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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Cincinnati Bengals 3 at Cleveland Browns 24. Final.
Bengals -1 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 1
Cleveland Browns 24, Bengals 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:22, 2nd and 10, on Deshaun Watson — 13.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 46.5 ✓
Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:22, Browns +13.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:22 · 2nd and 10
Deshaun Watson
Browns
(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsQ1 3:44(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CIN 25 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 4-D.Watson to CIN 24 for 1 yard. Handoff to 34-J.Ford to CIN 16 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt; 33-N.Scott). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-22-C.Awuzie at CIN 13. 22-C.Awuzie to CIN 13 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
12.0pts
Evan McPhersonBrownsQ3 6:57(6:57) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
10.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 2 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 21% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.47 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.7 for BrownsExpected points +3.15 for BrownsThe model had Browns 15 points higher than the market did.play 91
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:22CLE +14% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:44CIN +12% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CIN 25 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 4-D.Watson to CIN 24 for 1 yard. Handoff to 34-J.Ford to CIN 16 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt; 33-N.Scott). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-22-C.Awuzie at CIN 13. 22-C.Awuzie to CIN 13 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
3rd · 6:57CIN +11% win prob(6:57) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
3rd · 9:53CIN +10% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Hill (95-Z.Carter) at CIN 30. 23-D.Hill pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (71-J.Wills). Penalty on CLE-77-W.Teller, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 0:45CLE +9% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper to CIN 37 for 11 yards.
2nd · 8:47CIN +8% win prob(8:47) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 42-yard field goal with 14:19 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:19Dustin Hopkins·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+30–3
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.47Bengals: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.58Bengals: −0.58 expected points added per play
−0.26Browns: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.03Browns: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Browns’s 73 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 0, Browns 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's play-action rate, 45.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 9.4 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 29.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns29.4%
leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 45.7%, 22.9 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 2.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson to−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CIN 25 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 4-D.Watson to CIN 24 for 1 yard. Handoff to 34-J.Ford to CIN 16 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt; 33-N.Scott). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-22-C.Awuzie at CIN 13. 22-C.Awuzie to CIN 13 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Q1 3:44 · Browns · 2nd & 5 at CIN 21 · gained 5 · -4.57 EP · −13.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 67 yards from the CLE 33 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
30%
Yards
494
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1643%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4568%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.0138%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7-0.8371%
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.2857%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1040%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Browns 47
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Bengals 21
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Bengals 24
2nd quarter58 plays
Bengals0Browns3
Field goal3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 19
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Browns 38
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 5 to the Bengals 14
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 24
Bengals0Browns9
Bengals0Browns10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Bengals 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
Bengals3Browns10
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Browns 24
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 41
No good7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 33
Bengals3Browns13
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Bengals 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 39
4th quarter38 plays
Punt1 play
Bengals3Browns16
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Bengals 25
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Bengals3Browns22
Bengals3Browns24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 40
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -1
Closing total
46.5
Bengals moneyline
-112
Browns moneyline
-108
Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 27 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 12:48CLE +8% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Chase. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 5:06CLE +8% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to CIN 26 for 17 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
