2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CIN -1 upsetU 46.5 ✓Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:22, CLE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:22CIN 0 — CLE 9CLE ball · 2nd & 10CLE 63%

(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:22CLE +14% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:44CIN +12% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CIN 25 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 4-D.Watson to CIN 24 for 1 yard. Handoff to 34-J.Ford to CIN 16 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt; 33-N.Scott). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-22-C.Awuzie at CIN 13. 22-C.Awuzie to CIN 13 for no gain (8-E.Moore).
Q3 · 6:57CIN +11% win prob(6:57) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Q3 · 9:53CIN +10% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Hill (95-Z.Carter) at CIN 30. 23-D.Hill pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (71-J.Wills). Penalty on CLE-77-W.Teller, Offensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:19CLE Field goal
(14:19) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 3
Q2 · 0:22CLE Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 10
Q3 · 11:48CIN Field goal
(11:48) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — CLE 10
Q3 · 2:25CLE Field goal
(2:25) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — CLE 13
Q4 · 11:33CLE Field goal
(11:33) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — CLE 16
Q4 · 9:14CLE Touchdown
(9:14) 53-N.Harris and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — CLE 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	52	73
Total yards	144	352 (edge)
Yards per play	2.8	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.47	-0.14 (edge)
Success rate	21%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.58	-0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	2/15	4/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	5	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

16/29, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

14/31, 82 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-18.6 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

18 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

13 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Elijah MooreWR

3/7 for 43 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -7.3 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

5/9 for 39 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 35	8	16	2:55	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 14	7	14	3:35	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 14	4	9	1:31	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 41	7	43	3:24	Fumble
5	CIN	CIN 13	4	9	1:26	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 43	7	33	2:54	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 17	5	7	0:58	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 44	5	9	1:18	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 21	6	41	3:20	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 20	6	20	2:58	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 5	4	9	1:36	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 32	5	14	1:58	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 21	4	7	0:31	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 33	10	67	1:19	Touchdown +7
15	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:17	End of half
16	CLE	CLE 25	5	-1	1:30	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 46	6	12	1:46	Field goal +3
18	CLE	CLE 25	4	39	2:02	Interception
19	CIN	50	7	17	2:49	Missed field goal
20	CLE	CLE 41	9	43	4:32	Field goal +3
21	CIN	CIN 25	7	17	2:27	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 36	6	39	3:25	Field goal +3
23	CIN	CIN 25	5	-7	1:02	Turnover on downs
24	CLE	CIN 18	4	20	1:16	Touchdown +8
25	CIN	CIN 25	5	5	1:34	Punt
26	CLE	CLE 23	4	2	2:22	Punt
27	CIN	CIN 38	4	2	1:34	Punt
28	CLE	CLE 19	7	10	3:17	Punt
29	CIN	CIN 18	1	0	0:24	End of game

6 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 67 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	14/31	82	0	0	2	-18.6
Jake Browning	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	13	56	4.3	-2.9
Chris Evans	2	12	6.0	-0.7
Trayveon Williams	2	7	3.5	-0.3
Ja'Marr Chase	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Joe Burrow	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
Jake Browning	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	5	9	39	29%	2.4
Joe Mixon	3	5	17	16%	-1.0
Irv Smith	3	5	17	16%	-4.6
Tyler Boyd	2	3	10	10%	-1.3
Tee Higgins	0	8	0	26%	-7.5
Chris Evans	1	1	-1	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Scott	4	7	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	5	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	4	1.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Cam Sample	1	4	0.0	0	0
Dax Hill	4	1	0.0	1	1
Mike Hilton	1	3	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	2	1.0	0	1
B.J. Hill	2	1	1.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	16/29	154	1	1	3	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	18	106	5.9	0	2.5
Deshaun Watson	5	45	9.0	1	7.4
Jerome Ford	15	36	2.4	0	-9.6
Elijah Moore	2	19	9.5	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Elijah Moore	3	7	43	0	24%	-7.3
Amari Cooper	3	7	37	0	24%	-0.5
David Njoku	2	3	24	0	10%	1.0
Nick Chubb	4	4	21	0	14%	0.8
Jordan Akins	1	1	12	0	3%	1.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	2	12	0	7%	0.3
Harrison Bryant	2	2	5	1	7%	0.1
David Bell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Marquise Goodwin	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Grant Delpit	7	1	0.0	1
Greg Newsome	1	4	0.0	1
Denzel Ward	3	1	0.0	1
Rodney McLeod	2	2	0.0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	1	1.0	0
Sione Takitaki	1	2	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	1	0.0	0
Matthew Adams	1	1	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	2	0	0.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	0	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 46.5
CIN moneyline: -112
CLE moneyline: -108

Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 27 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CIN 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.