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2022 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 22, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

12

San Francisco 49ersWinner

19

SF -3.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓19 mph wind

San Francisco 49ers 19–12. Biggest swing: Q3 11:51, SF +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑DAL ↓
Q3 · 11:51DAL 6 — SF 9DAL ball · 4th & 5SF 69%

(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 11:51SF +16% win prob(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.
  2. Q2 · 1:24DAL +15% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner (1-J.Ward) at SF 12. 54-F.Warner to SF 28 for 16 yards (88-C.Lamb).
  3. Q1 · 5:55DAL +13% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 38-D.Lenoir at DAL 27. 38-D.Lenoir pushed ob at DAL 21 for 6 yards (21-E.Elliott).
  4. Q2 · 9:30SF +11% win prob(9:30) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 3 YAC

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:16SF Field goal

    (2:16) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — SF 3
  2. Q2 · 9:30DAL Touchdown

    (9:30) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 3 YAC

    Score after this play: DAL 6 — SF 3
  3. Q2 · 3:48SF Field goal

    (3:48) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DAL 6 — SF 6
  4. Q2 · 0:01SF Field goal

    (:01) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DAL 6 — SF 9
  5. Q3 · 9:11DAL Field goal

    (9:11) 19-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 9 — SF 9
  6. Q4 · 15:00SF Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 9 — SF 16
  7. Q4 · 11:08DAL Field goal

    (11:08) 19-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 12 — SF 16
  8. Q4 · 3:08SF Field goal

    (3:08) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DAL 12 — SF 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboys49ers
Offensive plays6063
Total yards282312 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.090.01 (edge)
Success rate40%44% (edge)
Dropback rate67%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.080.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11-0.07 (edge)
Third downs5/157/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1418 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers20 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/29, 214 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

23/37, 206 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

14 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

10 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

10/13 for 117 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

5/5 for 95 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 25531:59Punt
2DALDAL 266242:50Punt
3SFSF 188443:10Punt
4DALDAL 20311:12Interception
5SFDAL 217133:37Field goal +3
6DALDAL 2616797:47Touchdown +6
7SFSF 2511415:42Field goal +3
8DALDAL 358322:28Interception
9SFSF 288401:15Field goal +3
10DALDAL 258233:19Punt
11DALSF 216142:33Field goal +3
12SFDAL 47511:51Punt
13DALDAL 95511:19Punt
14SFSF 911766:00Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 439323:55Field goal +3
16SFSF 2514647:59Field goal +3
17DALDAL 18500:59Punt
18SFSF 267301:20Punt
19DALDAL 66260:45End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 79 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott23/37206121-6.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ezekiel Elliott10262.60-1.8
Dak Prescott4225.503.0
Tony Pollard6223.70-1.7
CeeDee Lamb263.001.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb1013117035%-0.5
Dalton Schultz51027127%-1.6
Noah Brown222105%1.7
T.Y. Hilton111503%2.1
Tony Pollard231108%-0.5
Kavontae Turpin11803%-0.0
Ezekiel Elliott247011%-2.3
Michael Gallup03008%-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Leighton Vander Esch380.000
Daron Bland540.001
Malik Hooker250.000
Donovan Wilson230.000
Osa Odighizuwa231.000
Anthony Barr230.001
Demarcus Lawrence321.000
Micah Parsons130.001
Trevon Diggs120.000
Johnathan Hankins210.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy19/292140023.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Elijah Mitchell14513.60-1.8
Christian McCaffrey10353.510.6
Deebo Samuel4112.80-0.8
Brock Purdy382.70-1.9
Kyle Juszczyk188.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle5595019%5.0
Deebo Samuel4745027%-0.2
Brandon Aiyuk2426015%2.1
Jauan Jennings222608%3.2
Christian McCaffrey6822031%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner720.011
Jimmie Ward610.002
Charvarius Ward410.001
Dre Greenlaw320.001
Azeez Al-Shaair230.000
Deommodore Lenoir410.011
Talanoa Hufanga230.000
Arik Armstead120.000
Nick Bosa200.000
Tashaun Gipson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3.5
Closing total
46.5
DAL moneyline
+164
SF moneyline
-183

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 31 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
55°F, wind 19 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
DAL 6 days · SF 8 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Kyle Shanahan

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.