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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q3 2:41, 1st and 20, on Trevor Lawrence — 30.5 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:41 · 1st and 20
Trevor Lawrence
Colts
(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at JAX 26. 99-D.Buckner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Jacksonville Jaguars 31–21. Biggest swing: Q3 2:41, Colts +30.5% win probability on one snap.
30.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.74 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.F
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tank Bigsby's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:17 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Colts’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Colts 4.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-3.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.9 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 68 snaps
Colts-0.3 ptsright on their number · +3.9 vs their -4.2 pts, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 88%
Tendencies room →Jaguars49.1%leaned — ran early · −10.9 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 53 early downs
Colts67.3%leaned — passed early · +13.6 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 54%
Tendencies room →Jaguars22.9%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Colts23.4%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±22.9 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Colts83.3%leaned — went for it · +49.2 vs their 34.1%, and they swing ±30.8 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 50%
Tendencies room →Jaguars19.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Colts8.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Jaguars17.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Colts11.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
IND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 49.2 points above their season mean of 34.1% and 1.6 times their own 30.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
24/32, 241 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-9.0 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · IND
24/37, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.4 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
8/11 for 97 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Michael Pittman banked 5.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin RidleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.1 | +3.9 | 81% | 94% | 34% | 46% | 8/11, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.7 | +5.3 | 97% | 89% | 28% | 33% | 8/11, 97 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 21.4 | +5.0 | 80% | 83% | 16% | 0% | 18 car, 77 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 27 yd |
| Anthony RichardsonQB · Starter QB | 20.9 | −2.9 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 24/37, 223 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | +1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 241 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 21 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +3.6 | 89% | 91% | 22% | 34% | 5/7, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.2 | 73% | 86% | 16% | 12% | 5/5, 49 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −1.4 | 61% | 70% | 15% | 18% | 4/6, 39 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 7.3 | −1.1 | 21% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 13 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −5.8 | 79% | 70% | 18% | 9% | 3/7, 30 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB · Committee Back | 3.8 | −14.5 | 71% | 62% | 15% | 0% | 13 car, 14 yd · 5/6, 14 yd |
| Jake FunkRB | 3.2 | +0.7 | 18% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.7 | 21% | 17% | 5% | 13% | 1/2, 20 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.6 | 60% | 63% | 9% | 9% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Evan HullRB | 1.7 | −0.3 | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.1 | 92% | 79% | 8% | 10% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB | 0.0 | −3.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.9 | 42% | 28% | 5% | 18% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.2 | −3.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | -0.4 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at JAX 26. 99-D.Buckner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 2:41 · Jaguars · 1st & 20 at JAX 36 · lost 1 · -8.60 EP · −33.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 182 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars6
Colts0Jaguars7Colts0Jaguars7Colts6Jaguars7Colts7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
Jaguars13Colts7Jaguars14Colts7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Jaguars14Colts13Jaguars14Colts14Jaguars17Colts14How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Jaguars17Colts20Jaguars17Colts21How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars23Colts21Jaguars24Colts21How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars30Colts21Jaguars31Colts21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/32 | 241 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 11 | 101 | 1 | 34% | +5.2 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 22% | +6.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 24/37 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −4.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −4.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_JAX_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 52 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 16% | −0.0 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 16% | −0.9 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −7.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Deon Jackson | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | −10.7 |
| Jake Funk | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 11 | 97 | 1 | 28% | −1.0 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15% | +2.5 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 18% | −1.8 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Deon Jackson | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 15% | −8.5 |
| Jake Funk | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −4.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallis Flowers | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taven Bryan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
