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2022 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 29, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

20

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

23

KC -2 ✓U 48.5 ✓22°F

Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, KC +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑CIN ↓
Q4 · 1:03CIN 20 — KC 20CIN ball · 3rd & 16KC 62%

(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:03KC +26% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
  2. Q4 · 1:27CIN +20% win prob(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on CIN-9-J.Burrow, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.
  3. Q4 · 0:17KC +17% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at CIN 42 for 5 yards (58-J.Ossai). PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 42.
  4. Q4 · 15:00KC +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to KC 6 for 35 yards (6-B.Cook).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:54KC Field goal

    (8:54) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — KC 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00KC Field goal

    (15:00) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — KC 6
  3. Q2 · 8:40CIN Field goal

    (8:40) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

    Score after this play: CIN 3 — KC 6
  4. Q2 · 3:59KC Touchdown

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 3 — KC 13
  5. Q2 · 0:04CIN Field goal

    (:04) 2-E.McPherson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

    Score after this play: CIN 6 — KC 13
  6. Q3 · 9:59CIN Touchdown

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 13 — KC 13
  7. Q3 · 4:21KC Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 13 — KC 20
  8. Q4 · 13:35CIN Touchdown

    (13:35) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 20 — KC 20
  9. Q4 · 0:08KC Field goal

    (:08) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 20 — KC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsChiefs
Offensive plays6366
Total yards309357 (edge)
Yards per play4.95.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.020.05 (edge)
Success rate43% (edge)39%
Dropback rate78%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.29
Third downs6/147/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1720 (edge)
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/43, 326 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

26/41, 270 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

10 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

5 att, 22 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

6/8 for 116 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/11 for 83 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 19792:49Punt
2KCKC 367393:21Field goal +3
3CINCIN 385-92:34Punt
4KCKC 3312706:18Field goal +3
5CINCIN 2514636:22Field goal +3
6KCKC 2510754:43Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 25481:31Interception
8KCCIN 39400:19Punt
9CINCIN 512702:03Field goal +3
10KCKC 21521:31Punt
11CINCIN 389623:35Touchdown +7
12KCKC 2313775:39Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 25531:22Punt
14KCKC 316291:58Fumble
15CINKC 457452:25Touchdown +7
16KCKC 2210134:12Punt
17CINCIN 185272:25Interception
18KCKC 148414:23Punt
19CINCIN 68312:00Punt
20KCKC 474110:27Field goal +3
21CIN—100:03End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 77 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow26/41270125-1.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Burrow4307.503.5
Samaje Perine5224.411.4
Joe Mixon8192.40-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins61183130%0.5
Ja'Marr Chase6875022%6.2
Tyler Boyd224005%4.5
Hayden Hurst4537014%0.1
Joe Mixon331508%0.3
Mitchell Wilcox121005%-0.1
Trenton Irwin12605%-0.2
Samaje Perine344011%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt250.000
Vonn Bell520.000
Logan Wilson510.000
Eli Apple510.000
Jessie Bates330.000
Joseph Ossai320.001
Mike Hilton410.000
D.J. Reader130.000
Cam Taylor-Britt120.001
Josh Tupou120.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes29/433262037.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco10262.60-2.8
Patrick Mahomes382.700.5
Mecole Hardman273.500.9
Jerick McKinnon410.30-2.4
Ronald Jones100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling68116120%8.2
Travis Kelce7878120%7.7
Isiah Pacheco5659015%3.6
Jerick McKinnon2417010%-1.6
Skyy Moore3713017%-2.6
Marcus Kemp111302%1.2
Mecole Hardman231007%-0.2
Kadarius Toney12905%-0.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster11702%0.8
Noah Gray11402%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Justin Reid700.001
Michael Danna320.000
Joshua Williams410.011
Nick Bolton130.000
Trent McDuffie400.002
Bryan Cook400.001
Jaylen Watson400.012
Chris Jones312.000
Khalen Saunders300.000
Juan Thornhill210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -2
Closing total
48.5
CIN moneyline
+119
KC moneyline
-131

Chiefs closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
22°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
CIN 7 days · KC 8 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Andy Reid