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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 15, 2023 · New Era Field
Final
DolphinsMiami31
BY 3final margin
BillsBuffalo34
Miami Dolphins 31 at Buffalo Bills 34. Final.
Bills -14 no coverO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Wild Card
Buffalo Bills 34, Dolphins 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 14:07, 1st and 10, on Josh Allen — 18.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:07 · 1st and 10
Josh Allen
Dolphins
(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
28°F
Bills closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:07, Dolphins +18.2% win probability on one snap.
18.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stefon DiggsBillsQ1 8:51(8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 6 for 52 yards (25-X.Howard).
10.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ3 11:23(11:23) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
8.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 16 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.24 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins189 of 203 plays carry both curves
(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.2 for BillsExpected points −8.83 for BillsThe model had Dolphins 18 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:07MIA +18% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:51BUF +10% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 6 for 52 yards (25-X.Howard).
3rd · 11:23MIA +8% win prob(11:23) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
4th · 4:13BUF +8% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at MIA 39 for 25 yards (31-D.Marlowe).
1st · 12:00MIA +7% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Beasley.
3rd · 2:55BUF +7% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to MIA 23 for 29 yards (28-K.Kohou).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cole Beasley's 6-yard touchdown catch with 5:22 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Dolphins: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.15Bills: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Dolphins: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.24Bills: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Dolphins: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Bills’s 71 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 26 pts
leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Bills21.2%
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.4 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen sacked−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 18 for -12 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), touched at BUF 13, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at BUF 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:07 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 30 · lost 17 · -8.83 EP · −28.3% win probability
188 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 203 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 203 snaps, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 75 yards from the MIA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
203 of 203 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
203
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0375%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0274%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2169%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.9555%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1943%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-1.8829%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
203 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
203 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Dolphins0Bills6
Dolphins0Bills7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Dolphins 6
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 27
Dolphins0Bills13
Dolphins0Bills14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 12
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Dolphins 37
2nd quarter63 plays
Dolphins0Bills17
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 13
Dolphins3Bills17
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Bills 15
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 47
Dolphins6Bills17
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 30
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 30
Dolphins9Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 36
Dolphins15Bills17
Dolphins17Bills17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 7
Dolphins17Bills20
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Dolphins23Bills20
Touchdown1 play
Dolphins24Bills20
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Dolphins 47
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 24
Punt4 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Dolphins24Bills26
Dolphins24Bills27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 6
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 37
Dolphins24Bills33
Dolphins24Bills34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Dolphins 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to midfield
4th quarter42 plays
Dolphins30Bills34
Dolphins31Bills34
Touchdown9 plays, from midfield to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 38
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 10 to midfield
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Dolphins 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins0
Bills6
