2022 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -7.5 no coverO 40 ✓30°FBengals closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 11:54, BAL +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:54BAL 17 — CIN 23BAL ball · 3rd & 1BAL 57%

(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:54BAL +47% win prob(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:20CIN +16% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 10-D.Robinson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:47BAL +11% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to CIN 45 for 6 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at CIN 44. CIN-73-J.Williams was injured during the play.
Q4 · 13:13CIN +10% win prob(13:13) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left end pushed ob at CIN 2 for 35 yards (30-J.Bates).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:26CIN Field goal
(8:26) 2-E.McPherson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CIN 3
Q2 · 15:00CIN Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CIN 9
Q2 · 4:59BAL Touchdown
(4:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 27-J.Dobbins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 9
Q2 · 0:10BAL Field goal
(:10) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 9
Q3 · 5:05CIN Touchdown
(5:05) 9-J.Burrow left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-93-C.Campbell, Defensive Offside, declined. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 17
Q3 · 2:20BAL Touchdown
(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 10-D.Robinson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CIN 17
Q4 · 11:54CIN Touchdown
(11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CIN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	66	54
Total yards	364 (edge)	237
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	42%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens outgained Bengals 364–237 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

17/29, 226 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.4 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/32, 209 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

13 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-8.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

9/12 for 84 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/10 for 73 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	15	54	6:38	Field goal +3
2	BAL	BAL 29	6	25	2:19	Interception
3	CIN	CIN 40	11	60	6:07	Touchdown +6
4	BAL	BAL 25	19	72	10:03	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 30	7	14	2:15	Fumble
6	BAL	CIN 44	9	40	2:31	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:07	End of half
8	BAL	BAL 20	6	21	2:50	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 17	13	90	7:08	Touchdown +8
10	BAL	BAL 19	7	81	2:49	Touchdown +7
11	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:19	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 18	9	80	4:15	Defensive touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	5	1	1:41	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 25	7	-2	2:40	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 19	6	20	2:44	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 19	4	13	1:20	Punt
17	BAL	CIN 46	10	24	3:14	Turnover on downs

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	17/29	226	2	1	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	13	62	4.8	-0.8
Tyler Huntley	9	54	6.0	-8.5
Gus Edwards	12	39	3.3	1.3
Mark Andrews	1	0	0.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	5	10	73	0	36%	-1.8
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	49	1	11%	4.0
J.K. Dobbins	4	5	43	1	18%	4.4
Josh Oliver	2	2	26	0	7%	2.1
Gus Edwards	1	1	13	0	4%	1.4
Sammy Watkins	1	3	12	0	11%	-0.0
Justice Hill	2	2	10	0	7%	-0.1
Patrick Ricard	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Hamilton	5	4	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	3	5	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	6	0	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	3	2	0.0	0
Marcus Peters	2	2	0.0	1
Tyus Bowser	2	1	1.0	0
Broderick Washington	1	2	0.5	0
Chuck Clark	2	0	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	2	0	0.0	1
Odafe Oweh	2	0	1.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/32	209	1	0	4	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	39	3.5	0	-0.4
Joe Burrow	5	9	1.8	1	0.1
Samaje Perine	2	3	1.5	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	9	12	84	1	38%	8.4
Hayden Hurst	4	6	45	0	19%	-2.3
Tee Higgins	4	6	37	0	19%	2.2
Tyler Boyd	3	3	26	0	9%	2.5
Joe Mixon	3	4	17	0	13%	-0.0
Samaje Perine	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	5	4	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	8	1	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	3	0.0	0	1
Eli Apple	4	1	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	4	1	1.0	0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	4	0	0.0	1	1
Cam Sample	1	3	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	2	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Carter	3	1	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -7.5
Closing total: 40
BAL moneyline: +311
CIN moneyline: -370

Bengals closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 30°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.