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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Wild Card
It turned at Q4 11:54, 3rd and 1, on Tyler Huntley — 46.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:54 · 3rd and 1
Tyler Huntley
Bengals
(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cincinnati Bengals 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 11:54, Bengals +46.6% win probability on one snap.
46.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Bengals at 1 chunk play.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bengals won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Ravens at 3 of 11 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sam Hubbard's 98-yard touchdown with 11:54 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ja'Marr Chase7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide right+60–9
Sam Hubbard98-yd defence TD98-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+717–247 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 66 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Bengals’s 54 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Bengals 2.
Ravens outgained Bengals 364-237 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-12.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 66 snaps
Bengals13.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 87%
Tendencies room →Ravens46.2%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 52 early downs
Bengals67.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens30.3%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals7.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Ravens50.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.5 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 54%
Tendencies room →Ravens23.1%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals39.4%leaned — sent pressure · +18.7 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.5%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bengals15.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
CIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 39.4%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.8 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
17/29, 226 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
3.4 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
23/32, 209 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.8 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Demarcus Robinson banked 7.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | +4.5 | 97% | 90% | 38% | 47% | 9/12, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 21.3 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 209 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 20.5 | +5.7 | 49% | 48% | 18% | 3% | 13 car, 62 yd · 4/5, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 18.4 | −8.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 226 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 54 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.9 | +7.4 | 46% | 55% | 11% | 20% | 2/3, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −3.3 | 90% | 91% | 36% | 52% | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/10, 73 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −1.4 | 90% | 85% | 19% | 28% | 4/6, 37 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.6 | −3.6 | 45% | 28% | 13% | 0% | 11 car, 39 yd · 3/4, 17 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −3.5 | 78% | 80% | 19% | 16% | 4/6, 45 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 6.2 | −5.5 | 30% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 12 car, 39 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +1.4 | 90% | 88% | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 26 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.9 | 70% | 52% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.0 | +0.3 | 14% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.9 | 68% | 61% | 11% | 7% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.3 | −2.3 | 53% | 60% | 3% | 2% | 2 car, 3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | −5.2 | 72% | 61% | 7% | 1% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:54 · Ravens · 3rd & goal at CIN 1 · lost 1 · -12.65 EP · −48.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 83 yards from the CIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens0
Bengals3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens0Bengals9Ravens6Bengals9Ravens7Bengals9How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
Ravens10Bengals9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens10Bengals15Ravens10Bengals17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens16Bengals17Ravens17Bengals17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Ravens17Bengals23Ravens17Bengals24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 17/29 | 226 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tyler Huntley | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 | −8.5 |
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 10 | 73 | 0 | 36% | −1.8 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 49 | 1 | 11% | +4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/32 | 209 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_19_BAL_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 18% | +4.4 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −0.0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyus Bowser | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 39 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 12 | 84 | 1 | 38% | +8.4 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 19% | −2.3 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 19% | +2.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9% | +2.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13% | −0.0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| B.J. Hill | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Sample | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Carter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
