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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 11, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q4 4:55, 1st and 10 — 27.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:55 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(4:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 21, and recovers at BUF 21. 17-J.Allen to BUF 25 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons). FUMBLES (72-M.Clemons), RECOVERED by NYJ-95-Q.Williams at BUF 27.
New York Jets 22–16. Biggest swing: Q4 4:55, Jets +27.3% win probability on one snap.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(4:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 21, and recovers at BUF 21. 17-J.Allen to BUF 25 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons). FUMBLES (72-M.Clemons), RECOVERED by NYJ-95-Q.Williams at BUF 27.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Xavier Gipson's 65-yard return touchdown with 9:21 left in overtime put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Xavier Gipson65-yd return TD65-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+616–229 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Jets’s 51 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Jets 3.
Bills outgained Jets 314-291 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Bills6.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 67 snaps
Jets-10.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 98%
Tendencies room →Bills68.5%inside their normal wobble · +12.7 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 54 early downs
Jets43.2%leaned — ran early · −17.5 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 46%
Tendencies room →Bills8.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.0 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jets11.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Bills0.0%leaned — took the kick · −48.3 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±44.3 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets33.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 49%
Tendencies room →Bills15.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets16.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills26.9%leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets18.4%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 9.7 points above their season mean of 17.2% and 1.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
29/41, 236 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-1.4 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
14/21, 140 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Breece Hall banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.2 | +3.1 | 84% | 84% | 33% | 40% | 10/13, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 15.7 | +8.3 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 0% | 10 car, 127 yd · 1/2, 20 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +4.9 | 93% | 96% | 28% | 27% | 5/5, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 10.3 | −4.5 | 59% | 50% | 15% | 7% | 12 car, 46 yd · 4/6, 17 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −11.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/41, 236 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 6 car, 36 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Committee Back | 8.9 | −1.5 | 50% | 50% | 17% | 0% | 13 car, 33 yd · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 8.2 | −1.2 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 14/21, 140 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 6 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +0.9 | 80% | 68% | 10% | 1% | 4/4, 26 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | +1.2 | 78% | 96% | 22% | 33% | 2/4, 46 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −0.9 | 84% | 78% | 10% | 8% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 5.2 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −4.3 | 22% | 26% | 10% | 14% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/4, 9 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 3.9 | 0.0 | 13% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Receiving Back | 3.8 | +0.2 | 22% | 35% | 11% | 4% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 2.7 | −0.6 | 23% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 2 car, 8 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 80% | 69% | 6% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 41% | 54% | 6% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:21) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 9:21 · Bills · 4th & 12 at BUF 23 · gained nothing · -5.44 EP · −25.5% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 88 yards from the NYJ 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills3
Jets0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bills3Jets3Bills9Jets3Bills10Jets3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills13Jets3Bills13Jets6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills13Jets12Bills13Jets13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Bills13Jets16Bills16Jets16Bills16Jets22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/41 | 236 | 1 | 3 | 5 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 13 | 102 | 1 | 33% | +3.7 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/21 | 140 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −3.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_BUF_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 38 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +1.6 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| James Cook | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 15% | −1.9 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Phillips | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 127 | 12.7 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 22% | +4.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 28% | +3.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Reed | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
