2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -3.5 ✓U 40.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Atlanta Falcons 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 6:48, CAR +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:48CAR 10 — ATL 7CAR ball · 3rd & 6CAR 59%

(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 88-T.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 49. 3-J.Bates to ATL 49 for no gain (88-T.Marshall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, en

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:48CAR +16% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 88-T.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 49. 3-J.Bates to ATL 49 for no gain (88-T.Marshall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 49.
Q3 · 2:29CAR +13% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard to ATL 39 for 10 yards (27-R.Grant; 20-D.Alford). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard to ATL 39 for 10 yards (20-D.Alford, 3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-0-L.Carter at ATL 39.
Q1 · 6:14CAR +12% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to ATL 12 for -1 yards (90-D.Onyemata, 48-B.Dupree).
Q1 · 1:10CAR +10% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at CAR 20. 3-J.Bates to CAR 17 for 3 yards (15-J.Mingo).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 15:00ATL Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — ATL 7
Q2 · 5:13CAR Touchdown
(5:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — ATL 7
Q3 · 10:50CAR Field goal
(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 7
Q3 · 4:56ATL Field goal
(4:56) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 10
Q4 · 14:18ATL Touchdown
(14:18) 25-T.Allgeier left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 17
Q4 · 4:52ATL Touchdown
(4:52) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Falcons
Offensive plays	72	47
Total yards	281 (edge)	222
Yards per play	3.9	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	39% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	58%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Falcons 281–222 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

20/38, 146 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.5 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

15/18, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

15 att, 75 yds, 2 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Miles SandersRB

18 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

2/3 for 44 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Hayden HurstTE

5/7 for 41 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	-6	1:58	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 40	11	48	6:54	Turnover on downs
3	ATL	ATL 12	6	36	3:21	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 14	2	5	1:46	Interception
5	ATL	CAR 17	4	17	1:07	Touchdown +7
6	CAR	CAR 25	5	7	0:53	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 15	4	9	1:34	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 25	13	75	7:18	Touchdown +7
9	ATL	ATL 25	6	20	3:21	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 17	4	0	0:24	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 28	4	-2	1:24	End of half
12	CAR	CAR 25	10	50	4:14	Field goal +3
13	ATL	ATL 25	5	7	1:12	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 21	5	19	2:56	Interception
15	ATL	CAR 36	4	5	1:46	Field goal +3
16	CAR	CAR 25	5	32	2:28	Fumble
17	ATL	ATL 39	8	61	3:12	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 25	8	9	3:15	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 35	4	15	2:41	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 1	4	2	1:07	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 44	7	56	2:21	Touchdown +7
22	CAR	CAR 25	5	-12	1:01	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 22	4	4	1:08	Punt
24	CAR	CAR 30	12	46	2:25	Turnover on downs
25	ATL	ATL 30	1	0	0:14	End of game

6 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	20/38	146	1	2	2	-10.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Miles Sanders	18	72	4.0	-5.1
Chuba Hubbard	9	60	6.7	-1.3
Bryce Young	3	17	5.7	-1.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	5	2.5	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hayden Hurst	5	7	41	1	23%	-0.2
Miles Sanders	4	6	26	0	19%	0.3
Terrace Marshall	2	6	23	0	19%	-4.3
Jonathan Mingo	2	5	17	0	16%	-0.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	2	16	0	6%	2.0
Adam Thielen	2	2	12	0	6%	0.8
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	9	0	6%	-1.1
Giovanni Ricci	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Brian Burns	5	2	2.0
Jeremy Chinn	3	4	0.0
Derrick Brown	5	0	1.0
Frankie Luvu	2	2	0.5
Shaq Thompson	3	1	0.0
Nick Thurman	1	2	0.0
Shy Tuttle	0	3	0.5
C.J. Henderson	3	0	0.0
DeShawn Williams	2	1	0.0
Vonn Bell	2	1	0.0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	15/18	115	1	0	4	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	15	75	5.0	2	1.1
Bijan Robinson	10	56	5.6	0	-1.7
Desmond Ridder	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	2	3	44	0	17%	2.8
Mack Hollins	3	4	31	0	22%	0.9
Bijan Robinson	6	6	27	1	33%	-0.2
Tyler Allgeier	3	3	19	0	17%	-0.7
Drake London	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.6
Desmond Ridder	1	1	-6	0	6%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Andersen	3	7	0.5	0	0
Jessie Bates	4	5	0.0	2	2
Kaden Elliss	6	3	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	3	4	0.0	0	0
Richie Grant	3	4	0.0	0	1
A.J. Terrell	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dee Alford	2	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Harrison	1	2	0.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0.5	0	0
David Onyemata	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 40.5
CAR moneyline: +160
ATL moneyline: -192

Falcons closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 34 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CAR 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.