	3.7
Justin Jefferson	4	5	38	0	16%	1.0
Jalen Reagor	2	2	17	0	6%	2.9
Kene Nwangwu	1	1	16	0	3%	1.1
T.J. Hockenson	1	1	16	0	3%	2.5
Irv Smith	3	3	14	0	9%	0.0
Adam Thielen	2	3	8	1	9%	0.3
Alexander Mattison	1	1	6	0	3%	0.4
Dalvin Cook	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kris Boyd	4	1	0.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	2	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Jones	3	1	1.0	0	0
Duke Shelley	2	1	0.0	1	1
Josh Metellus	2	0	0.0	0	3
Theo Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Luiji Vilain	1	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	0	0.0	1	1
William Kwenkeu	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	1	1	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nathan Peterman	11/19	114	1	0	1	-3.7
Tim Boyle	2/8	33	0	2	0	-5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	10	50	5.0	0	0.5
Velus Jones	1	42	42.0	1	4.2
David Montgomery	7	21	3.0	0	-3.0
Nathan Peterman	2	7	3.5	0	-0.2
Tim Boyle	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Kmet	4	5	57	1	19%	3.7
Chase Claypool	2	6	29	0	22%	-2.4
Velus Jones	1	2	28	0	7%	-0.1
Dante Pettis	2	6	19	0	22%	-4.6
N'Keal Harry	1	2	7	0	7%	0.7
Byron Pringle	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.4
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
Trestan Ebner	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.5
Khalil Herbert	1	2	-1	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Joe Thomas	9	4	0	0
Jaquan Brisker	4	5	0	1
Harrison Hand	8	0	0	0
Elijah Hicks	3	5	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	3	5	0	0
Greg Stroman	3	4	1	1
Trevis Gipson	2	2	0	0
Nicholas Morrow	4	0	0	0
A.J. Thomas	2	0	0	0
Chase Claypool	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -6.5
Closing total: 42.5
MIN moneyline: -260
CHI moneyline: +227

Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 42 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIN 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.