2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Houston Texans

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -9.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Baltimore Ravens 25–9. Biggest swing: Q1 13:44, HOU +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:44HOU 0 — BAL 0BAL ball · 3rd & 2BAL 74%

(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 9 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:44HOU +13% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 9 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).
Q1 · 13:00BAL +12% win prob(13:00) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to HOU 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-N.Dell to HOU 38 for 14 yards (21-B.Stephens; 53-D.Phillips).
Q2 · 0:31BAL +7% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 3-N.Dell. PENALTY on BAL-98-T.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.
Q1 · 7:25HOU +7% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [51-W.Anderson] at HOU 15. 21-S.Nelson to HOU 15 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:05BAL Touchdown
(1:05) 27-J.Dobbins right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 4:01HOU Field goal
(4:01) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — BAL 7
Q2 · 0:05HOU Field goal
(:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — BAL 7
Q3 · 9:58BAL Touchdown
(9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: HOU 6 — BAL 15
Q3 · 5:24BAL Touchdown
(5:24) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 6 — BAL 22
Q4 · 13:51HOU Field goal
(13:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — BAL 22
Q4 · 4:14BAL Field goal
(4:14) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — BAL 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Ravens
Offensive plays	71	59
Total yards	268 (edge)	267
Yards per play	3.8	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	31%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	7/17	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

28/44, 242 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.2 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/22, 169 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

6 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

11 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

6/11 for 80 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

9/10 for 78 yds, 0 TD

48% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 8	5	1	2:11	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 38	4	-7	1:56	Turnover on downs
3	BAL	HOU 36	6	25	3:33	Interception
4	HOU	HOU 15	4	14	1:52	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 42	10	59	4:28	Touchdown +7
6	HOU	HOU 25	5	2	1:07	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 32	4	10	2:03	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 16	15	67	8:54	Field goal +3
9	BAL	BAL 25	7	19	2:02	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 12	11	43	1:54	Field goal +3
11	HOU	HOU 25	5	-2	1:18	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 29	9	73	3:47	Touchdown +8
13	HOU	HOU 25	6	22	2:20	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	HOU 42	6	25	2:14	Touchdown +7
15	HOU	HOU 25	9	37	3:44	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 20	4	10	1:11	Fumble
17	HOU	BAL 32	6	10	1:39	Field goal +3
18	BAL	BAL 25	8	17	3:33	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 20	4	22	1:14	Fumble
20	BAL	HOU 42	7	26	4:50	Field goal +3
21	HOU	HOU 25	9	27	2:09	Turnover on downs
22	BAL	BAL 48	4	2	1:03	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 10	6	33	0:58	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 73 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	28/44	242	0	0	5	-11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dameon Pierce	11	38	3.5	-4.6
C.J. Stroud	4	20	5.0	-0.6
Devin Singletary	7	15	2.1	-1.8
Noah Brown	1	-1	-1.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	6	11	80	26%	3.8
Robert Woods	6	10	57	23%	2.6
Tank Dell	3	4	34	9%	2.4
Noah Brown	3	4	20	9%	-1.4
Mike Boone	3	4	18	9%	-0.4
Teagan Quitoriano	1	1	11	2%	1.6
Dameon Pierce	2	3	9	7%	-2.7
Xavier Hutchinson	1	1	9	2%	0.1
Dalton Schultz	2	4	4	9%	-2.4
C.J. Stroud	1	1	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Denzel Perryman	5	5	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	5	2	0.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	4	1	1.0	0	0
Christian Harris	3	2	1.0	0	0
Eric Murray	3	1	0.0	0	0
Will Anderson	2	2	1.0	0	0
Derek Stingley	3	0	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	0	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	1	1	0.0	1	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/22	169	0	1	4	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	6	38	6.3	0	1.4
Gus Edwards	8	32	4.0	0	-0.1
J.K. Dobbins	8	22	2.8	1	-1.8
Zay Flowers	2	9	4.5	0	1.1
Justice Hill	8	9	1.1	2	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	9	10	78	48%	2.6
Odell Beckham	2	3	37	14%	4.0
Rashod Bateman	3	3	35	14%	1.3
J.K. Dobbins	2	3	15	14%	0.5
Isaiah Likely	1	1	4	5%	0.1
Charlie Kolar	0	1	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	5	8	1.0	0
Brandon Stephens	8	4	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	3	8	1.0	1
Ar'Darius Washington	3	3	1.0	1
Ronald Darby	4	1	0.0	1
Marcus Williams	3	1	0.0	1
Kyle Hamilton	2	1	0.0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips	1	1	0.0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	1	1.0	0
Geno Stone	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -9.5
Closing total: 43.5
HOU moneyline: +380
BAL moneyline: -500

Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: HOU 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs John Harbaugh