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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 14, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Wild Card
It turned at Q2 5:08, 3rd and 3, on DK Metcalf — 13.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 41–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:08, Seahawks +13.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:08 · 3rd and 3
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.73 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.07 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brock Purdy's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:19 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, 49ers 7.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's play-action rate, 46.9%, sat 27.0 points above their season number of 19.9% — they faked the run by 3.7 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +3.7σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate, 7.1%, sat 10.3 points below their season number of 17.4% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.2 ptsright on their number · −3.2 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 63 snaps
49ers-5.3 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 89%
Tendencies room →Seahawks61.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 49 early downs
49ers48.1%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Seahawks14.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.3 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers46.9%off script — faked the run · +27.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+3.73× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 49%
Tendencies room →Seahawks6.3%leaned — sat back · −13.1 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
49ers12.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Seahawks9.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers7.1%off script — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
SF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.9%, 27.0 points above their season mean of 19.9% and 3.7 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
18/30, 332 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
22.5 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
25/35, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.8 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DK Metcalf banked 14.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.6 | +14.3 | 84% | 88% | 38% | 55% | 10/13, 136 yd, 2 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 34.9 | +11.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 332 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.5 | +12.8 | 77% | 91% | 33% | 27% | 3 car, 32 yd · 6/9, 133 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 21.6 | +5.0 | 74% | 88% | 7% | 1% | 15 car, 119 yd · 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/35, 253 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 28 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | +4.7 | 71% | 64% | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | −3.4 | 22% | 12% | 11% | 0% | 9 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −0.1 | 89% | 97% | 19% | 35% | 3/5, 73 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | −1.1 | 79% | 88% | 24% | 17% | 6/8, 39 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +3.2 | 88% | 94% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 37 yd |
| Cade JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +2.8 | 65% | 79% | 9% | 10% | 3/3, 39 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −3.3 | 40% | 48% | 19% | 28% | 2/5, 41 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −5.1 | 66% | 60% | 18% | 11% | 3/6, 14 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.7 | 56% | 55% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 19% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.6 | +0.1 | 51% | 39% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 1.3 | −1.7 | 34% | 38% | 0% | — | 6 car, 13 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 1.2 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Danny GrayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 14 YAC
Q2 5:08 · Seahawks · 3rd & 3 at 50 · gained 50 · +5.01 EP · +14.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 85 yards from the SF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
49ers3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Seahawks049ers9Seahawks049ers10Seahawks649ers10Seahawks749ers10Seahawks749ers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks1349ers13Seahawks1449ers13Seahawks1449ers16How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Seahawks1749ers16Seahawks1749ers22Seahawks1749ers23How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Seahawks1749ers29Seahawks1749ers31Seahawks1749ers37Seahawks1749ers38Seahawks1749ers41Seahawks2349ers41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/35 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| DeeJay Dallas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 10 | 13 | 136 | 2 | 38% | +11.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Neal | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/30 | 332 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +22.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_19_SEA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 42; the game landed 64 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 13 |
| 2.2 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| −1.2 |
| Cade Johnson | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 9% | +4.2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 18% | −2.9 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Muse | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tariq Woolen | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bruce Irvin | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 119 | 7.9 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 9 | 133 | 1 | 33% | +9.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 19% | +3.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 19% | +2.1 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 7% | +4.5 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 11% | +4.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
