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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q4 2:54, 2nd and 8, on Jaylen Waddle — 12.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 11–6. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, Dolphins +12.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:54 · 2nd and 8
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Sanders's 50-yard field goal with 0:23 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Jason Sanders50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+36–9Dolphinssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+26–116 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 53 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Dolphins 2.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's play-action rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, is past their previous high of 26.2% in week 10 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
MIA's pass rate over expected, −13.0 pts, is past their previous low of −10.4 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate, 42.9%, is past their previous low of 47.6% in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.3 pts in week 17 against −9.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-9.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.0 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 53 snaps
Dolphins-13.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −15.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jets54.1%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 37 early downs
Dolphins42.9%leaned — ran early · −14.8 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 67%
Tendencies room →Jets15.2%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins3.0%off script — dropped back clean · −28.9 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−2.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Jets0.0%inside their normal wobble · −30.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins66.7%leaned — went for it · +34.8 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 69%
Tendencies room →Jets6.1%leaned — sat back · −8.5 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins30.3%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jets27.3%leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins30.3%off script — got home · +16.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
MIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 16.7 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 2.3 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
20/31, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-7.1 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
18/33, 149 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.1 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 2.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | −3.1 | 88% | 94% | 53% | 72% | 9/17, 89 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | +2.9 | 75% | 94% | 19% | 16% | 1 car, 9 yd · 5/5, 44 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −0.6 | 65% | 67% | 7% | 0% | 16 car, 72 yd · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | +0.4 | 38% | 67% | 22% | 32% | 4/6, 46 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 8.1 | −0.3 | 37% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 71 yd · 2/2, -10 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | +0.6 | 71% | 48% | 19% | 16% | 3/5, 39 yd |
| Skylar ThompsonQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 152 yd · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/33, 149 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4.5 | −0.8 | 38% | 39% | 9% | 0% | 5 car, 12 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −3.0 | 66% | 79% | 19% | 42% | 2/5, 23 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.4 | 96% | 100% | 13% | 15% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.5 | 77% | 85% | 9% | 5% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 2.5 | −2.5 | 32% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 3 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Zonovan KnightRB · Committee Back | 2.2 | −3.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +1.3 | 70% | 76% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 34% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 23% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Erik EzukanmaWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 0.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:23 · Dolphins · 4th & 3 at NYJ 32 · gained nothing · +1.22 EP · +20.7% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 72 yards from the MIA 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Dolphins3How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets3Dolphins3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Jets3Dolphins6Jets6Dolphins6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets6Dolphins9Jets6Dolphins11Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/33 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zonovan Knight | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Michael Carter |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 17 | 89 | 0 | 53% | +1.4 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Adams | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 20/31 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_NYJ_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 17 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| +0.6 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −2.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwon Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vinny Curry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 22% | −0.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +1.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19% | +0.4 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Raekwon Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Duke Riley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
