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2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Soldier Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

38

Chicago Bears

20

CHI -1 upsetO 41 ✓

Green Bay Packers 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:37, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑GB ↓
Q2 · 0:37GB 7 — CHI 6GB ball · 2nd & 10GB 69%

(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at CHI 34 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:37GB +13% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at CHI 34 for -8 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
  2. Q2 · 1:02CHI +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed to CHI 26 for 30 yards (4-E.Jackson).
  3. Q3 · 12:24CHI +12% win prob(12:24) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones pushed ob at CHI 7 for 51 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
  4. Q1 · 11:39GB +12% win prob(11:39) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 40 for no gain (91-P.Smith). Official measurement

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:14GB Touchdown

    (6:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q1 · 2:08CHI Field goal

    (2:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 9:04CHI Field goal

    (9:04) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CHI 6
  4. Q2 · 0:04GB Field goal

    (:04) 17-A.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — CHI 6
  5. Q3 · 10:23GB Touchdown

    (10:23) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — CHI 6
  6. Q3 · 6:34GB Touchdown

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-A.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — CHI 6
  7. Q3 · 1:04CHI Touchdown

    (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 11-D.Mooney for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — CHI 14
  8. Q4 · 13:34GB Touchdown

    (13:34) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 31 — CHI 14
  9. Q4 · 12:53GB Touchdown

    (12:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 7-Q.Walker [97-K.Clark] at CHI 37. 7-Q.Walker for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-29-R.Douglas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 38 — CHI 14
  10. Q4 · 2:58CHI Touchdown

    (2:58) 23-R.Johnson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 38 — CHI 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBears
Offensive plays6072
Total yards329 (edge)313
Yards per play5.5 (edge)4.3
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)-0.18
Success rate37%42% (edge)
Dropback rate50%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.55 (edge)-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24 (edge)-0.26
Third downs9/16 (edge)3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1522 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

15/27, 245 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.8 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

24/37, 216 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

9 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

9 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Aaron JonesRB

2/4 for 86 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

4/7 for 53 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · -2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 127283:29Turnover on downs
2GBCHI 4012405:23Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 348484:04Field goal +3
4GBGB 25541:32Punt
5CHICHI 3712476:32Field goal +3
6GBGB 24581:44Punt
7CHICHI 204101:48Punt
8GBGB 317263:16Punt
9CHICHI 66141:00Punt
10GBGB 446221:12Field goal +3
11GBGB 2510754:41Touchdown +7
12CHICHI 255-22:14Punt
13GBCHI 425421:39Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 11471:28Fumble
15GBCHI 43421:36Punt
16CHICHI 357572:23Touchdown +8
17GBGB 397662:29Touchdown +7
18CHICHI 254-10:54Defensive touchdown
19CHICHI 30792:24Punt
20GBGB 78243:54Punt
21CHICHI 3115693:24Touchdown +6
22GBCHI 446201:51Turnover on downs
23CHICHI 255271:03End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love15/2724530117.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones9414.613.8
Patrick Taylor5224.40-2.8
A.J. Dillon13191.50-6.1
Jordan Love3124.00-0.9
Sean Clifford100.00-0.8
Jayden Reed1-2-2.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Aaron Jones2486115%8.4
Luke Musgrave3450015%2.2
Jayden Reed2548019%1.2
Romeo Doubs4526219%6.2
Samori Toure2318011%1.2
A.J. Dillon2317011%1.3
Dontayvion Wicks02007%-0.9
Malik Heath01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Darnell Savage540.000
Keisean Nixon610.000
Rasul Douglas520.001
De'Vondre Campbell330.000
Preston Smith410.000
Isaiah McDuffie310.000
Rudy Ford130.000
Jaire Alexander300.001
Quay Walker030.011
Devonte Wyatt211.500

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields24/37216114-11.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields9596.600.7
Khalil Herbert9273.00-1.5
Roschon Johnson5204.012.5
D'Onta Foreman5163.20-0.7
Cole Kmet100.00-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney4753119%-2.8
Cole Kmet5744019%0.9
Khalil Herbert3537014%2.4
Roschon Johnson6735019%0.6
D.J. Moore222506%0.6
Tyler Scott221406%-0.2
D'Onta Foreman23808%-0.9
Khari Blasingame01003%-0.6
Chase Claypool02006%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards680.000
Jaquan Brisker340.001
Tyrique Stevenson510.000
Tremaine Edmunds410.000
Jack Sanborn220.000
Yannick Ngakoue311.000
Eddie Jackson220.002
Jaylon Johnson210.000
Josh Blackwell110.000
DeMarcus Walker200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -1
Closing total
41
GB moneyline
-102
CHI moneyline
-118

Bears closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 58 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
GB 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.