2022 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 7, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -6 no coverU 39.5 ✓Jaguars closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 3:01, TEN +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:01TEN 16 — JAX 19TEN ball · 3rd & 6TEN 69%

(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:01TEN +47% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:30TEN +16% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 29, RECOVERED by TEN-99-R.Weaver at TEN 31.
Q4 · 1:37TEN +12% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 25-H.Haskins to JAX 44 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q3 · 0:53TEN +10% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at JAX 46. 32-T.Campbell to TEN 25 for 29 yards (62-C.Levin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:26TEN Field goal
(1:26) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — JAX 0
Q2 · 5:39TEN Touchdown
(5:39) 11-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-T.Walker]. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — JAX 0
Q2 · 2:43JAX Touchdown
(2:43) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — JAX 7
Q2 · 0:03TEN Field goal
(:03) 14-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — JAX 7
Q3 · 10:14JAX Field goal
(10:14) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — JAX 10
Q3 · 6:07TEN Field goal
(6:07) 14-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 16 — JAX 10
Q4 · 14:54JAX Field goal
(14:54) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: TEN 16 — JAX 13
Q4 · 3:01JAX Touchdown
(3:01) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 27 for -8 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins) [2-R.Jenkins], RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at TEN 37. 41-J.Allen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 16 — JAX 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	72	45
Total yards	312 (edge)	226
Yards per play	4.3	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	43% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	49%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20 (edge)	-0.76
Third downs	6/17	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Titans outgained Jaguars 312–226 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/32, 212 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.3 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Joshua DobbsQB

20/29, 179 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

30 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

-5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Joshua DobbsQB

5 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

6/8 for 99 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Chigoziem OkonkwoTE

3/4 for 42 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	6	1:31	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 20	4	9	2:07	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 16	17	66	9:59	Field goal +3
4	JAX	JAX 28	12	55	6:59	Fumble
5	TEN	TEN 31	8	69	3:52	Touchdown +7
6	JAX	50	8	50	2:56	Touchdown +7
7	TEN	TEN 29	12	55	2:36	Field goal +3
8	JAX	JAX 28	13	69	4:51	Field goal +3
9	TEN	TEN 32	11	34	4:07	Field goal +3
10	JAX	JAX 14	7	33	2:00	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 9	5	14	3:21	Interception
12	JAX	TEN 25	4	7	0:52	Field goal +3
13	TEN	TEN 26	5	-2	2:21	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 43	4	3	0:54	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 6	4	9	1:49	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 34	4	0	1:39	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 10	9	25	5:15	Defensive touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	8	36	1:21	Turnover on downs
19	JAX	JAX 44	2	0	1:30	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 69 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	20/29	179	1	1	4	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	30	109	3.6	-5.2
Joshua Dobbs	5	32	6.4	2.0
Racey McMath	1	4	4.0	-0.3
Hassan Haskins	2	3	1.5	-2.0
Jonathan Ward	1	-1	-1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chigoziem Okonkwo	3	4	42	1	15%	4.7
Robert Woods	4	5	40	0	19%	5.4
Austin Hooper	4	4	38	0	15%	7.1
Derrick Henry	1	1	19	0	4%	1.3
Treylon Burks	4	7	19	0	26%	-3.2
Hassan Haskins	2	2	13	0	7%	-0.5
Geoff Swaim	1	1	5	0	4%	0.3
Jonathan Ward	1	2	3	0	7%	-0.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Monty Rice	3	4	0.0
Kristian Fulton	4	1	0.0
Kevin Byard	3	2	0.0
Amani Hooker	4	0	0.0
Joseph Jones	1	2	0.0
Joshua Kalu	2	0	0.0
Teair Tart	2	0	1.0
Jack Gibbens	2	0	0.0
Dylan Cole	1	1	0.0
Andre Smith	1	1	0.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	20/32	212	1	0	1	4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	7	17	2.4	-1.9
Jamycal Hasty	3	5	1.7	-1.8
Trevor Lawrence	4	-3	-0.8	-5.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	8	99	1	28%	8.5
Marvin Jones	2	6	29	0	21%	-2.8
Evan Engram	4	4	27	0	14%	1.6
Zay Jones	4	6	21	0	21%	-2.5
Travis Etienne	2	2	17	0	7%	2.5
Luke Farrell	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Jamal Agnew	1	1	8	0	3%	0.8
Jamycal Hasty	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	5	1.0	0	1
Darious Williams	6	2	0.0	0	1
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	3	1.0	0	1
Corey Peters	3	3	0.0	0	0
Chad Muma	4	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	3	2	1.0	0	0
Davon Hamilton	2	3	0.0	0	0
Andre Cisco	1	4	0.0	0	1
Tyson Campbell	3	2	0.0	1	1
Travon Walker	2	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -6
Closing total: 39.5
TEN moneyline: +227
JAX moneyline: -260

Jaguars closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 36 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: TEN 9 days · JAX 6 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.