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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York16
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia22
New York Giants 16 at Philadelphia Eagles 22. Final.
Eagles -16.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Philadelphia Eagles 22, Giants 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:43, 4th and 8, on Jake Elliott — 5.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:43 · 4th and 8
Jake Elliott
Giants
(11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Eagles closed -16.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 22–16. Biggest swing: Q1 11:43, Giants +5.3% win probability on one snap.
5.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ1 13:37(13:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 14 yards (49-T.Fox).
4.8pts
Dallas GoedertEaglesQ1 9:44(9:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 34 for 6 yards (44-N.McCloud, 28-C.Flott).
2.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Swing −5.3 for EaglesExpected points +0.24 for EaglesThe model had Giants 31 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:43NYG +5% win prob(11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
1st · 13:37NYG +5% win prob(13:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 14 yards (49-T.Fox).
1st · 9:44PHI +3% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 34 for 6 yards (44-N.McCloud, 28-C.Flott).
1st · 7:50PHI +2% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to NYG 28 for 37 yards (25-R.Williams).
1st · 10:41NYG +2% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 29 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton).
2nd · 12:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 32-yard field goal with 11:43 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:43Jake Elliott·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+30–3
2nd10:27Jake Elliott·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+30–13
2nd0:49Jake Elliott·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+30–16
3rd6:21Jake Elliott·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+30–19
3rd0:53Graham Gano·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–19
4th10:10Davis Webb·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+69–19
4th3:24Jake Elliott·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+39–22
4th1:43Kenny Golladay·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Webbfrom Davis Webb+716–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants2–6Eagles
284Total yards346
4.4Yards per play5.1
38%Success rate41%
29%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
18First downs22
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Giants: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.00Eagles: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Giants: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 64 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's blitz rate sent, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's blitz rate sent, 54.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 12.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 17.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 18.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Eagles20.0%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 51.2 points below their season mean of 51.2% and 1.9 times their own 26.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to NYG 28 for 37 yards (25-R.Williams).
Q1 7:50 · Eagles · 3rd & 9 at PHI 35 · gained 37 · +3.69 EP · +7.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR53+0.0170%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0372%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0227%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3550%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1714%
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 33
Giants0Eagles3
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Giants 14
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Giants0Eagles9
Giants0Eagles10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Giants 7
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 28
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 48
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 19
Giants0Eagles13
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 34
Punt14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 40
Giants0Eagles16
Field goal18 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Giants 10
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Giants 2
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 37
Giants0Eagles19
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Giants 36
Giants3Eagles19
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 27
4th quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Giants9Eagles19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Eagles 14
Giants9Eagles22
Field goal18 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 3
Giants15Eagles22
Giants16Eagles22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Eagles 25
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -16.5
Closing total
42.5
Giants moneyline
+858
Eagles moneyline
-1252
Eagles closed -16.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 38 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Giants 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NYG +2% win prob
(12:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey ran ob at NYG 49 for 16 yards (21-L.Collins). PENALTY on NYG-21-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 49.
2nd · 13:39NYG +2% win prob(13:39) 13-B.Kern punts 38 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.
