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Game Center
2022 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 29, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Conference Championship
It turned at Q2 1:19, 1st and 10 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:19, Eagles +12.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:19 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 31, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at SF 30.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Miles Sanders's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 1:40 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 45 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 40%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 1, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 38.1%, sat 20.3 points above their season number of 17.7% — they got home by 3.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +3.2σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate, 36.0%, sat 19.2 points below their season number of 55.2% — they ran early by 2.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected, −20.6 pts, sat 16.5 points below their season number of −4.1 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent, 28.6%, sat 14.8 points above their season number of 13.8% — they sent pressure by 2.2 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, sat 41.9 points above their season number of 24.8% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 19.8-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, sat 17.0 points below their season number of −0.7 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-20.6 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −16.5 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−2.22× that swing) · 45 snaps
Eagles-17.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −17.0 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−2.08× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 80%
Tendencies room →49ers51.4%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 35 early downs
Eagles36.0%off script — ran early · −19.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−2.43× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →49ers23.8%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Eagles18.5%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 121%
Fourth Down room →49ers66.7%off script — went for it · +41.9 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+2.12× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles75.0%inside their normal wobble · +23.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →49ers18.5%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles28.6%off script — sent pressure · +14.8 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 41%
Tendencies room →49ers11.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles38.1%off script — got home · +20.3 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+3.24× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 17.7% and 3.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
15/25, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.7 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Passing · SF
7/13, 74 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Miles Sanders banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.6 | +7.6 | 98% | 100% | 27% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd · 15 car, 84 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 17.5 | +9.1 | 30% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 11 car, 42 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −8.4 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 121 yd · 11 car, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −4.2 | 42% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 14 car, 48 yd · 2/3, 26 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 8.1 | +2.7 | 30% | 26% | 0% | — | 6 car, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.3 | −1.2 | 88% | 89% | 25% | 9% | 5/6, 23 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.8 | −4.9 | 84% | 96% | 33% | 39% | 4/8, 28 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 6.6 | +0.8 | 100% | 100% | 27% | 35% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/4, 32 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.6 | 91% | 96% | 13% | 30% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.4 | −8.4 | 98% | 95% | 40% | 75% | 6 car, -9 yd · 3/6, 33 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 96% | 100% | 7% | 14% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 32% | 26% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Josh JohnsonQB | 1.2 | −2.0 | 50% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 74 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 57% | 52% | 4% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 31% | 37% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Charlie WoernerTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gardner MinshewQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brock PurdyQB | -1.1 | −2.0 | 48% | — | 0% | — | 4/4, 23 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to SF 6 for 29 yards (1-J.Ward) [94-C.Omenihu].
Q1 10:28 · Eagles · 4th & 3 at SF 35 · gained 29 · +4.05 EP · +13.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
49ers0
Eagles649ers0Eagles7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
49ers6Eagles749ers7Eagles749ers7Eagles1349ers7Eagles14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
49ers7Eagles2049ers7Eagles2149ers7Eagles2749ers7Eagles2849ers7Eagles31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 7/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −4.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 1 | −0.3 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 40% | −1.9 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/25 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_21_SF_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 45; the game landed 38 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | -9 | -1.5 | 0 | −8.4 |
| +2.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 27% | +0.0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arik Armstead | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 13% | +4.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 33% | −1.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 25% | −1.4 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
