For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q1 8:14, 4th and 21, on Graham Gano — 16.5 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:14 · 4th and 21
Graham Gano
Cowboys
(8:14) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (30-J.Thomas), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan, RECOVERED by DAL-19-N.Igbinoghene at DAL 42. 19-N.Igbinoghene for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dallas Cowboys 40–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:14, Cowboys +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.57 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(8:14) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (30-J.Thomas), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan, RECOVERED by DAL-19-N.Igbinoghene at DAL 42. 19-N.Igbinoghene for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Noah Igbinoghene's 58-yard touchdown with 8:14 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Noah Igbinoghene58-yd defence TD58-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 55 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Giants’s 65 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Giants 2.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 37.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-5.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 55 snaps
Giants-2.0 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Cowboys37.5%off script — ran early · −19.4 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−2.37× that swing) · 40 early downs
Giants65.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 48%
Tendencies room →Cowboys36.0%leaned — faked the run · +10.7 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Giants22.7%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys66.7%inside their normal wobble · +20.0 vs their 46.7%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Giants100.0%leaned — went for it · +53.7 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Cowboys27.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Giants44.0%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Cowboys27.3%leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Giants12.0%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
DAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 19.4 points below their season mean of 56.9% and 2.4 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
13/24, 143 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
4.2 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
15/28, 104 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-22.7 expected points added · -13.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 22.2 | +2.3 | 64% | 80% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 70 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 12 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +4.8 | 79% | 92% | 16% | 20% | 4/4, 77 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +0.8 | 19% | 16% | 12% | 3% | 3 car, 14 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 9.3 | −2.5 | 64% | 52% | 14% | 4% | 12 car, 51 yd · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.1 | 54% | 41% | 17% | 23% | 3/5, 36 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 6.3 | −11.5 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 13/24, 143 yd · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −1.7 | 67% | 61% | 17% | 25% | 3/5, 15 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 4.5 | −10.3 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 104 yd, 2 INT · 13 car, 43 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.9 | 59% | 76% | 16% | 22% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.0 | 29% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Alpha Receiver | 3.1 | −13.7 | 72% | 60% | 28% | 15% | 2/7, 11 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 3.1 | −0.5 | 16% | 16% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 2.4 | −0.8 | 16% | 8% | 0% | — | 6 car, 24 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.4 | 67% | 76% | 8% | 20% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 1.6 | −0.6 | 23% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 9 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.6 | 60% | 45% | 10% | 20% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.9 | 67% | 64% | 14% | 11% | 1/4, 2 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.1 | 63% | 48% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Deuce VaughnRB | 0.8 | −1.9 | 14% | 8% | 0% | — | 6 car, 8 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.0 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 48% | 52% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 28% | 16% | 4% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 36% | 34% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 20% | 20% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:14) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (30-J.Thomas), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan, RECOVERED by DAL-19-N.Igbinoghene at DAL 42. 19-N.Igbinoghene for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:14 · Giants · 4th & 21 at DAL 27 · gained nothing · -8.88 EP · −22.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys6
Giants0Cowboys9Giants0Cowboys15Giants0Cowboys16Giants0Cowboys19Giants0Cowboys25Giants0Cowboys26Giants0Cowboys32Giants0Cowboys33Giants0Cowboys39Giants0Cowboys40Giants0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 13/24 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Cooper Rush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Kavontae Turpin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 | 16% | +5.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | +1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markquese Bell | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/28 | 104 | 0 | 2 | 7 | −22.7 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_DAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 40.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 14 |
| 4.7 |
| 1 |
| +2.7 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12% | +1.1 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 28% | −4.7 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevon Diggs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Daniel Jones | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 17% | −0.8 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | −6.1 |
| Lawrence Cager | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +2.0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −4.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −2.1 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14% | −3.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah McFadden | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Hawkins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
