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Green Bay Packers 38, Bears 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:37, 2nd and 10, on Jordan Love — 12.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:37 · 2nd and 10
Jordan Love
Bears
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at CHI 34 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
Bears closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:37, Bears +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jayden ReedPackersQ2 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed to CHI 26 for 30 yards (4-E.Jackson).
12.0pts
Aaron JonesPackersQ3 12:24(12:24) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones pushed ob at CHI 7 for 51 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
12.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Bears at 3 of 13 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.18 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at CHI 34 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
Swing +12.8 for BearsExpected points +1.28 for BearsThe model had Bears 2 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:37GB +13% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at CHI 34 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
2nd · 1:02CHI +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed to CHI 26 for 30 yards (4-E.Jackson).
3rd · 12:24CHI +12% win prob(12:24) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones pushed ob at CHI 7 for 51 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
1st · 11:39GB +12% win prob(11:39) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 40 for no gain (91-P.Smith). Official measurement
3rd · 6:34CHI +8% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 10:11CHI +8% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs to CHI 30 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon). Officials Measurement
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Romeo Doubs's 8-yard touchdown catch with 6:14 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:14Romeo Doubs·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:08Cairo Santos·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+37–3
2nd9:04Cairo Santos·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+37–6
2nd0:04Anders Carlson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+310–6
4th2:58Roschon Johnson·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+638–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBears
Packers6–3Bears
329Total yards313
5.5Yards per play4.3
37%Success rate42%
56%Third-down rate23%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
15First downs22
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.18Bears: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Packers: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Packers: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.26Bears: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Bears’s 72 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Bears 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Bears10.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.5%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 51.1% and 1.7 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Walker reported+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:24) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones pushed ob at CHI 7 for 51 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q3 12:24 · Packers · 2nd & 3 at GB 42 · gained 51 · +3.54 EP · +11.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1964%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3856%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3227%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3843%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0117%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Packers6Bears0
Packers7Bears0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 5
Packers7Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Packers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Packers7Bears6
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Packers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 32
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Bears 43
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Bears 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers10Bears6
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Bears 26
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Packers16Bears6
Packers17Bears6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays
Packers23Bears6
Packers24Bears6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 35
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 18
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 41
Packers24Bears12
Packers24Bears14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Packers 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Packers 41
4th quarter57 plays
Packers30Bears14
Packers31Bears14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 4
Packers37Bears14
Touchdown4 plays
Packers38Bears14
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 48
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 24
Packers38Bears20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Packers 2
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Bears 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
