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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q3 6:48, 3rd and 6, on Jessie Bates — 16.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:48 · 3rd and 6
Jessie Bates
Falcons
(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 88-T.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 49. 3-J.Bates to ATL 49 for no gain (88-T.Marshall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 49.
Atlanta Falcons 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 6:48, Falcons +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 10 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 88-T.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 49. 3-J.Bates to ATL 49 for no gain (88-T.Marshall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, en
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Allgeier's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 14:18 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 72 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Falcons’s 47 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Falcons 3.
Panthers outgained Falcons 281-222 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-9.7 ptsright on their number · −4.2 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 72 snaps
Falcons-13.1 ptsright on their number · −3.2 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Panthers51.8%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 56 early downs
Falcons37.8%leaned — ran early · −11.6 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 61%
Tendencies room →Panthers14.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons22.7%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Panthers33.3%inside their normal wobble · −19.6 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers27.3%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Falcons21.4%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Panthers22.7%leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Falcons16.7%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 8.5 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
20/38, 146 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-10.5 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
15/18, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.5 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tyler Allgeier banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 24.4 | +6.0 | 56% | 50% | 17% | 5% | 15 car, 75 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 20.3 | +5.1 | 63% | 86% | 33% | 0% | 10 car, 56 yd · 6/6, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Hayden HurstTE · Featured Receiver | 15.1 | +2.8 | 53% | 64% | 23% | 20% | 5/7, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | −4.9 | 57% | 50% | 19% | 0% | 18 car, 72 yd · 4/6, 26 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | +1.7 | 100% | — | 6% | 0% | 15/18, 115 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd · 1/1, -6 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 8.9 | +1.8 | 36% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 60 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 7.5 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/38, 146 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +0.7 | 62% | 91% | 17% | 83% | 2/3, 44 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | +0.4 | 63% | 77% | 22% | 51% | 3/4, 31 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −4.1 | 90% | 90% | 19% | 34% | 2/6, 23 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.3 | 32% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −3.8 | 87% | 88% | 16% | 31% | 2/5, 17 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.5 | 88% | 86% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 10% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 19% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 50% | 50% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 90% | 91% | 6% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 88-T.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 49. 3-J.Bates to ATL 49 for no gain (88-T.Marshall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 49.
Q3 6:48 · Panthers · 3rd & 6 at CAR 40 · gained nothing · -4.59 EP · −17.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Panthers0
Falcons6Panthers0Falcons7Panthers6Falcons7Panthers7Falcons7Panthers10Falcons7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Panthers10Falcons10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Panthers10Falcons16Panthers10Falcons17Panthers10Falcons23Panthers10Falcons24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 20/38 | 146 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −10.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 23% | −0.2 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 19% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Burns | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 15/18 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_CAR_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 34 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −4.3 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 16% | −0.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Thurman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
| 75 |
| 5.0 |
| 2 |
| +1.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 17% | +2.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 22% | +0.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 33% | −0.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Drake London | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Andersen | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kaden Elliss | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Flowers | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
