2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · New Era Field

New England Patriots

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -8 ✓O 44 ✓30°FBills closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.

Buffalo Bills 35–23. Biggest swing: Q3 7:06, BUF +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:06NE 17 — BUF 20BUF ballBUF 55%

6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:06BUF +22% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:00BUF +16% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to BUF 4. 20-N.Hines for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:26NE +13% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (90-C.Barmore) [9-M.Judon] at NE 3. 32-D.McCourty to NE 33 for 30 yards (88-D.Knox).
Q3 · 8:43NE +12% win prob(8:43) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to BUF 9 for 2 yards (31-Jo.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Jo.Jones), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at BUF 11.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to BUF 4. 20-N.Hines for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — BUF 7
Q1 · 5:50NE Touchdown
(5:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 7
Q2 · 14:23BUF Touchdown
(14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 14
Q2 · 3:51NE Touchdown
(3:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 14
Q3 · 7:09NE Field goal
(7:09) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 17 — BUF 14
Q3 · 7:06BUF Touchdown
6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — BUF 21
Q3 · 1:43BUF Touchdown
(1:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-J.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — BUF 28
Q4 · 11:43NE Touchdown
(11:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 23 — BUF 28
Q4 · 8:59BUF Touchdown
(8:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — BUF 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	64	55
Total yards	345 (edge)	330
Yards per play	5.4	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	47%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	4/13	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Patriots outgained Bills 345–330 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/31, 254 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.4 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

26/40, 243 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

6 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/10 for 104 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

6/7 for 79 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	—	2	0	0:14	Defensive touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 26	5	-7	1:37	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 32	6	1	2:40	Punt
4	NE	NE 26	10	74	4:44	Touchdown +7
5	BUF	BUF 25	15	75	6:30	Touchdown +7
6	NE	NE 25	5	3	1:31	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 34	7	13	3:28	Punt
8	NE	NE 26	10	74	5:31	Touchdown +7
9	BUF	BUF 28	12	57	3:29	Interception
10	NE	NE 33	2	0	0:16	End of half
11	NE	NE 19	11	60	5:34	Interception
12	BUF	BUF 2	2	7	0:52	Fumble
13	NE	BUF 11	4	5	1:28	Field goal +3
14	BUF	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 39	7	14	2:16	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 19	8	81	3:02	Touchdown +7
17	NE	NE 15	10	90	4:58	Touchdown +6
18	BUF	BUF 40	6	75	2:46	Touchdown +7
19	NE	NE 25	5	0	0:29	Punt
20	NE	BUF 35	6	23	3:30	Interception
21	BUF	BUF 39	6	10	1:27	Punt
22	NE	NE 19	3	9	0:43	Interception
23	BUF	NE 31	5	11	2:42	End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	26/40	243	3	3	1	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	6	54	9.0	2.2
Damien Harris	13	48	3.7	-2.1
Mac Jones	4	5	1.3	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	6	7	79	2	18%	6.3
Kendrick Bourne	4	5	45	0	13%	2.9
Hunter Henry	6	7	42	0	18%	0.5
Jakobi Meyers	3	7	32	1	18%	2.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	5	6	28	0	15%	-0.5
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	13	0	5%	-0.4
Damien Harris	1	4	4	0	10%	-5.1
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	3	0.0	0	0
Marcus Jones	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	4	1	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	3	2	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	2	0.0	1	2
Deatrich Wise	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0.0	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	1	1	0.0	0	0
Daniel Ekuale	1	1	1.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	19/31	254	3	1	2	8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	9	45	5.0	1.1
Devin Singletary	7	29	4.1	-4.5
Josh Allen	9	16	1.8	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	7	10	104	1	32%	8.0
John Brown	1	1	42	1	3%	4.2
Gabe Davis	3	10	39	0	32%	-3.3
Khalil Shakir	1	2	28	0	6%	1.8
Isaiah McKenzie	2	3	19	0	10%	1.1
Dawson Knox	2	2	13	1	6%	2.4
James Cook	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.9
Devin Singletary	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Matt Milano	7	1	0.0	1	2
Jordan Poyer	5	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	4	2	0.0	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	5	1	0.0	1	3
Gregory Rousseau	4	1	1.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0.0	1	1
Shaq Lawson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kaiir Elam	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dawson Knox	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tim Settle	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -8
Closing total: 44
NE moneyline: +314
BUF moneyline: -373

Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 44; the game landed 58 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 30°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.