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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 25, Texans 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:44, 3rd and 2, on Lamar Jackson — 12.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:44 · 3rd and 2
Lamar Jackson
Texans
(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 9 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).
Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Baltimore Ravens 25–9. Biggest swing: Q1 13:44, Texans +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRavensQ1 13:00(13:00) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to HOU 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-N.Dell to HOU 38 for 14 yards (21-B.Stephens; 53-D.Phillips).
12.3pts
C.J. StroudTexansQ2 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 3-N.Dell. PENALTY on BAL-98-T.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.
7.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Texans172 of 185 plays carry both curves
(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 9 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).
Swing −12.6 for RavensExpected points −2.34 for RavensThe model had Texans 22 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:44HOU +13% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 9 for -7 yards (52-J.Greenard).
1st · 13:00BAL +12% win prob(13:00) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to HOU 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-N.Dell to HOU 38 for 14 yards (21-B.Stephens; 53-D.Phillips).
2nd · 0:31BAL +7% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 3-N.Dell. PENALTY on BAL-98-T.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.
1st · 7:25HOU +7% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [51-W.Anderson] at HOU 15. 21-S.Nelson to HOU 15 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
1st · 10:59HOU +6% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 36 for -11 yards (6-P.Queen).
3rd · 9:58BAL +6% win prob(9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.K. Dobbins's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:05 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:05J.K. Dobbins·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd4:01Ka'imi Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap J.Weeks+33–7
2nd0:05Ka'imi Fairbairn·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap J.Weeks+36–7
4th13:51Ka'imi Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap J.Weeks+39–22
4th4:14Justin Tucker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+39–25
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryRavens
Texans2–7Ravens
268Total yards267
3.8Yards per play4.5
31%Success rate41%
41%Third-down rate53%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays6
14First downs16
5Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Texans: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.05Ravens: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Texans: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.01Ravens: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 71 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Ravens19.2%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 43.2 points above their season mean of 31.8% and 1.6 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%77 snaps
74Josh JonesG · Every snap100%77 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
68Jarrett PattersonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
77George FantT · Full-time81%62 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time81%62 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation75%58 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation71%55 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Heavy rotation68%52 snaps
3Nathaniel DellWR · Rotational48%37 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Rotational47%36 snaps
22Mike BooneRB · Rotational32%25 snaps
84Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational29%22 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Situational21%16 snaps
47Andrew BeckTE · Situational19%15 snaps
63Michael DeiterC · Situational19%15 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational9%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
Alex AustinCBJimmie WardFSBlake CashmanILBCase KeenumQBDare OgunbowaleRBJohn MetchieWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Nick BroekerGDavis MillsQB
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%64 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Full-time92%59 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Full-time92%59 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time80%51 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
27J.K. DobbinsRB · Rotational47%30 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational44%28 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational39%25 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational38%24 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Situational23%15 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational20%13 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Situational20%13 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Situational11%7 snaps
61Sam MustipherC · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Arthur MauletCBJalyn Armour-DavisCBMarlon HumphreyCBBen ClevelandGTyler HuntleyQBSala Aumavae-LauluTMark AndrewsTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 3-N.Dell. PENALTY on BAL-98-T.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.
Q2 0:31 · Texans · 3rd & 15 at BAL 42 · gained nothing · +1.30 EP · +11.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 71 yards from the BAL 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
33%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.3280%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1377%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1635%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR14+0.0321%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0711%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1425%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 16
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 22
Texans0Ravens6
Texans0Ravens7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Texans 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Texans 40
Texans3Ravens7
Field goal17 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Ravens 16
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 44
Texans6Ravens7
Field goal15 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Ravens 20
3rd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays
Texans6Ravens13
Texans6Ravens15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Texans 2
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 42
Texans6Ravens21
Texans6Ravens22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 2
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 38
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 8
4th quarter48 plays
Texans9Ravens22
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 18
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 43
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 47
Texans9Ravens25
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 9
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Texans 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
