2022 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 22, 2023 · New Era Field

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -6 upsetU 48.5 ✓32°FBills closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:48, BUF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:48CIN 6 — BUF 0CIN ball · 2nd & 3BUF 66%

(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:48BUF +13% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:24BUF +9% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-H.Hurst to BUF 36 for 18 yards (31-D.Marlowe).
Q1 · 3:51BUF +8% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:32BUF +8% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at CIN 4 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates) [92-B.Hill].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:48CIN Touchdown
(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — BUF 0
Q1 · 3:51CIN Touchdown
(3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 14 — BUF 0
Q2 · 7:29BUF Touchdown
(7:29) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 14 — BUF 7
Q2 · 1:52CIN Field goal
(1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — BUF 7
Q3 · 7:45BUF Field goal
(7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — BUF 10
Q3 · 1:18CIN Touchdown
(1:18) 28-J.Mixon left guard to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson, 58-M.Milano). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — BUF 10
Q4 · 11:25CIN Field goal
(11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: CIN 27 — BUF 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Bills
Offensive plays	68	62
Total yards	413 (edge)	325
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	54% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	56%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	6/10 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

25/42, 264 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/36, 242 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.0 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

20 att, 105 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

7 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

5/7 for 65 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

5/8 for 61 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 21	8	79	3:20	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 24	5	6	1:38	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 28	11	67	6:15	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 25	5	5	1:36	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 33	7	14	2:05	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 25	16	85	7:41	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 25	15	70	5:36	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 20	9	39	1:09	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 9	6	44	0:40	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 28	15	65	7:18	Field goal +3
11	CIN	CIN 25	14	71	6:25	Touchdown +7
12	BUF	BUF 12	5	8	1:15	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 37	9	35	3:40	Field goal +3
14	BUF	BUF 25	11	64	3:59	Fumble
15	CIN	CIN 16	9	33	4:51	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 10	8	53	1:30	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 2	2	0	1:02	End of game

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/36	242	2	0	1	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	20	105	5.3	1	3.0
Samaje Perine	7	33	4.7	0	-0.2
Joe Burrow	6	31	5.2	0	0.5
Ja'Marr Chase	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	61	1	25%	4.2
Hayden Hurst	5	6	59	1	19%	7.1
Samaje Perine	5	5	31	0	16%	0.1
Tee Higgins	3	4	28	0	13%	1.0
Tyler Boyd	1	2	23	0	6%	1.0
Joe Mixon	2	3	18	0	9%	0.4
Trenton Irwin	1	2	13	0	6%	1.6
Mitchell Wilcox	1	2	9	0	6%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	4	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	5	2	0.0	0	1
Cam Taylor-Britt	6	0	0.0	1	2
Eli Apple	5	1	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	4	1	1.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	5	0	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	0	3	0.0	0	2
Germaine Pratt	3	0	0.0	0	2
D.J. Reader	1	1	0.0	0	0
Samaje Perine	1	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	25/42	264	0	1	1	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	8	26	3.3	1	3.5
Devin Singletary	6	25	4.2	0	0.5
James Cook	5	13	2.6	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dawson Knox	5	7	65	18%	2.5
Khalil Shakir	2	2	40	5%	3.7
Devin Singletary	5	8	37	20%	-1.9
Stefon Diggs	4	10	35	25%	-1.9
Gabe Davis	2	4	34	10%	-2.3
Cole Beasley	3	4	33	10%	0.6
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	10	5%	0.0
Quintin Morris	1	2	6	5%	-0.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	1	4	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	8	2	0.0	1
Matt Milano	4	3	1.0	1
Jordan Poyer	3	3	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	3	0.0	1
Jaquan Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
Kaiir Elam	3	1	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	0
Dean Marlowe	2	1	0.0	0
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0
Tim Settle	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6
Closing total: 48.5
CIN moneyline: +226
BUF moneyline: -259

Bills closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 37 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CIN 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Sean McDermott