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2022 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 29, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati20
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City23
Cincinnati Bengals 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 23. Final.
Chiefs -2 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Bengals 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:03, 3rd and 16, on Hayden Hurst — 25.7 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:03 · 3rd and 16
Hayden Hurst
Bengals
(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
U 48.5 ✓
23°F
Chiefs closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, Bengals +25.7% win probability on one snap.
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowChiefsQ4 1:27(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on CIN-9-J.Burrow, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.
20.5pts
Patrick MahomesChiefsQ4 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at CIN 42 for 5 yards (58-J.Ossai). PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 42.
16.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bengals166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
Swing −25.7 for ChiefsExpected points −1.18 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:03KC +26% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
4th · 1:27CIN +20% win prob(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on CIN-9-J.Burrow, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.
4th · 0:17KC +17% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at CIN 42 for 5 yards (58-J.Ossai). PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 42.
4th · 15:00KC +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to KC 6 for 35 yards (6-B.Cook).
4th · 0:44CIN +14% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 28 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones).
3rd · 4:21KC +13% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 45-yard field goal with 0:08 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:54Harrison Butker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–3
2nd15:00Harrison Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–6
2nd8:40Evan McPherson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+33–6
2nd3:59Travis Kelce·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–13
2nd0:04Evan McPherson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+36–13
3rd9:59Tee Higgins·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+713–13
3rd4:21Marquez Valdes-Scantling·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+713–20
4th0:08Harrison Butker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChiefs
Bengals2–7Chiefs
309Total yards357
4.9Yards per play5.4
43%Success rate39%
43%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays3
17First downs20
5Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Bengals: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.16Chiefs: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Bengals: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.29Chiefs: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 63 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 66 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Chiefs 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs22.4%
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.1%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 61.9% and 1.7 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
Q4 1:03 · Bengals · 3rd & 16 at CIN 10 · gained 23 · +1.18 EP · +18.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.0572%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2770%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1968%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.4370%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 37
Bengals0Chiefs3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Bengals 25
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 41
The period ended14 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Bengals 9
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals0Chiefs6
Field goal1 play
Bengals3Chiefs6
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 12
Bengals3Chiefs12
Bengals3Chiefs13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bengals 14
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
Punt4 plays
Bengals6Chiefs13
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 5 to the Chiefs 5
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bengals12Chiefs13
Bengals13Chiefs13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Chiefs 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bengals13Chiefs19
Bengals13Chiefs20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Bengals 17
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the sack was on the quarterback, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Bengals 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 40
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bengals19Chiefs20
Bengals20Chiefs20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Chiefs 2
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 40
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 36
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Bengals 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 6 to the Bengals 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals20Chiefs23
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Bengals 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -2
Closing total
48.5
Bengals moneyline
+119
Chiefs moneyline
-131
Chiefs closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 23°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Andy Reid
4th · 7:02
CIN +12% win prob
(7:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Williams (6-B.Cook) at KC 18. 23-J.Williams to KC 14 for -4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
3rd · 9:59KC +12% win prob(9:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
