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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 12, 2023 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Super Bowl
It turned at Q4 10:33, 4th and 3 — 18.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 38–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 10:33, Chiefs +18.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:33 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
(10:33) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at PHI 5 for 65 yards (8-A.Siposs).
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Eagles at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Eagles at +0.16 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(10:33) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney pushed ob at PHI 5 for 65 yards (8-A.Siposs).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 27-yard field goal with 0:11 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+338–3512 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryEagles
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 51 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Eagles’s 73 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Eagles 6.
Eagles outgained Chiefs 419-347 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's blitz rate sent, 33.3%, sat 19.6 points above their season number of 13.8% — they sent pressure by 2.9 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points. · +2.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2022 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs3.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.4 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 51 snaps
Eagles-5.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chiefs59.1%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 44 early downs
Eagles63.5%leaned — passed early · +8.3 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →Chiefs23.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles33.3%leaned — faked the run · +15.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +15.5 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 48%
Tendencies room →Chiefs31.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Eagles33.3%off script — sent pressure · +19.6 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+2.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 34%
Tendencies room →Chiefs9.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Eagles16.7%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
PHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 19.6 points above their season mean of 13.8% and 2.9 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
27/38, 304 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.9 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Passing · KC
21/27, 182 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
12.4 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Hurts banked 9.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 41.2 | +9.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/38, 304 yd, 1 TD · 15 car, 70 yd, 3 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | +3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 182 yd, 3 TD · 6 car, 44 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 21.6 | +7.0 | 88% | 90% | 24% | 39% | 6/8, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 20.1 | +7.6 | 78% | 87% | 24% | 39% | 6/6, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | +1.3 | 99% | 100% | 26% | 33% | 7/9, 100 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 13.6 | — | 47% | 37% | 0% | — | 15 car, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −1.7 | 69% | 80% | 36% | 36% | 7/9, 53 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +0.8 | 95% | 100% | 21% | 15% | 6/7, 60 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 8.1 | −2.9 | 51% | 57% | 12% | 1% | 7 car, 21 yd · 4/4, 20 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Receiving Back | 7.9 | −2.8 | 55% | 63% | 12% | 0% | 4 car, 34 yd · 3/3, 15 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | — | 25% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +4.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.5 | 60% | 53% | 8% | 11% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.2 | 28% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 2.7 | −3.5 | 17% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.4 | 56% | 67% | 6% | 10% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 62% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 1.6 | −4.0 | 35% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 0.0 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 64% | 80% | 4% | 21% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 45 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 44, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at PHI 36. 32-N.Bolton for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 9:48 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at PHI 49 · lost 5 · -8.54 EP · −20.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 75 yards from the PHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Eagles6Chiefs0Eagles7Chiefs6Eagles7Chiefs7Eagles7How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs7Eagles13Chiefs7Eagles14How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Chiefs13Eagles14Chiefs14Eagles14How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Chiefs14Eagles20Chiefs14Eagles21Chiefs14Eagles24Chiefs20Eagles24Chiefs21Eagles24Chiefs21Eagles27Chiefs27Eagles27Chiefs28Eagles27How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Chiefs34Eagles27Chiefs35Eagles27How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs35Eagles33Chiefs35Eagles35How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Chiefs38Eagles35How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/27 | 182 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +12.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 | 24% | +7.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Gay | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 27/38 | 304 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_22_KC_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 73 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 34 |
| 8.5 |
| 0 |
| +2.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 36% |
| +1.0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4% | +2.6 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 3 | +2.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 9 | 100 | 0 | 26% | +4.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 96 | 1 | 24% | +6.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 21% | +5.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −0.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avonte Maddox | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Bradberry | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arryn Siposs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
