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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

6

Miami DolphinsWinner

11

MIA -3.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 11–6. Biggest swing: Q4 2:54, MIA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 2:54NYJ 6 — MIA 6MIA ball · 2nd & 8MIA 59%

(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:54MIA +12% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 43 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley) [94-S.Thomas].
  2. Q4 · 4:44NYJ +11% win prob(4:44) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.
  3. Q4 · 0:23MIA +11% win prob(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
  4. Q4 · 8:13MIA +10% win prob(8:13) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 23 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland) [55-J.Baker].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 5:22MIA Field goal

    (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 3
  2. Q2 · 1:38NYJ Field goal

    (1:38) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 3
  3. Q3 · 5:22MIA Field goal

    (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 6
  4. Q4 · 12:03NYJ Field goal

    (12:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — MIA 6
  5. Q4 · 0:23MIA Field goal

    (:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — MIA 9
  6. Q4 · 0:05MIA Safety

    (:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 12 for -13 yards. Lateral to 19-J.Flacco to NYJ 9 for -3 yards. Lateral to 8-E.Moore to NYJ 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NYJ 5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — MIA 11

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsDolphins
Offensive plays5364
Total yards187302 (edge)
Yards per play3.54.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.14-0.09 (edge)
Success rate30%34% (edge)
Dropback rate62%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.00 (edge)-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.390.06 (edge)
Third downs7/16 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)28 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1016 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers00

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Skylar ThompsonQB

20/31, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-7.1 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Joe FlaccoQB

18/33, 149 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Jeffery WilsonRB

16 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

11 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

9/17 for 89 yds, 0 TD

53% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

4/6 for 46 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 2510365:12Turnover on downs
2NYJNYJ 447142:42Punt
3MIAMIA 29685:45Punt
4NYJNYJ 12492:10Punt
5MIAMIA 18421:46Punt
6NYJNYJ 456181:37Missed field goal
7MIAMIA 4510315:31Field goal +3
8NYJNYJ 2512613:42Field goal +3
9MIAMIA 255121:35End of half
10NYJNYJ 25591:30Punt
11MIAMIA 915778:12Field goal +3
12NYJNYJ 2515738:19Field goal +3
13MIAMIA 257382:54Punt
14NYJNYJ 118112:34Punt
15MIAMIA 106171:47Punt
16NYJNYJ 284121:43Punt
17MIAMIA 328212:43Field goal +3
18NYJNYJ 254-200:18Safety

5 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco18/331490000.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zonovan Knight12221.80-3.8
Ty Johnson5122.40-2.7
Michael Carter341.30-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson91789053%1.4
Corey Davis131709%0.6
Ty Johnson231309%0.2
Tyler Conklin2413013%-0.8
Elijah Moore111103%2.5
Jeremy Ruckert11803%0.6
Michael Carter23109%-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams711.001
Tony Adams240.000
Ahmad Gardner330.000
D.J. Reed410.000
C.J. Mosley320.001
Quinnen Williams130.000
Michael Carter220.001
Kwon Alexander220.000
Jordan Whitehead210.001
Vinny Curry210.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Skylar Thompson20/31152001-7.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson16724.503.1
Raheem Mostert11716.501.2
Jaylen Waddle199.000.7
Salvon Ahmed177.00-0.5
Skylar Thompson331.00-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Gesicki4646022%-0.5
Jaylen Waddle5544019%3.2
Durham Smythe3539019%1.0
Tyreek Hill2523019%0.4
River Cracraft11504%-0.5
Erik Ezukanma11304%-1.0
Jeffery Wilson22207%-1.1
Raheem Mostert22-1007%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jevon Holland520.001
Christian Wilkins320.001
Raekwon Davis220.000
Elandon Roberts310.000
Jerome Baker210.000
Blake Ferguson110.000
Kader Kohou200.002
John Jenkins110.000
Xavien Howard200.003
Duke Riley110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Closing total
37.5
NYJ moneyline
+178
MIA moneyline
-200

Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 17 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
NYJ 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.