2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

Indianapolis Colts

JAX -4 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeJaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–21. Biggest swing: Q3 2:41, JAX +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:41JAX 17 — IND 20JAX ball · 1st & 20JAX 77%

(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.F

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:41JAX +30% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at JAX 26. 99-D.Buckner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 7:26IND +16% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to IND 11 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q3 · 11:33IND +15% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:19JAX +13% win prob(13:19) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 4-T.Bigsby INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Brown [90-G.Stewart] at IND 41. 38-T.Brown to JAX 25 for 34 yards (4-T.Bigsby). Penalty on JAX-4-T.Bigsby, Illegal Formation, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:26JAX Touchdown
(5:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 0
Q2 · 15:00IND Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 7
Q2 · 5:02JAX Touchdown
(5:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 7
Q3 · 11:33IND Touchdown
(11:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 14
Q3 · 8:35JAX Field goal
(8:35) 10-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 17 — IND 14
Q3 · 2:41IND Touchdown
(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at JAX 26. 99-D.Buckner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 17 — IND 21
Q4 · 5:17JAX Touchdown
(5:17) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 24 — IND 21
Q4 · 4:15JAX Touchdown
(4:15) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 31 — IND 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Colts
Offensive plays	68	69
Total yards	343 (edge)	280
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.23 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	50% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	51%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.74
Third downs	3/12 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	3

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/32, 241 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-9.0 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

24/37, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

18 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

10 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

8/11 for 101 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/11 for 97 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	0	1:25	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 37	4	6	0:53	Punt
3	IND	IND 6	4	9	2:17	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 39	10	61	5:07	Touchdown +7
5	IND	IND 25	13	75	5:21	Touchdown +7
6	JAX	JAX 25	5	28	1:49	Interception
7	IND	JAX 25	4	9	1:13	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 16	4	4	1:39	Punt
9	IND	JAX 48	4	11	1:25	Turnover on downs
10	JAX	JAX 43	8	57	3:55	Touchdown +7
11	IND	IND 24	4	26	0:47	Fumble
12	JAX	JAX 32	7	25	3:06	Punt
13	IND	IND 8	3	6	1:03	End of half
14	JAX	JAX 16	5	-1	1:00	Punt
15	IND	IND 37	7	63	2:35	Touchdown +7
16	JAX	JAX 25	9	48	2:54	Field goal +3
17	IND	IND 25	5	-4	2:03	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 42	4	9	2:03	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 49	4	7	1:15	Fumble
20	JAX	JAX 46	1	-1	0:43	Defensive touchdown
21	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
22	IND	IND 27	4	7	1:16	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 43	4	9	1:55	Turnover on downs
24	IND	IND 48	4	-3	2:06	Punt
25	JAX	IND 46	11	46	5:32	Touchdown +7
26	IND	IND 25	3	0	0:14	Interception
27	JAX	IND 44	4	44	0:52	Touchdown +7
28	IND	IND 25	18	74	3:23	Turnover on downs
29	JAX	JAX 1	2	1	0:45	End of game

7 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	24/32	241	2	1	2	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	18	77	4.3	1	-0.8
Trevor Lawrence	7	21	3.0	0	-3.0
Tank Bigsby	7	13	1.9	1	-0.6
Jamal Agnew	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	8	11	101	1	34%	5.2
Zay Jones	5	7	55	1	22%	6.1
Evan Engram	5	5	49	0	16%	-0.0
Travis Etienne	5	5	27	0	16%	-0.9
Christian Kirk	1	3	9	0	9%	-1.5
Tank Bigsby	0	1	0	0	3%	-7.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	5	0.0	0	1
Andre Cisco	6	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	5	3	3.0	0	0
Travon Walker	3	3	1.0	0	0
Tyson Campbell	5	0	0.0	1	1
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	0	0.0	0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	1	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	1	2	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0
Tank Bigsby	1	0	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Anthony Richardson	24/37	223	1	1	4	-4.4
Gardner Minshew	0/2	0	0	0	0	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Anthony Richardson	10	40	4.0	1	-0.2
Deon Jackson	13	14	1.1	0	-10.7
Jake Funk	2	10	5.0	0	-0.9
Evan Hull	1	1	1.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	8	11	97	1	28%	-1.0
Kylen Granson	4	6	39	0	15%	2.5
Josh Downs	3	7	30	0	18%	-1.8
Andrew Ogletree	1	2	20	0	5%	2.3
Deon Jackson	5	6	14	0	15%	-8.5
Jake Funk	1	1	12	0	3%	1.4
Evan Hull	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1
Alec Pierce	1	3	5	0	8%	-0.9
Mo Alie-Cox	0	2	0	0	5%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaire Franklin	8	7	0.0	1
Shaquille Leonard	3	5	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	4	3	1.0	0
Dallis Flowers	3	2	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	4	1	0.0	0
E.J. Speed	2	2	0.0	0
Darrell Baker	3	1	0.0	0
Kwity Paye	2	1	1.0	0
Kenny Moore	3	0	0.0	0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -4
Closing total: 45.5
JAX moneyline: -205
IND moneyline: +170

Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 52 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: JAX 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.