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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 22, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Divisional Round
It turned at Q3 11:51, 4th and 5 — 16.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:51 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Cowboys
(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.
San Francisco 49ers 19–12. Biggest swing: Q3 11:51, Cowboys +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 15 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Dalton Schultz4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · kick blocked by S.Ebukam+66–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 60 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against 49ers’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, 49ers 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-0.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.2 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 60 snaps
49ers-4.0 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 80%
Tendencies room →Cowboys60.5%leaned — passed early · +11.3 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 43 early downs
49ers40.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 54%
Tendencies room →Cowboys20.0%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
49ers24.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys66.7%leaned — went for it · +37.4 vs their 29.3%, and they swing ±27.5 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Cowboys18.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers17.5%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers10.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 7.4 points below their season mean of 17.4% and 1.5 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/29, 214 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.6 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
23/37, 206 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.3 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
George Kittle banked 6.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.3 | +0.5 | 90% | 93% | 35% | 38% | 2 car, 6 yd · 10/13, 117 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 17.7 | −1.7 | 67% | 79% | 31% | 11% | 10 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 6/8, 22 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 14.5 | +6.4 | 94% | 94% | 19% | 27% | 5/5, 95 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −2.7 | 98% | 93% | 27% | 26% | 5/10, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 206 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 22 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.6 | −3.9 | 95% | 94% | 27% | 17% | 4 car, 11 yd · 4/7, 45 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 9.4 | −6.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 214 yd · 3 car, 8 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −5.5 | 70% | 70% | 11% | 0% | 10 car, 26 yd · 2/4, 7 yd |
| Tony PollardRB | 5.3 | −1.8 | 31% | 25% | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 22 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 5.1 | −1.7 | 33% | 15% | 0% | — | 14 car, 51 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −3.6 | 95% | 94% | 15% | 27% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.8 | 45% | 55% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.4 | 30% | 28% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.0 | 44% | 57% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.8 | −0.2 | 52% | 33% | 0% | — | 1 car, 8 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 80% | 90% | 8% | 26% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:51) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 16 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (1-K.Joseph), touched at SF 17, RECOVERED by DAL-33-D.Clark at SF 21.
Q3 11:51 · Cowboys · 4th & 5 at DAL 48 · gained nothing · +4.91 EP · +18.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 86 yards from the SF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cowboys0
49ers3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys649ers3Cowboys649ers6How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cowboys649ers9Cowboys949ers9Cowboys949ers15Cowboys949ers16Cowboys1249ers16Cowboys1249ers19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/37 | 206 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 13 | 117 | 0 | 35% | −0.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 27% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leighton Vander Esch | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Hooker | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_20_DAL_SF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 31 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11% | −2.3 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −4.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Barr | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Diggs | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Hankins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 51 |
| 3.6 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 19% | +5.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 27% | −0.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 15% | +2.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +3.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 31% | −1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
