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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Bengals166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.6 for BillsExpected points −2.98 for BillsThe model had Bengals 19 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:48BUF +13% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:24BUF +9% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-H.Hurst to BUF 36 for 18 yards (31-D.Marlowe).
1st · 3:51BUF +8% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:32BUF +8% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at CIN 4 for 23 yards (30-J.Bates) [92-B.Hill].
2nd · 15:00BUF +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 38 for 16 yards (30-J.Bates).
2nd · 1:16BUF +7% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 34 for 9 yards (24-V.Bell).
2nd · 0:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 28-yard touchdown catch with 11:48 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:48Ja'Marr Chase·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–0
1st3:51Hayden Hurst·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–0
4th11:25Evan McPherson·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+327–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBills
Bengals8–0Bills
413Total yards325
6.1Yards per play5.2
54%Success rate45%
60%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays3
27First downs19
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Bengals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Bengals: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.01Bills: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Bengals: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.04Bills: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.16Bills: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Bills’s 62 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Bills 3.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bills7.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.2%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 60.6% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Max ScharpingG · Every snap100%75 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%75 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Every snap100%75 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time91%68 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation76%57 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation71%53 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation56%42 snaps
88Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational45%34 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational44%33 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational25%19 snaps
86Devin AsiasiTE · Situational19%14 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational9%7 snaps
70D'Ante SmithG · Situational9%7 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational3%2 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre FlowersCBJeff GunterDEJay TufeleDTAlex CappaGChris EvansRBJonah WilliamsTNick BowersTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brandon AllenQBIsaiah PrinceT
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Ryan BatesC · Every snap100%63 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%63 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%63 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time98%62 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational48%30 snaps
28James CookRB · Rotational33%21 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational27%17 snaps
20Nyheim HinesRB · Situational6%4 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Christian BenfordCBDaQuan JonesDTJared MaydenFSIke BoettgerGBaylon SpectorOLBTerrel BernardOLBTommy SweeneyTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:48 · Bengals · 2nd & 3 at BUF 28 · gained 28 · +2.98 EP · +7.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 79 yards from the CIN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
737
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0272%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.2660%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.510%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.130%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Bengals6Bills0
Bengals7Bills0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bills 28
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 30
Bengals13Bills0
Bengals14Bills0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bills 13
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 30
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals14Bills6
Bengals14Bills7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bengals 1
Bengals17Bills7
Field goal17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bills 5
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bengals 41
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bills 47
3rd quarter40 plays
Bengals17Bills10
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bengals 7
Bengals23Bills10
Bengals24Bills10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 20
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Bengals27Bills10
Field goal9 plays, from midfield to the Bills 2
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bengals 16
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 49
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bengals 37
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
