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New England Patriots 23 at Buffalo Bills 35. Final.
Bills -8 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Buffalo Bills 35, Patriots 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:06 — 21.6 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:06
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.6
31°F
Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.
Buffalo Bills 35–23. Biggest swing: Q3 7:06, Bills +21.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 15:006-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to BUF 4. 20-N.Hines for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7pts
Devin McCourtyPatriotsQ2 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (90-C.Barmore) [9-M.Judon] at NE 3. 32-D.McCourty to NE 33 for 30 yards (88-D.Knox).
13.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots155 of 164 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 7:06Patriots 17 — Bills 20BUF ballBUF 55%
Patriots 45%Bills 55%
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.6 for BillsExpected points +5.59 for BillsThe model had Patriots 12 points higher than the market did.play 98
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:06BUF +22% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00BUF +16% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to BUF 4. 20-N.Hines for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:26NE +13% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (90-C.Barmore) [9-M.Judon] at NE 3. 32-D.McCourty to NE 33 for 30 yards (88-D.Knox).
3rd · 8:43NE +12% win prob(8:43) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to BUF 9 for 2 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at BUF 11.
3rd · 9:32NE +10% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 2. 27-T.White to BUF 2 for no gain (15-N.Agholor).
4th · 8:59BUF +10% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 101-yard return touchdown with 7:06 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00Nyheim Miller-Hines·96-yd return TD96-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–7
1st5:50Jakobi Meyers·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+77–7
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Patriots: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.10Bills: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.18Bills: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 7.
NotePatriots outgained Bills 345-330 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteNE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 45.0 points above their season mean of 21.7% and 1.7 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Folk kicks+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:06 · Bills · Kickoff at NE 35 · gained nothing · +5.59 EP · +23.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 85 yards from the NE 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
46%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0467%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3476%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0533%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2450%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Patriots0Bills6
Patriots0Bills7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 46
Patriots6Bills7
Patriots7Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Bills 2
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 21
2nd quarter43 plays
Patriots7Bills13
Patriots7Bills14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 28
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Patriots 49
Patriots13Bills14
Patriots14Bills14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Patriots 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Bills 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Bills 7
Patriots17Bills14
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 6
Patriots17Bills20
Patriots17Bills21
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Bills 47
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Patriots17Bills27
Patriots17Bills28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Patriots 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 48
4th quarter45 plays
Patriots23Bills28
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Bills 26
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Patriots23Bills34
Patriots23Bills35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Patriots 47
Punt5 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 13
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Patriots 49
Intercepted3 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
