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2023 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 7, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

21

Kansas City Chiefs

20

KC -4 upsetU 53 ✓

Detroit Lions 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 11:04, DET +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCDET
Q3 · 11:04DET 13KC 14KC ball · 3rd & 6KC 86%

(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 11:04DET +25% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:09DET +12% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 84-Ju.Watson [79-J.Cominsky].
  3. Q4 · 5:51DET +12% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 81-B.Bell. 4-R.Rice right end to KC 31 for -3 yards (93-J.Paschal).
  4. Q4 · 8:31KC +12% win prob(8:31) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to KC 14 for 33 yards (50-W.Gay).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:52DET Touchdown

    (2:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7KC 0
  2. Q2 · 11:56KC Touchdown

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7KC 7
  3. Q2 · 0:37KC Touchdown

    (:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 81-B.Bell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7KC 14
  4. Q3 · 11:04DET Touchdown

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14KC 14
  5. Q3 · 2:14KC Field goal

    (2:14) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DET 14KC 17
  6. Q4 · 12:16KC Field goal

    (12:16) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DET 14KC 20
  7. Q4 · 7:11DET Touchdown

    (7:11) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21KC 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsChiefs
Offensive plays6662
Total yards371 (edge)316
Yards per play5.6 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)-0.15
Success rate41% (edge)40%
Dropback rate53%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.32
Third downs5/145/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers11

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/35, 253 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/39, 226 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

21 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

4/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

6/9 for 71 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 25570:51Punt
2KCKC 137253:19Punt
3DETDET 915918:04Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2515755:56Touchdown +7
5DETDET 2512716:36Fumble
6KCKC 7451:27Punt
7DETDET 41421:45Punt
8KCKC 187921:28Touchdown +7
9DETDET 258170:34Turnover on downs
10KCKC 257142:06Punt
11DETDET 7441:10Punt
12KCKC 42340:50Defensive touchdown
13KCKC 257162:18Punt
14DETDET 177432:52Punt
15KCKC 108323:34Field goal +3
16DETDET 255201:04Punt
17KCKC 328473:55Field goal +3
18DETDET 2511805:05Touchdown +7
19KCKC 25561:59Punt
20DETDET 345262:37Turnover on downs
21KCKC 45400:30Turnover on downs
22DETKC 306102:00End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 92 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff22/352531016.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery21743.51-2.0
Jahmyr Gibbs7426.000.3
Jalen Reeves-Maybin133.002.5
Jared Goff5-1-0.20-4.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Reynolds4780022%0.3
Amon-Ra St. Brown6971128%5.6
Sam LaPorta5539016%1.7
Kalif Raymond112003%1.8
Jahmyr Gibbs221806%1.5
Brock Wright221706%1.3
Marvin Jones268019%-6.2

Defense (top contributors)

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes21/39226210-6.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Patrick Mahomes6457.502.9
Isiah Pacheco8232.90-1.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6223.70-1.0
Skyy Moore144.00-0.3
Kadarius Toney1-1-1.00-0.7
Rashee Rice1-3-3.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling224805%4.1
Justin Watson2445011%1.7
Isiah Pacheco4431011%2.7
Noah Gray3531014%-1.0
Rashee Rice3529114%0.6
Blake Bell231218%1.1
Jerick McKinnon121005%-0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire11703%0.4
Richie James12605%-0.3
Justyn Ross11603%0.2
Kadarius Toney151014%-11.4
Skyy Moore03008%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Trent McDuffie620.000
George Karlaftis340.001
Justin Reid420.002
Bryan Cook330.000
L'Jarius Sneed230.000
Michael Danna321.001
Nick Bolton230.000
Leo Chenal230.000
Matt Dickerson120.000
Derrick Nnadi120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -4
Closing total
53
DET moneyline
+164
KC moneyline
-198

Chiefs closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 41 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
DET 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Andy Reid