2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · FedExField

Arizona Cardinals

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -7 no coverU 38 ✓Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Washington Commanders 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 4:45, ARI +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:45ARI 16 — WAS 17ARI ball · 1st & 15WAS 60%

(4:45) 9-J.Dobbs FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 38, and recovers at ARI 37. 9-J.Dobbs to ARI 37 for no gain (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), touched at ARI 38, RECOVERED by WAS-92-A.Anderson at ARI 37. PENALTY on ARI-70-P.J

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:45ARI +25% win prob(4:45) 9-J.Dobbs FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 38, and recovers at ARI 37. 9-J.Dobbs to ARI 37 for no gain (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), touched at ARI 38, RECOVERED by WAS-92-A.Anderson at ARI 37. PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 37.
Q2 · 1:02ARI +23% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 12 for -14 yards (45-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (45-D.Gardeck) [45-D.Gardeck], RECOVERED by ARI-97-C.Thomas at WAS 2. 97-C.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:54WAS +18% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:09ARI +16% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 25 for -10 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at ARI 29.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:22WAS Touchdown
(4:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — WAS 7
Q1 · 0:56ARI Field goal
(:56) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — WAS 7
Q2 · 13:31ARI Field goal
(13:31) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: ARI 6 — WAS 7
Q2 · 1:02ARI Touchdown
(1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 12 for -14 yards (45-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (45-D.Gardeck) [45-D.Gardeck], RECOVERED by ARI-97-C.Thomas at WAS 2. 97-C.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 13 — WAS 7
Q2 · 0:03WAS Field goal
(:03) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ARI-3-B.Baker, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: ARI 13 — WAS 10
Q3 · 10:12ARI Field goal
(10:12) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — WAS 10
Q4 · 11:54WAS Touchdown
(11:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 16 — WAS 17
Q4 · 2:26WAS Field goal
(2:26) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — WAS 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Commanders
Offensive plays	58	65
Total yards	210	248 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	3.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.35	-0.29 (edge)
Success rate	31%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	-0.33 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

19/31, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-13.4 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Joshua DobbsQB

21/30, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.2 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

14 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

19 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Curtis SamuelWR

5/5 for 54 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

4/8 for 43 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	10	26	4:01	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 17	7	13	3:24	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 9	7	24	3:20	Touchdown +7
4	ARI	ARI 25	9	64	3:22	Field goal +3
5	WAS	WAS 25	3	-1	1:07	Interception
6	ARI	WAS 37	4	1	1:20	Field goal +3
7	WAS	WAS 25	9	59	4:35	Fumble
8	ARI	ARI 16	4	4	2:34	Punt
9	WAS	ARI 49	5	4	1:50	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 12	7	35	2:58	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 12	4	-10	0:34	Defensive touchdown
12	WAS	WAS 19	8	69	0:55	Field goal +3
13	ARI	ARI 25	12	56	4:51	Field goal +3
14	WAS	WAS 25	9	10	4:47	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 25	5	19	2:28	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 25	4	12	1:26	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 40	3	-11	1:26	Fumble
18	WAS	ARI 29	8	29	3:14	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 25	5	-2	2:01	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 24	4	9	2:10	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 21	7	24	2:59	Fumble
22	WAS	ARI 22	4	7	2:15	Field goal +3
23	ARI	ARI 25	7	7	1:13	Turnover on downs
24	WAS	ARI 36	5	10	1:10	Punt

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 69 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	21/30	132	0	0	3	-9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	14	62	4.4	-1.4
Marquise Brown	1	29	29.0	2.2
Rondale Moore	2	12	6.0	-0.3
Joshua Dobbs	3	-3	-1.0	-8.0
Keaontay Ingram	5	-4	-0.8	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rondale Moore	3	3	33	10%	1.5
Marquise Brown	3	5	28	17%	2.6
Trey McBride	2	2	23	7%	1.6
Zach Ertz	6	10	21	33%	-3.4
Michael Wilson	2	4	19	13%	-2.1
James Conner	5	5	8	17%	-2.5
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	5	4	0.0	0
K'Von Wallace	3	4	0.0	2
Jonathan Ledbetter	3	3	1.0	0
Marco Wilson	5	1	0.0	1
Jalen Thompson	3	2	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	2	2	1.0	0
Budda Baker	2	2	0.0	0
Dennis Gardeck	2	1	2.0	0
Victor Dimukeje	2	1	1.0	0
Jesse Luketa	3	0	0.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	19/31	202	1	1	6	-13.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	19	59	3.1	0	-3.5
Sam Howell	2	11	5.5	1	2.8
Antonio Gibson	3	9	3.0	0	-4.9
Chris Rodriguez	3	7	2.3	0	-0.3
Curtis Samuel	1	6	6.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	5	5	54	0	17%	-0.0
Logan Thomas	4	8	43	0	28%	-1.0
Jahan Dotson	5	7	40	0	24%	-1.6
Terry McLaurin	2	4	31	0	14%	1.4
Cole Turner	1	2	17	0	7%	1.2
Antonio Gibson	1	1	10	0	3%	0.4
Brian Robinson	1	2	7	1	7%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamren Curl	6	4	0.0	1
Kendall Fuller	3	3	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Darrick Forrest	2	3	0.0	0
Montez Sweat	3	1	1.5	0
Cody Barton	2	2	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	1	1.0	0
James Smith-Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Casey Toohill	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -7
Closing total: 38
ARI moneyline: +270
WAS moneyline: -340

Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 38; the game landed 36 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: ARI 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Ron Rivera