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2022 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 15, 2023 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

31

Buffalo BillsWinner

34

BUF -14 no coverO 44 ✓27°F

Buffalo Bills 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:07, MIA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑MIA ↓
Q3 · 14:07MIA 23 — BUF 20BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 86%

(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 14:07MIA +18% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 8:51BUF +10% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 6 for 52 yards (25-X.Howard).
  3. Q3 · 11:23MIA +8% win prob(11:23) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
  4. Q4 · 4:13BUF +8% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at MIA 39 for 25 yards (31-D.Marlowe).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:02BUF Touchdown

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 7
  2. Q1 · 5:12BUF Touchdown

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 14
  3. Q2 · 12:49BUF Field goal

    (12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 17
  4. Q2 · 7:38MIA Field goal

    (7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — BUF 17
  5. Q2 · 2:20MIA Field goal

    (2:20) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — BUF 17
  6. Q2 · 1:19MIA Field goal

    (1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 9 — BUF 17
  7. Q2 · 0:37MIA Touchdown

    (:37) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — BUF 17
  8. Q2 · 0:07BUF Field goal

    (:07) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — BUF 20
  9. Q3 · 14:07MIA Touchdown

    (14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 24 — BUF 20
  10. Q3 · 5:22BUF Touchdown

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 24 — BUF 27
  11. Q3 · 2:12BUF Touchdown

    (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 24 — BUF 34
  12. Q4 · 10:55MIA Touchdown

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 31 — BUF 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsBills
Offensive plays7071
Total yards233425 (edge)
Yards per play3.36.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.21-0.15 (edge)
Success rate31%42% (edge)
Dropback rate74%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.240.03 (edge)
Third downs4/169/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)310 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1624 (edge)
Sacks taken4 (edge)7
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/39, 352 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-11.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Skylar ThompsonQB

18/45, 220 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -17.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

10 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

12 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/9 for 114 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

6/9 for 113 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 257383:04Turnover on downs
2MIAMIA 32420:59Punt
3BUFBUF 276733:00Touchdown +7
4MIAMIA 25320:37Interception
5BUFMIA 235182:13Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 258152:30Punt
7BUFBUF 3311574:51Field goal +3
8MIAMIA 4011385:12Field goal +3
9BUFBUF 254221:33Interception
10MIABUF 488233:46Field goal +3
11BUFBUF 28520:43Punt
12MIABUF 274130:17Field goal +3
13BUFBUF 254110:22Interception
14MIABUF 185200:20Touchdown +8
15BUFBUF 257540:29Field goal +3
16MIAMIA 25200:04End of half
17MIAMIA 25510:53Punt
18BUFBUF 301-170:08Defensive touchdown
19BUFBUF 248292:43Punt
20MIAMIA 20441:01Punt
21BUFBUF 324-21:29Punt
22MIAMIA 173-91:17Interception
23BUFMIA 336332:11Touchdown +7
24MIAMIA 246131:04Punt
25BUFBUF 326682:07Touchdown +7
26MIAMIA 2513676:14Touchdown +7
27BUFBUF 255-30:59Punt
28MIAMIA 33451:31Punt
29BUFBUF 107323:59Punt
30MIAMIA 147392:02Turnover on downs
31BUFMIA 434102:22End of game

11 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 73 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Skylar Thompson18/45220124-9.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson10232.31-3.0
Jaylen Waddle188.001.9
Tyreek Hill252.50-0.2
Skylar Thompson231.50-0.7
Salvon Ahmed530.60-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill71569036%-1.9
Salvon Ahmed3545012%3.1
Jaylen Waddle3744017%-1.4
Durham Smythe112002%1.4
Mike Gesicki2615114%-1.9
Cedrick Wilson111402%1.5
Jeffery Wilson1413010%1.2
Trent Sherfield02005%-3.1
Hunter Long01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaelan Phillips450.500
Jevon Holland710.012
Jerome Baker431.000
Eric Rowe421.000
Zach Sieler332.000
Xavien Howard300.012
Keion Crossen300.000
Christian Wilkins121.000
Kader Kohou200.002
Melvin Ingram110.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen23/39352327-11.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary10484.801.0
James Cook12393.31-2.4
Josh Allen4205.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs79114024%7.6
Gabe Davis69113124%5.1
Khalil Shakir3551014%0.6
Cole Beasley2535114%-3.7
Dawson Knox3520114%-0.7
Quintin Morris111203%0.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines12705%0.1
John Brown01003%-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Matt Milano422.000
Taron Johnson510.001
Carlos Basham231.000
Tremaine Edmunds410.004
Dane Jackson120.000
Dean Marlowe300.011
Jordan Poyer210.000
Ed Oliver211.000
Kaiir Elam200.012
Eli Ankou110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -14
Closing total
44
MIA moneyline
+649
BUF moneyline
-882

Bills closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 65 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
27°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
MIA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.