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2022 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

17

Atlanta FalconsWinner

30

ATL -6 ✓O 40.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, TB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑TB ↓
Q2 · 4:08TB 10 — ATL 10ATL ball · 2nd & 7ATL 73%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 4:08TB +19% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
  2. Q3 · 0:54ATL +12% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 1:50ATL +11% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 5:33ATL +10% win prob(5:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TB 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:51TB Touchdown

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 8-K.Rudolph for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — ATL 0
  2. Q1 · 3:31ATL Touchdown

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 64-R.Neuzil reported in as eligible. 4-D.Ridder pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — ATL 7
  3. Q1 · 0:59ATL Field goal

    (:59) 7-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 8:19TB Field goal

    (8:19) 3-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 10
  5. Q2 · 1:50TB Touchdown

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 10
  6. Q3 · 10:31ATL Field goal

    (10:31) 7-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 13
  7. Q3 · 0:54ATL Touchdown

    (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 20
  8. Q4 · 8:10ATL Touchdown

    (8:10) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 27
  9. Q4 · 4:05ATL Field goal

    (4:05) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersFalcons
Offensive plays5467
Total yards222382 (edge)
Yards per play4.15.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.170.05 (edge)
Success rate35%42% (edge)
Dropback rate63%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.13-0.05 (edge)
Third downs6/13 (edge)6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)29 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1321 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

19/30, 224 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

13/17, 84 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

24 att, 135 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Giovani BernardRB

7 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/8 for 120 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/7 for 55 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 3012705:13Touchdown +7
2ATLATL 255-101:30Punt
3TBTB 45440:55Punt
4ATLATL 910764:00Touchdown +7
5TBTB 25380:52Fumble
6ATLTB 34431:36Field goal +3
7TBTB 2515627:39Field goal +3
8ATLATL 20581:47Punt
9TBTB 19421:41Punt
10ATLATL 362-50:47Fumble
11TBATL 226272:14Touchdown +7
12ATLATL 25560:56Punt
13TBTB 202110:50End of half
14ATLATL 2510694:33Field goal +3
15TBTB 25591:38Punt
16ATLATL 2015807:58Touchdown +7
17TBTB 25521:40Punt
18ATLATL 1710916:04Touchdown +7
19TBTB 25540:57Punt
20ATLATL 2510523:10Field goal +3
21TBTB 258231:32Turnover on downs
22ATLTB 484122:28End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 91 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady13/17841003.0
Blaine Gabbert6/8291000.2
Kyle Trask3/923000-5.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Giovani Bernard7284.00-1.8
Ke'Shawn Vaughn8263.30-1.8
Deven Thompkins11717.001.3
Rachaad White4153.80-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin6755021%-0.9
Deven Thompkins4925027%-5.9
Russell Gage3615118%0.4
Breshad Perriman12906%0.6
Ke'Shawn Vaughn22806%-1.0
Kyle Rudolph11813%2.0
Scott Miller12806%-0.1
Cade Otton11503%1.1
Leonard Fournette11403%-0.1
Giovani Bernard22-106%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield730.000
Dee Delaney520.000
K.J. Britt250.000
Ifeadi Odenigbo140.000
J.J. Russell230.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting220.001
Pat O'Connor120.000
Anthony Nelson210.000
Rakeem Nunez-Roches120.000
Akiem Hicks211.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Desmond Ridder19/302242026.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier241355.60-1.1
Cordarrelle Patterson5183.611.7
Avery Williams4123.00-2.2
Desmond Ridder294.50-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London68120029%9.8
Olamide Zaccheaus4737125%2.6
MyCole Pruitt3534118%2.1
Frank Darby111504%1.3
Anthony Firkser111104%3.4
Parker Hesse11604%0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson231011%-2.5
Josh Ali01004%-0.5
Damiere Byrd11004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant330.000
Cornell Armstrong230.002
Jaleel Johnson320.000
Isaiah Oliver400.002
Rashaan Evans120.000
DeAngelo Malone210.000
Troy Andersen300.000
Grady Jarrett210.000
Lorenzo Carter210.000
Adetokunbo Ogundeji200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -6
Closing total
40.5
TB moneyline
+207
ATL moneyline
-235

Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 47 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.