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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q2 4:08, 2nd and 7, on Desmond Ridder — 19.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Atlanta Falcons 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, Buccaneers +19.1% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:08 · 2nd and 7
Desmond Ridder
Buccaneers
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Olamide Zaccheaus's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:54 left in the 3rd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Olamide Zaccheaus3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Desmond RidderLead never changed again+717–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Falcons’s 67 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Falcons 4.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-2.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 54 snaps
Falcons-7.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.1 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 99%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers53.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 39 early downs
Falcons42.9%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 66%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers14.7%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons29.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers66.7%leaned — went for it · +24.6 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons50.0%leaned — went for it · +25.1 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 57%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers41.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons38.2%leaned — sent pressure · +14.9 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers17.6%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons14.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
TB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 42.0% and 1.2 times their own 21.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
19/30, 224 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.6 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
Passing · TB
13/17, 84 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.0 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kyle Rudolph banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | +2.5 | 57% | 71% | 29% | 44% | 6/8, 120 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | −4.8 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 224 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 9 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −0.8 | 62% | 71% | 25% | 22% | 4/7, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.5 | −4.0 | 69% | 65% | 0% | — | 24 car, 135 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +2.8 | 46% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 3/5, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell GageWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | +0.3 | 55% | 50% | 18% | 17% | 3/6, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Receiving Back | 9.9 | −0.6 | 28% | 41% | 11% | 0% | 5 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −0.6 | 47% | 41% | 21% | 21% | 6/7, 55 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −5.9 | 84% | 82% | 27% | 40% | 1 car, 17 yd · 4/9, 25 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +4.6 | 20% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 7.4 | +1.5 | 56% | — | 0% | — | 13/17, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 5.4 | −1.6 | 29% | 24% | 6% | 0% | 8 car, 26 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Blaine GabbertQB | 5.2 | +0.3 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 6/8, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Giovani BernardRB | 4.7 | −1.3 | 45% | 50% | 6% | 0% | 7 car, 28 yd · 2/2, -1 yd |
| Frank DarbyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.7 | 41% | 26% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | 24% | 38% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.8 | 58% | 68% | 6% | 21% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.3 | 38% | 47% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.6 | 66% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 1.5 | −0.4 | 18% | 15% | 0% | — | 4 car, 15 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.4 | 35% | 29% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB | 1.4 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 1.2 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.2 | 29% | 38% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle TraskQB | 0.9 | −1.0 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 3/9, 23 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 29% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh AliWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
Q2 4:08 · Falcons · 2nd & 7 at ATL 39 · lost 8 · -5.61 EP · −19.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 91 yards from the ATL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers6
Falcons0Buccaneers7Falcons0Buccaneers7Falcons6Buccaneers7Falcons7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Buccaneers7Falcons10Buccaneers10Falcons10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Buccaneers16Falcons10Buccaneers17Falcons10Buccaneers17Falcons13How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers17Falcons19Buccaneers17Falcons20Buccaneers17Falcons26Buccaneers17Falcons27Buccaneers17Falcons30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/17 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6/8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kyle Trask | 3/9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 21% | −0.9 |
| Deven Thompkins | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Delaney | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/30 | 224 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_TB_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 47 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| −5.9 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 18% | +0.4 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ifeadi Odenigbo | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Russell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat O'Connor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 24 | 135 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Avery Williams | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 120 | 0 | 29% | +9.8 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 25% | +2.6 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 18% | +2.1 |
| Frank Darby | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +3.4 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | −2.5 |
| Josh Ali | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Grant | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cornell Armstrong | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rashaan Evans | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Malone | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
