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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 29, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
49ersSan Francisco7
BY 24final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia31
San Francisco 49ers 7 at Philadelphia Eagles 31. Final.
Eagles -2.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles 31, 49ers 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:19, 1st and 10 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:19 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
U 45 ✓
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:19, Eagles +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ1 10:28(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].
11.2pts
Brock PurdyEaglesQ1 7:03(7:03) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk (7-H.Reddick). Philadelphia challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 40 for -10 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by PHI-72-L.Joseph at PHI 44. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
11.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
Swing +12.6 for EaglesExpected points +4.63 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:19SF +13% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
1st · 10:28PHI +11% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].
1st · 7:03SF +11% win prob(7:03) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk (7-H.Reddick). Philadelphia challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 40 for -10 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick), RECOVERED by PHI-72-L.Joseph at PHI 44. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 8:37PHI +7% win prob(8:37) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:40PHI +6% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-S.Ebukam was injured during the play.
1st · 12:36PHI +5% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 11-A.Brown to SF 42 for 10 yards (7-C.Ward).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Sanders's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 1:40 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th5:20Jake Elliott·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+37–31
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryEagles
49ers0–9Eagles
164Total yards271
3.6Yards per play4.0
33%Success rate41%
25%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
3Explosive plays7
11First downs18
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.4649ers: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.08Eagles: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.3549ers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.01Eagles: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.5649ers: −0.56 expected points added per play
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 45 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 40%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 1, Eagles 6.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected, −20.6 pts, sat 16.5 points below their season number of −4.1 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, sat 41.9 points above their season number of 24.8% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 19.8-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, sat 17.0 points below their season number of −0.7 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles38.1%
off script — got home · +20.3 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+3.24× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 17.7% and 3.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].
Q1 10:28 · Eagles · 4th & 3 at SF 35 · gained 29 · +4.05 EP · +13.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
433
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1243%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.3129%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.5063%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1925%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
49ers0Eagles6
49ers0Eagles7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the 49ers 6
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 44 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 27
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 34
Punt4 plays
49ers6Eagles7
49ers7Eagles7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 23
49ers7Eagles13
49ers7Eagles14
Touchdown20 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the 49ers 13
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 36
49ers7Eagles20
49ers7Eagles21
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 10
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 20
Punt4 plays
49ers7Eagles27
49ers7Eagles28
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the 49ers 1
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 24
4th quarter28 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 47
49ers7Eagles31
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the 49ers 11
Fumble lost5 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 38
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
