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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q3 7:06 — 21.6 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 35–23. Biggest swing: Q3 7:06, Bills +21.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:06
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 101-yard return touchdown with 7:06 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Nyheim Miller-Hines101-yd return TD101-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+717–21
DeVante Parker26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jones · two-point no good+623–289 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 7.
Patriots outgained Bills 345-330 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots5.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.9 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 63 snaps
Bills9.0 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 86%
Tendencies room →Patriots58.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 48 early downs
Bills63.6%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 45%
Tendencies room →Patriots21.4%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bills25.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%leaned — went for it · +45.0 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 59%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.1%leaned — sat back · −15.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills14.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots8.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills9.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.0 points above their season mean of 21.7% and 1.7 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
19/31, 254 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
8.4 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Passing · NE
26/40, 243 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT
-1.7 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeVante Parker banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 25.9 | +11.9 | 82% | 86% | 18% | 40% | 6/7, 79 yd, 2 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | +5.5 | 76% | 89% | 32% | 37% | 7/10, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 254 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 16 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/40, 243 yd, 3 TD, 3 INT · 4 car, 5 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Receiving Back | 13.2 | +0.5 | 49% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 6 car, 54 yd · 5/6, 28 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +0.6 | 90% | 88% | 18% | 16% | 3/7, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 12.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +8.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | −0.3 | 100% | 100% | 18% | 17% | 6/7, 42 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +4.1 | 81% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +0.9 | 53% | 58% | 13% | 9% | 4/5, 45 yd |
| James CookRB | 7.1 | −0.2 | 56% | 53% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 45 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 6.9 | −14.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 6.2 | −6.1 | 53% | 49% | 10% | 4% | 13 car, 48 yd · 1/4, 4 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.7 | 56% | 72% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.1 | 25% | 25% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 28 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.4 | 54% | 53% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 2.2 | −5.5 | 41% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 29 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:06 · Bills · Kickoff at NE 35 · gained nothing · +5.59 EP · +23.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 85 yards from the NE 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Bills6Patriots0Bills7Patriots6Bills7Patriots7Bills7Patriots7Bills13Patriots7Bills14Patriots13Bills14Patriots14Bills14How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots17Bills14Patriots17Bills20Patriots17Bills21How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots17Bills27Patriots17Bills28Patriots23Bills28How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Patriots23Bills34Patriots23Bills35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/40 | 243 | 3 | 3 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Damien Harris | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Mac Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 7 | 79 | 2 | 18% | +6.3 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/31 | 254 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_NE_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 44; the game landed 58 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| 13% |
| +2.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 18% | +0.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 18% | +2.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 15% | −0.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −5.1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 10 | 104 | 1 | 32% | +8.0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 3% | +4.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 32% | −3.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +1.8 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6% | +2.4 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Poyer | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaq Lawson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Settle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
