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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 at Atlanta Falcons 30. Final.
Falcons -6 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 18
Atlanta Falcons 30, Buccaneers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:08, 2nd and 7, on Desmond Ridder — 19.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:08 · 2nd and 7
Desmond Ridder
Buccaneers
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
Dome
Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Atlanta Falcons 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:08, Buccaneers +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell GageBuccaneersQ2 1:50(1:50) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.2pts
Olamide ZaccheausFalconsQ3 0:54(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers153 of 162 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
Swing −19.1 for FalconsExpected points −5.61 for FalconsThe model had Buccaneers 11 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:08TB +19% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
3rd · 0:54ATL +12% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:50ATL +11% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:33ATL +10% win prob(5:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TB 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield).
1st · 2:47TB +8% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 33 for 6 yards (27-R.Grant). FUMBLES (27-R.Grant), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by ATL-27-R.Grant at TB 34.
4th · 12:20ATL +7% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass deep right to 5-D.London to TB 39 for 40 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Olamide Zaccheaus's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:54 left in the 3rd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:51Kyle Rudolph·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–0
4th4:05Younghoe Koo·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+317–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers2–6Falcons
222Total yards382
4.1Yards per play5.7
35%Success rate42%
46%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays9
13First downs21
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Buccaneers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.05Falcons: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Buccaneers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.15Falcons: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Buccaneers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Falcons’s 67 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons14.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 42.0% and 1.2 times their own 21.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ridder sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at ATL 31. 45-D.White to ATL 22 for 9 yards (25-T.Allgeier; 76-K.McGary).
Q2 4:08 · Falcons · 2nd & 7 at ATL 39 · lost 8 · -5.61 EP · −19.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 91 yards from the ATL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
37%
Yards
604
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1166%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3055%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.3056%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.7836%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0643%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.070%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Buccaneers6Falcons0
Buccaneers7Falcons0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Falcons 8
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 49
Buccaneers7Falcons6
Buccaneers7Falcons7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Buccaneers 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers7Falcons10
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
2nd quarter40 plays
Buccaneers10Falcons10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Falcons 14
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 28
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 39
Buccaneers16Falcons10
Buccaneers17Falcons10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 3
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 24
3rd quarter35 plays
Buccaneers17Falcons13
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.0 seconds
Buccaneers17Falcons19
Buccaneers17Falcons20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Buccaneers 3
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers17Falcons26
Buccaneers17Falcons27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Buccaneers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers17Falcons30
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 48
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
