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Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q4 4:45, 1st and 15 — 25.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:45 · 1st and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Commanders
(4:45) 9-J.Dobbs FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 38, and recovers at ARI 37. 9-J.Dobbs to ARI 37 for no gain (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), touched at ARI 38, RECOVERED by WAS-92-A.Anderson at ARI 37. PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 37.
Washington Commanders 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 4:45, Commanders +25.3% win probability on one snap.
25.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 chunk plays, against Commanders at 1 chunk play.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(4:45) 9-J.Dobbs FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 38, and recovers at ARI 37. 9-J.Dobbs to ARI 37 for no gain (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), touched at ARI 38, RECOVERED by WAS-92-A.Anderson at ARI 37. PENALTY on ARI-70-P.J
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sam Howell's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 11:54 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Commanders’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Commanders 5.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-11.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.0 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 58 snaps
Commanders-0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 91%
Tendencies room →Cardinals48.8%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 43 early downs
Commanders57.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals36.4%leaned — faked the run · +14.9 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Commanders12.8%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.9%.
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 57%
Tendencies room →Cardinals25.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders30.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 35%
Tendencies room →Cardinals17.9%leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders18.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
ARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 17.9%, 8.1 points above their season mean of 9.9% and 1.6 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
19/31, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-13.4 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
21/30, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.2 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Curtis Samuel banked 2.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 15.2 | −0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 202 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | −1.1 | 61% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 19 car, 59 yd · 1/2, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 12.0 | −1.7 | 84% | 88% | 17% | 0% | 14 car, 62 yd · 5/5, 8 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +2.8 | 65% | 74% | 17% | 12% | 1 car, 6 yd · 5/5, 54 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | −1.7 | 87% | 90% | 24% | 28% | 5/7, 40 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +1.4 | 84% | 91% | 17% | 26% | 1 car, 29 yd · 3/5, 28 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −3.5 | 82% | 79% | 28% | 21% | 4/8, 43 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.1 | −7.1 | 77% | 91% | 33% | 30% | 6/10, 21 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +1.9 | 68% | 73% | 10% | 4% | 2 car, 12 yd · 3/3, 33 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.7 | 89% | 79% | 14% | 19% | 2/4, 31 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +1.8 | 37% | 30% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 23 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −2.1 | 90% | 91% | 13% | 37% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.5 | 14% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 1.0 | −9.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 132 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 0.9 | −2.1 | 35% | 49% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 0.7 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Greg DortchWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jamison CrowderWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Keaontay IngramRB | -0.4 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:45) 9-J.Dobbs FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 38, and recovers at ARI 37. 9-J.Dobbs to ARI 37 for no gain (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat), touched at ARI 38, RECOVERED by WAS-92-A.Anderson at ARI 37. PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 37.
Q4 4:45 · Cardinals · 1st & 15 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · -5.89 EP · −27.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 76 yards from the WAS 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Commanders6Cardinals0Commanders7Cardinals3Commanders7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
Cardinals6Commanders7How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cardinals12Commanders7Cardinals13Commanders7Cardinals13Commanders10Cardinals16Commanders10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Cardinals16Commanders16Cardinals16Commanders17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cardinals16Commanders20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 21/30 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −9.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 19/31 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −13.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_ARI_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 38; the game landed 36 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −8.0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Trey McBride | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 33% | −3.4 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −2.1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 17% | −2.5 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Watkins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Dimukeje | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesse Luketa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 59 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −3.5 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Chris Rodriguez | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 17% | −0.0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 28% | −1.0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 24% | −1.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 14% | +1.4 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
