For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
Swing +8.6 for EaglesExpected points +3.08 for EaglesThe model had Giants 20 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:22PHI +9% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
1st · 5:46NYG +7% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at PHI 48 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick).
1st · 10:13PHI +6% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:02NYG +3% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith to NYG 26 for -2 yards (22-A.Jackson).
1st · 8:54PHI +3% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-R.James to NYG 42 for 12 yards (2-D.Slay; 22-M.Epps).
1st · 0:34NYG +3% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at PHI 46. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 46 for 8 yards (65-N.Gates).
1st · 1:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 16-yard touchdown catch with 10:13 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Giants: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.34Eagles: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Giants: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.23Eagles: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Giants: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.40Eagles: +0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Eagles 6.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 35.2%, sat 20.0 points below their season number of 55.2% — they ran early by 2.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Eagles22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.2%, 20.0 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to NYG 33 for 40 yards (20-J.Love).
Q1 14:22 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at PHI 27 · gained 40 · +3.08 EP · +10.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 88 yards from the NYG 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
643
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3975%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.4045%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.3930%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.1225%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6233%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.140%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Giants0Eagles6
Giants0Eagles7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 16
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Eagles 35
Giants0Eagles13
Giants0Eagles14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Giants 6
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Eagles 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 18
Giants0Eagles20
Giants0Eagles21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Giants 3
Punt5 plays
Giants0Eagles27
Giants0Eagles28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 35
Giants6Eagles28
Giants7Eagles28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Eagles 8
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 16
4th quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 47
Giants7Eagles31
Field goal19 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Giants 12
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 36
Giants7Eagles37
Giants7Eagles38
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Giants 30
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
