For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Lions167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.6 for ChiefsExpected points −8.54 for ChiefsThe model had Lions 5 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:04DET +25% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:09DET +12% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 84-Ju.Watson [79-J.Cominsky].
4th · 5:51DET +12% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 81-B.Bell. 4-R.Rice right end to KC 31 for -3 yards (93-J.Paschal).
4th · 8:31KC +12% win prob(8:31) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to KC 14 for 33 yards (50-W.Gay).
4th · 2:14DET +11% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 4-R.Rice (2-C.Gardner-Johnson).
2nd · 1:07KC +11% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to DET 30 for 34 yards (23-J.Jacobs).
4th · 2:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 7:11 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:52Amon-Ra St. Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+77–0
2nd11:56Rashee Rice·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–7
2nd0:37Blake Bell·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–14
3rd2:14Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+314–17
4th12:16Harrison Butker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+314–20
4th7:11David Montgomery·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryChiefs
Lions5–1Chiefs
371Total yards316
5.6Yards per play5.1
41%Success rate40%
36%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
19First downs16
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Lions: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.15Chiefs: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Lions: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.08Chiefs: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Lions: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.32Chiefs: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 66 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 62 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Chiefs 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs11.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteKC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.4 points below their season mean of 31.4% and 1.2 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiG · Every snap100%70 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%70 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%70 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time94%66 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time83%58 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
0Marvin JonesWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational39%27 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational16%11 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Situational9%6 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Steven GilmoreCBEmmanuel MoseleyCBIsaiah BuggsDTBrodric MartinDTRomeo OkwaraOLB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Teddy BridgewaterQBAntoine GreenWR
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%65 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%65 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%65 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%65 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Full-time88%57 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:04 · Chiefs · 3rd & 6 at KC 46 · gained nothing · -8.54 EP · −24.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 91 yards from the DET 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
36%
Yards
684
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1769%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0262%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1945%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0645%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.5850%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1150%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Chiefs 38
Lions6Chiefs0
Lions7Chiefs0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Chiefs 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to midfield
2nd quarter51 plays
Lions7Chiefs6
Lions7Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chiefs 17
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Chiefs 12
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Lions7Chiefs13
Lions7Chiefs14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Lions 4
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 42
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 39
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Lions13Chiefs14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 46
Lions14Chiefs14
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 41
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Chiefs 40
Lions14Chiefs17
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Lions 17
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chiefs 36
4th quarter45 plays
Lions14Chiefs20
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 20
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Lions20Chiefs20
Lions21Chiefs20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chiefs 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Chiefs 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
