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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
JetsNew York6
BY 5final margin
DolphinsMiami11
New York Jets 6 at Miami Dolphins 11. Final.
Dolphins -3.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Miami Dolphins 11, Jets 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:54, 2nd and 8, on Jaylen Waddle — 12.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:54 · 2nd and 8
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Miami Dolphins 11–6. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, Dolphins +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe FlaccoDolphinsQ4 4:44(4:44) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.
11.4pts
Jason SandersDolphinsQ4 0:23(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jets150 of 160 plays carry both curves
(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
Swing +12.0 for DolphinsExpected points +0.78 for DolphinsThe model had Jets 2 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:54MIA +12% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
4th · 4:44NYJ +11% win prob(4:44) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.
4th · 0:23MIA +11% win prob(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
4th · 8:13MIA +10% win prob(8:13) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 23 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland) [55-J.Baker].
3rd · 9:03MIA +10% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right end pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 8 yards (22-T.Adams; 57-C.Mosley).
4th · 11:10MIA +10% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki to NYJ 46 for 32 yards (30-M.Carter).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 50-yard field goal with 0:23 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd5:22Jason Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+30–3
2nd1:38Greg Zuerlein·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
3rd5:22Jason Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+33–6
4th12:03Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+36–6
4th0:23Jason Sanders·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+36–9
4th0:05Dolphins·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+26–11
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets2–5Dolphins
187Total yards302
3.5Yards per play4.7
30%Success rate34%
44%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays8
10First downs16
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Jets: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.23Dolphins: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Jets: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.06Dolphins: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 53 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Dolphins 2.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's play-action rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 16.7% in week 5.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, is past their previous high of 26.2% in week 10 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −13.0 pts, is past their previous low of −10.4 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.3 pts in week 17 against −9.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins30.3%
off script — got home · +16.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 16.7 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 2.3 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Sanders+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:23 · Dolphins · 4th & 3 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · +1.22 EP · +20.7% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 72 yards from the MIA 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
32%
Yards
489
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0975%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2967%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.1019%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2750%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2450%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.3233%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 44
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Dolphins 39
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 2 to the Jets 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 15
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 21
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 20
No good6 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Dolphins 37
Jets0Dolphins3
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Jets 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets3Dolphins3
Field goal17 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 14
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 49
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jets3Dolphins6
Field goal17 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Jets 13
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 34
4th quarter49 plays
Jets6Dolphins6
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 17
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 11 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 27
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Jets6Dolphins9
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Jets 31
Jets6Dolphins11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
37.5
Jets moneyline
+178
Dolphins moneyline
-200
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 17 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the east; mainly clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Jets 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Mike McDaniel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 3:46
MIA +9% win prob
(3:46) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to MIA 26 for 36 yards (8-J.Holland).
4th · 7:28MIA +9% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 17-G.Wilson. PENALTY on MIA-28-K.Kohou, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at NYJ 23 - No Play.
