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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 7, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 18
It turned at Q4 3:01, 3rd and 6, on Joshua Dobbs — 47.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:01 · 3rd and 6
Joshua Dobbs
Jaguars
(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 3:01, Jaguars +47.3% win probability on one snap.
47.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — -0.20 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.76 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Titans at 6 of 17 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Hines-Allen's 37-yard touchdown with 3:01 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Josh Hines-Allen37-yd defence TD37-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+716–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.76 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 72 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 45 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Jaguars 3.
Titans outgained Jaguars 312-226 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 34.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, is past their previous high of +7.0 pts in week 14 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.2% in week 17 against 37.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.4% in week 17 against 33.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 57.4% in week 17 against 32.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-18.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 72 snaps
Jaguars8.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.8 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 45 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 84%
Tendencies room →Titans32.7%leaned — ran early · −13.7 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 52 early downs
Jaguars67.6%leaned — passed early · +10.9 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans14.3%inside their normal wobble · −10.7 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars24.2%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -43% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Titans50.0%leaned — went for it · +29.2 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Titans33.3%leaned — sent pressure · +12.4 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars37.1%leaned — sent pressure · +16.5 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Titans12.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars34.3%leaned — got home · +17.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 17.5 points above their season mean of 16.8% and 2.0 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
20/32, 212 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.3 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
20/29, 179 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
3/4 for 42 yds, 1 TD
15% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Christian Kirk banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +6.8 | 96% | 97% | 28% | 44% | 6/8, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.8 | −1.6 | 75% | 49% | 4% | 0% | 30 car, 109 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 13.2 | +6.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −0.7 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 179 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 32 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 212 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, -3 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +2.1 | 85% | 91% | 19% | 20% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +3.3 | 45% | 54% | 15% | 16% | 4/4, 38 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +1.8 | 88% | 91% | 14% | 3% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −4.2 | 94% | 100% | 21% | 17% | 4/6, 21 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.9 | −3.8 | 75% | 91% | 26% | 28% | 4/7, 19 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 5.4 | −0.9 | 55% | 52% | 7% | 2% | 7 car, 17 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 4.9 | −5.7 | 55% | 67% | 21% | 35% | 2/6, 29 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 3.6 | +0.5 | 20% | 34% | 7% | 3% | 2 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 55% | 20% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jonathan WardRB | 1.2 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.5 | −2.4 | 49% | 48% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Racey McMathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −0.3 | 17% | 29% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 57% | 60% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:01 · Titans · 3rd & 6 at TEN 35 · gained nothing · -7.52 EP · −47.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 69 yards from the TEN 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans3
Jaguars0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Titans9Jaguars0Titans10Jaguars0Titans10Jaguars6Titans10Jaguars7Titans13Jaguars7Titans13Jaguars10Titans16Jaguars10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Titans16Jaguars13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Titans16Jaguars19Titans16Jaguars20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/29 | 179 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 30 | 109 | 3.6 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 15% | +4.7 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 19% | +5.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monty Rice | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/32 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_18_TEN_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 36 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 15% | +7.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 26% | −3.2 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Joseph Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kalu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
| 17 |
| 2.4 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 | 28% | +8.5 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 21% | −2.8 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 14% | +1.6 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 21% | −2.5 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +2.5 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darious Williams | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corey Peters | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
