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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 7, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q3 11:04, 3rd and 6, on Brian Branch — 24.6 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 11:04, Lions +24.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:04 · 3rd and 6
Brian Branch
Lions
(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 5 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
David Montgomery's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 7:11 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+314–17Harrison Butker39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+314–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryChiefs
Lions ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 66 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 62 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Chiefs 4.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-7.0 ptsright on their number · −3.0 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 66 snaps
Chiefs12.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 84%
Tendencies room →Lions44.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 49 early downs
Chiefs66.0%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions28.6%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chiefs22.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Lions40.0%inside their normal wobble · −19.4 vs their 59.4%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.4 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Lions31.1%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs42.9%inside their normal wobble · +9.7 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions15.6%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs11.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
KC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.4 points below their season mean of 31.4% and 1.2 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
22/35, 253 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.5 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Passing · KC
21/39, 226 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-6.5 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
6/9 for 71 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown banked 4.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 19.5 | −5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/39, 226 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 45 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.1 | +4.4 | 94% | 97% | 28% | 28% | 6/9, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 14.0 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 253 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, -1 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.4 | +3.1 | 79% | 75% | 0% | — | 21 car, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +0.6 | 70% | 78% | 22% | 32% | 4/7, 80 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +0.7 | 31% | 27% | 14% | 11% | 1 car, -3 yd · 3/5, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −0.7 | 48% | 42% | 11% | 0% | 8 car, 23 yd · 4/4, 31 yd |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.4 | 40% | 29% | 8% | 4% | 2/3, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +2.0 | 83% | 83% | 16% | 9% | 5/5, 39 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | 8.0 | +1.3 | 27% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 7 car, 42 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +2.8 | 63% | 73% | 5% | 13% | 2/2, 48 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −1.5 | 29% | 36% | 11% | 30% | 2/4, 45 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −0.5 | 88% | 89% | 14% | 10% | 3/5, 31 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 3.9 | −0.8 | 22% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.5 | 39% | 28% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.8 | 27% | 25% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 2.0 | −0.9 | 31% | 40% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Justyn RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.3 | 35% | 40% | 5% | 13% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −12.2 | 25% | 24% | 14% | 12% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/5, 1 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 0.8 | −8.4 | 56% | 58% | 19% | 23% | 2/6, 8 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −5.3 | 69% | 64% | 8% | 8% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:04 · Chiefs · 3rd & 6 at KC 46 · gained nothing · -8.54 EP · −24.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 91 yards from the DET 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions6
Chiefs0Lions7Chiefs0Lions7Chiefs6Lions7Chiefs7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Lions7Chiefs13Lions7Chiefs14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Lions13Chiefs14Lions14Chiefs14Lions14Chiefs17Lions14Chiefs20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions20Chiefs20Lions21Chiefs20How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/35 | 253 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 22% | +0.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Barnes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jerry Jacobs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/39 | 226 | 2 | 1 | 0 | −6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_DET_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53; the game landed 41 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.5 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 | −4.5 |
| 28% |
| +5.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +1.7 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −6.2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Paschal | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Rashee Rice | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 5% | +4.1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 11% | +1.7 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 11% | +2.7 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Rashee Rice | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 14% | +0.6 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Justyn Ross | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14% | −11.4 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent McDuffie | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bolton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Dickerson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
