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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 23 at San Francisco 49ers 41. Final.
49ers -10 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Wild Card
San Francisco 49ers 41, Seahawks 23 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 5:08, 3rd and 3, on DK Metcalf — 13.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:08 · 3rd and 3
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.
San Francisco 49ers 41–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:08, Seahawks +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Deebo Samuel49ersQ2 0:48(:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at SEA 28 for 18 yards (8-C.Bryant). 14 YAC
8.1pts
Geno Smith49ersQ3 2:31(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SF 26 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu), RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 30.
6.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.07 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
Swing −13.7 for 49ersExpected points −5.01 for 49ersThe model had Seahawks 15 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:08SF +14% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
2nd · 0:48SF +8% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at SEA 28 for 18 yards (8-C.Bryant). 14 YAC
3rd · 2:31SEA +6% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SF 26 for -7 yards (94-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (94-C.Omenihu), RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 30.
3rd · 7:19SF +6% win prob(7:19) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:06SF +6% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SF 25 for 13 yards (29-T.Hufanga). 2 YAC
2nd · 0:09SF +5% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right tackle to SEA 47 for 9 yards (1-J.Ward). PENALTY on SF-1-J.Ward, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 47.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brock Purdy's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:19 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:16Robbie Gould·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–3
4th4:59Robbie Gould·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+317–41
4th1:52DK Metcalf·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · two-point no good+623–41
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks0–949ers
332Total yards508
5.2Yards per play7.9
47%Success rate50%
46%Third-down rate55%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays11
21First downs25
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.4049ers: +0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.7349ers: +0.73 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Seahawks: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.0449ers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, 49ers 7.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 7.1%, sat 10.3 points below their season number of 17.4% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers7.1%
off script — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.9%, 27.0 points above their season mean of 19.9% and 3.7 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
Q2 5:08 · Seahawks · 3rd & 3 at 50 · gained 50 · +5.01 EP · +14.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 85 yards from the SF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
47%
Yards
839
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1776%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2861%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.6152%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1840%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.100%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 29
Seahawks049ers3
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Seahawks 16
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks049ers9
Seahawks049ers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended12 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the 49ers 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Seahawks649ers10
Seahawks749ers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 7
Seahawks749ers13
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Seahawks1349ers13
Seahawks1449ers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the 49ers 49
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 29
Seahawks1449ers16
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Seahawks 28
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks1749ers16
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the 49ers 38
3rd quarter36 plays
Seahawks1749ers22
Seahawks1749ers23
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 14
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Seahawks 39
4th quarter51 plays
Seahawks1749ers29
Seahawks1749ers31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 7
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 34
Seahawks1749ers37
Seahawks1749ers38
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 26
Intercepted2 plays
Seahawks1749ers41
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 12
Seahawks2349ers41
Touchdown19 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the 49ers 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Seahawks 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
