2022 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 29, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -2.5 ✓U 45 ✓Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Philadelphia Eagles 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:19, SF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:19SF 7 — PHI 14SF ball · 1st & 10PHI 70%

(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:19SF +13% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
Q1 · 10:28PHI +11% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].
Q1 · 7:03SF +11% win prob(7:03) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk (7-H.Reddick). Philadelphia challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 40 for -10 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by PHI-72-L.Joseph at PHI 44. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q2 · 8:37PHI +7% win prob(8:37) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:51PHI Touchdown
(9:51) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — PHI 7
Q2 · 8:37SF Touchdown
(8:37) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 7
Q2 · 1:40PHI Touchdown
(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 14
Q2 · 0:21PHI Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 21
Q3 · 0:48PHI Touchdown
(:48) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 28
Q4 · 5:20PHI Field goal
(5:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Score after this play: SF 7 — PHI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Eagles
Offensive plays	45	68
Total yards	164	271 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.46	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	33%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	2/8	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

15/25, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Josh JohnsonQB

7/13, 74 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Kenneth GainwellRB

14 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

2/3 for 36 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

3/6 for 33 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 34	13	66	5:12	Touchdown +7
2	SF	SF 25	7	25	2:52	Fumble
3	PHI	PHI 44	4	6	2:06	Punt
4	SF	SF 20	4	11	2:32	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 15	5	11	2:09	Punt
6	SF	50	6	11	2:09	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 6	4	-4	1:45	Punt
8	SF	PHI 46	7	46	2:46	Touchdown +7
9	PHI	PHI 25	16	67	6:53	Touchdown +7
10	SF	SF 25	3	11	0:25	Fumble
11	PHI	SF 30	4	20	0:55	Touchdown +7
12	SF	SF 39	3	13	0:16	End of half
13	SF	SF 25	8	24	3:17	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 17	4	3	0:56	Punt
15	SF	SF 45	4	0	2:14	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 9	16	72	7:50	Touchdown +7
17	SF	SF 15	9	23	4:51	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	SF 43	9	16	5:35	Field goal +3
19	SF	SF 31	5	0	1:12	Fumble
20	PHI	SF 31	6	14	4:05	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 72 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	7/13	74	2	-2.0
Brock Purdy	4/4	23	1	-4.8
Christian McCaffrey	0/1	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	15	84	5.6	1	-0.3
George Kittle	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0
Josh Johnson	2	2	1.0	0	-4.6
Deebo Samuel	6	-9	-1.5	0	-8.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	3	6	33	40%	-1.9
George Kittle	3	4	32	27%	2.5
Christian McCaffrey	4	4	22	27%	0.0
Brandon Aiyuk	1	1	10	7%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	4	4	0.0	0
Dre Greenlaw	4	4	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	6	1	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	4	2	0.0	1
Arik Armstead	5	0	1.0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	0	0.0	2
Nick Bosa	3	1	0.0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	3	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	4	0	0.0	1
Samson Ebukam	2	1	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	15/25	121	0	0	1	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Gainwell	14	48	3.4	0	1.4
Miles Sanders	11	42	3.8	2	2.0
Jalen Hurts	11	39	3.5	1	1.5
Boston Scott	6	21	3.5	1	1.1
Gardner Minshew	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	2	3	36	13%	4.5
A.J. Brown	4	8	28	33%	-1.7
Kenneth Gainwell	2	3	26	13%	2.5
Dallas Goedert	5	6	23	25%	-1.4
Jack Stoll	1	1	5	4%	-0.1
Miles Sanders	1	1	3	4%	-0.4
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
Quez Watkins	0	1	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	4	2	0.0	0
Reed Blankenship	2	4	0.0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	3	0.0	0
James Bradberry	3	0	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	2.0	0
Josh Sweat	2	1	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	1	1.0	1
Avonte Maddox	1	1	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	2	0	0.0	0
Milton Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -2.5
Closing total: 45
SF moneyline: +133
PHI moneyline: -147

Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 45; the game landed 38 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: SF 7 days · PHI 8 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Nick Sirianni