2023 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 11, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo Bills

New York JetsWinner

BUF -2.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 22–16. Biggest swing: Q4 4:55, BUF +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:55BUF 13 — NYJ 13BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 60%

(4:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 21, and recovers at BUF 21. 17-J.Allen to BUF 25 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons). FUMBLES (72-M.Clemons), RECOVERED by NYJ-95-Q.Williams at BUF 27.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:55BUF +27% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 21, and recovers at BUF 21. 17-J.Allen to BUF 25 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons). FUMBLES (72-M.Clemons), RECOVERED by NYJ-95-Q.Williams at BUF 27.
OT · 9:21BUF +26% win prob(9:21) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:06NYJ +21% win prob(:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 · 2:50NYJ +17% win prob(2:50) 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to BUF 16 for 2 yards (90-S.Lawson; 43-T.Bernard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:09BUF Field goal
(3:09) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 10:39NYJ Field goal
(10:39) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 4:51BUF Touchdown
(4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 0:20BUF Field goal
(:20) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 3
Q3 · 9:03NYJ Field goal
(9:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 6
Q4 · 4:58NYJ Touchdown
(4:58) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 17-G.Wilson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 13
Q4 · 1:51NYJ Field goal
(1:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 16
Q4 · 0:06BUF Field goal
(:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NYJ 16
OT · 9:21NYJ Touchdown
(9:21) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NYJ 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	67	51
Total yards	314 (edge)	291
Yards per play	4.7	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	73%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Bills outgained Jets 314–291 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

29/41, 236 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-1.4 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

14/21, 140 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

10 att, 127 yds, 0 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

12 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

10/13 for 102 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Allen LazardWR

2/4 for 46 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	7	17	2:30	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 12	6	29	3:06	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 23	11	60	6:19	Field goal +3
4	NYJ	NYJ 22	8	15	3:11	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 29	3	2	1:52	Interception
6	NYJ	NYJ 4	5	88	2:27	Field goal +3
7	BUF	BUF 25	13	75	5:52	Touchdown +7
8	NYJ	NYJ 26	4	12	1:35	Interception
9	BUF	50	9	34	2:51	Field goal +3
10	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:17	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	50	6:01	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 25	9	34	4:51	Interception
13	NYJ	NYJ 20	5	19	1:58	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 15	4	8	1:37	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	6	1:22	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 15	8	28	4:28	Interception
17	NYJ	NYJ 43	9	57	4:48	Touchdown +7
18	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:04	Fumble
19	NYJ	BUF 27	8	15	3:03	Field goal +3
20	BUF	BUF 25	10	53	1:46	Field goal +3
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:02	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	BUF 25	5	3	0:58	Defensive touchdown

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 88 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	29/41	236	1	3	5	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	12	46	3.8	-1.2
Josh Allen	6	36	6.0	-1.3
Latavius Murray	2	8	4.0	-0.0
Deonte Harty	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Damien Harris	1	3	3.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	13	102	1	33%	3.7
Gabe Davis	2	4	32	0	10%	-1.5
Dalton Kincaid	4	4	26	0	10%	1.6
Dawson Knox	3	4	25	0	10%	1.2
James Cook	4	6	17	0	15%	-1.9
Damien Harris	2	2	16	0	5%	0.5
Latavius Murray	1	2	9	0	5%	2.0
Deonte Harty	3	4	9	0	10%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	3	7	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	1	5	0.0	1	1
Taylor Rapp	3	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	2	1.5	0	0
Ed Oliver	1	2	0.5	0	0
Christian Benford	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jordan Phillips	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	1	1	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	1	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	14/21	140	1	1	2	-3.2
Aaron Rodgers	0/1	0	0	0	1	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	10	127	12.7	4.6
Dalvin Cook	13	33	2.5	-3.6
Zach Wilson	4	6	1.5	2.2
Michael Carter	1	6	6.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	2	4	46	0	22%	4.2
Garrett Wilson	5	5	34	1	28%	3.6
Dalvin Cook	3	3	26	0	17%	1.0
Breece Hall	1	2	20	0	11%	0.4
Michael Carter	2	2	12	0	11%	-1.3
Tyler Conklin	1	1	2	0	6%	-0.5
Randall Cobb	0	1	0	0	6%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
D.J. Reed	8	1	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	8	1	0.0	1
C.J. Mosley	2	2	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	3	1.0	0
Quinnen Williams	1	3	0.0	0
Michael Carter	2	2	0.0	0
Tony Adams	3	1	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	1	2.0	0
Jamien Sherwood	3	0	0.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 44.5
BUF moneyline: -135
NYJ moneyline: +114

Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.