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2022 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 15, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York31
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota24
New York Giants 31 at Minnesota Vikings 24. Final.
Vikings -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Wild Card
New York Giants 31, Vikings 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:32, 4th and 2, on T.J. Hockenson — 15.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:32 · 4th and 2
T.J. Hockenson
Vikings
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).
O 48 ✓
Dome
Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 31–24. Biggest swing: Q3 0:32, Vikings +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darius SlaytonGiantsQ1 3:06(3:06) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at MIN 34 for 47 yards (24-C.Bynum).
9.0pts
Daniel JonesGiantsQ4 8:38(8:38) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
11.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 4 of 10 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Vikings at +0.17 expected points per snap.
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).
Swing +15.8 for VikingsExpected points +3.77 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:32MIN +16% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).
4th · 8:38MIN +11% win prob(8:38) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
1st · 3:06MIN +9% win prob(3:06) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at MIN 34 for 47 yards (24-C.Bynum).
1st · 5:19MIN +8% win prob(5:19) 26-S.Barkley left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00MIN +7% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 21 for 28 yards (20-J.Love, 30-D.Holmes) [36-T.Jefferson].
3rd · 9:44MIN +7% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 34 for 19 yards (21-L.Collins, 29-X.McKinney) [97-D.Lawrence].
4th · 11:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 7:52 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:38Greg Joseph·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+324–24
4th7:52Saquon Barkley·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+731–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryVikings
Giants5–2Vikings
434Total yards332
6.8Yards per play5.9
52%Success rate54%
58%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays4
26First downs19
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Giants: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.17Vikings: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Giants: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.25Vikings: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Giants: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Vikings’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Vikings 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, +15.3 pts, sat 21.1 points above their season number of −5.8 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.5 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Vikings9.1%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.3 pts, 21.1 points above their season mean of -5.8 pts and 2.5 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).
Q3 0:32 · Vikings · 4th & 2 at NYG 43 · gained 18 · +3.77 EP · +16.1% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 85 yards from the NYG 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
47%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2762%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0991%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.4550%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1033%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.5371%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.89100%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Giants0Vikings6
Giants0Vikings7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 1
Giants6Vikings7
Giants7Vikings7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 28
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants13Vikings7
Giants14Vikings7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Vikings 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 47
Giants17Vikings7
Field goal21 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Vikings 4
Giants17Vikings13
Giants17Vikings14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 21
3rd quarter35 plays
Giants23Vikings14
Giants24Vikings14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 9
Giants24Vikings20
Giants24Vikings21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 3
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Giants 43
4th quarter51 plays
Giants24Vikings24
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Giants30Vikings24
Giants31Vikings24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 2
Punt5 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 48
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
