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2022 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 14, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

23

San Francisco 49ersWinner

41

SF -10 ✓O 42 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 41–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:08, SF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑SEA ↓
Q2 · 5:08SEA 13 — SF 13SEA ball · 3rd & 3SF 87%

(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 5:08SF +14% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
  2. Q2 · 0:48SF +8% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at SEA 28 for 18 yards (8-C.Bryant). 14 YAC
  3. Q3 · 2:31SEA +6% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SF 26 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu), RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 30.
  4. Q3 · 7:19SF +6% win prob(7:19) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:16SF Field goal

    (10:16) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — SF 3
  2. Q1 · 5:17SF Touchdown

    (5:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 5 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — SF 10
  3. Q2 · 13:19SEA Touchdown

    (13:19) 9-K.Walker left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — SF 10
  4. Q2 · 7:45SF Field goal

    (7:45) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — SF 13
  5. Q2 · 5:08SEA Touchdown

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 14 — SF 13
  6. Q2 · 0:17SF Field goal

    (:17) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SEA 14 — SF 16
  7. Q2 · 0:01SEA Field goal

    (:01) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — SF 16
  8. Q3 · 7:19SF Touchdown

    (7:19) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — SF 23
  9. Q4 · 14:10SF Touchdown

    (14:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 25-E.Mitchell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 9 YAC (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — SF 31
  10. Q4 · 11:04SF Touchdown

    (11:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 66 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — SF 38
  11. Q4 · 4:59SF Field goal

    (4:59) 9-R.Gould 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — SF 41
  12. Q4 · 1:52SEA Touchdown

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC

    Score after this play: SEA 23 — SF 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawks49ers
Offensive plays6464
Total yards332508 (edge)
Yards per play5.27.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.070.40 (edge)
Success rate47%50% (edge)
Dropback rate66%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.73 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.04 (edge)
Third downs6/136/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)411 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2125 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

18/30, 332 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

22.5 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

25/35, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.8 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 119 yds, 0 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

15 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

10/13 for 136 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

6/9 for 133 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 205-22:25Punt
2SFSF 367482:22Field goal +3
3SEASEA 38572:11Punt
4SFSF 156852:51Touchdown +7
5SEASEA 2216786:57Touchdown +7
6SFSF 2511605:33Field goal +3
7SEASEA 297712:40Touchdown +7
8SFSF 25571:26Punt
9SEASEA 166132:27Punt
10SFSF 238490:55Field goal +3
11SEASEA 38390:13Field goal +3
12SFSF 2515757:45Touchdown +7
13SEASEA 2513554:50Fumble
14SFSF 308723:23Touchdown +8
15SEASEA 196282:17Punt
16SFSF 243760:54Touchdown +7
17SEASEA 25200:06Interception
18SFSEA 3710245:49Field goal +3
19SEASEA 2417733:08Touchdown +6
20SFSEA 474121:48End of game

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith25/352532132.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker15634.211.8
Geno Smith4287.001.3
DeeJay Dallas6132.20-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf1013136238%11.4
Tyler Lockett6839024%-1.2
Cade Johnson333909%4.2
Colby Parkinson3614018%-2.9
Dareke Young111103%0.7
Noah Fant121106%0.7
Kenneth Walker11303%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ryan Neal720.000
Cody Barton450.001
Quandre Diggs320.000
Michael Jackson230.001
Tanner Muse220.001
Uchenna Nwosu300.000
Tariq Woolen300.001
Bruce Irvin211.000
Alexander Johnson200.000
Shelby Harris200.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy18/3033230122.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey151197.904.7
Deebo Samuel33210.700.9
Brock Purdy4164.010.4
Jordan Mason2126.00-0.1
Elijah Mitchell920.20-5.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel69133133%9.2
Brandon Aiyuk3573019%3.3
Jauan Jennings2541019%2.1
George Kittle223707%4.5
Elijah Mitchell2325111%4.0
Christian McCaffrey221717%2.0
Kyle Juszczyk11604%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw830.000
Talanoa Hufanga320.000
Fred Warner410.000
Samuel Womack320.000
Nick Bosa320.000
Deommodore Lenoir310.011
Charles Omenihu302.000
Azeez Al-Shaair210.000
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles210.000
Charvarius Ward300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -10
Closing total
42
SEA moneyline
+367
SF moneyline
-447

49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 42; the game landed 64 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
SEA 6 days · SF 6 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.