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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 21, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Divisional Round
It turned at Q1 14:22, 2nd and 8, on DeVonta Smith — 8.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 38–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:22, Eagles +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:22 · 2nd and 8
DeVonta Smith
Eagles
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Giants at 2 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 13 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dallas Goedert's 16-yard touchdown catch with 10:13 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Dallas Goedert16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 35.2%, sat 20.0 points below their season number of 55.2% — they ran early by 2.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-1.9 ptsright on their number · +3.8 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 52 snaps
Eagles-15.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.7 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.80× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 85%
Tendencies room →Giants58.3%right on their number · +6.4 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 36 early downs
Eagles35.2%off script — ran early · −20.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−2.53× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 57%
Tendencies room →Giants5.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −19.0 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles34.6%leaned — faked the run · +16.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.3%.
Eagles—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 70%
Tendencies room →Giants38.5%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Eagles20.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Giants3.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Eagles22.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
PHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.2%, 20.0 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
16/24, 154 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.9 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
15/27, 135 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-14.5 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenneth Gainwell banked 8.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 23.6 | +1.1 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 16/24, 154 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 19.1 | +8.1 | 37% | 46% | 8% | 0% | 12 car, 112 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 9 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | +0.4 | 96% | 100% | 42% | 48% | 6/10, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 16.8 | +6.1 | 96% | 100% | 21% | 17% | 5/5, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Richie JamesWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | −1.4 | 75% | 89% | 38% | 32% | 7/10, 51 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 11.2 | +7.0 | 40% | 43% | 4% | 9% | 4 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 10.2 | +1.7 | 65% | 60% | 12% | 0% | 9 car, 61 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 9.2 | +4.2 | 23% | 23% | 0% | — | 6 car, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −2.0 | 40% | 31% | 0% | — | 17 car, 90 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 5.8 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 135 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 24 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −4.9 | 73% | 88% | 25% | 44% | 3/6, 22 yd |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.7 | 29% | 23% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.1 | 83% | 77% | 12% | 5% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 1.4 | −6.0 | 96% | 94% | 19% | 29% | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 34% | 38% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.6 | 87% | 91% | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 1.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
Q1 14:22 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at PHI 27 · gained 40 · +3.08 EP · +10.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 88 yards from the NYG 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Giants0
Eagles6Giants0Eagles7Giants0Eagles13Giants0Eagles14Giants0Eagles20Giants0Eagles21Giants0Eagles27Giants0Eagles28Giants6Eagles28Giants7Eagles28Giants7Eagles31Giants7Eagles37Giants7Eagles38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/27 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 5 | −14.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Matt Breida |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 7 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 38% | +1.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylon Smith | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/24 | 154 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_20_NYG_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -8 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 23 |
| 5.8 |
| 1 |
| +1.7 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +0.6 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +3.0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19% | −7.9 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12% | −1.1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −2.7 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrad Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Gates | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 12 | 112 | 9.3 | 1 | +11.2 |
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 42% | −0.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 21% | +5.8 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 25% | −0.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +2.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slay | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fletcher Cox | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Von Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
