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2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

30

Seattle Seahawks

13

SEA -4.5 upsetU 45 ✓

Los Angeles Rams 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:01, SEA +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑LA ↓
Q3 · 9:01LA 13 — SEA 13LA ball · 2nd & 7SEA 69%

(9:01) 23-K.Williams left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 9:01SEA +13% win prob(9:01) 23-K.Williams left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 10:35SEA +12% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to SEA 8 for 44 yards (22-T.Brown).
  3. Q4 · 9:49SEA +10% win prob(9:49) 3-C.Akers left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 1:54LA +10% win prob(1:54) 8-B.Maher 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Ja.Reed), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 48. 30-M.Jackson to LA 42 for 10 yards (72-T.Anchrum).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:56SEA Field goal

    (9:56) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 0 — SEA 3
  2. Q1 · 0:42LA Touchdown

    (:42) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 9:21SEA Touchdown

    (9:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — SEA 10
  4. Q2 · 4:22SEA Field goal

    (4:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LA 7 — SEA 13
  5. Q3 · 9:01LA Touchdown

    (9:01) 23-K.Williams left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 14 — SEA 13
  6. Q3 · 2:43LA Field goal

    (2:43) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 17 — SEA 13
  7. Q4 · 9:49LA Touchdown

    (9:49) 3-C.Akers left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 24 — SEA 13
  8. Q4 · 5:02LA Field goal

    (5:02) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 27 — SEA 13
  9. Q4 · 0:15LA Field goal

    (:15) 8-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 30 — SEA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsSeahawks
Offensive plays7846
Total yards426 (edge)180
Yards per play5.5 (edge)3.9
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)-0.11
Success rate50% (edge)43%
Dropback rate50%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.55 (edge)-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.05
Third downs11/17 (edge)2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)10
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers00

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

24/38, 334 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

20.7 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

16/26, 112 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

12 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

15 att, 52 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Tutu AtwellWR

6/8 for 119 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

10/15 for 119 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 2513475:08Field goal +3
2LALA 2518859:13Touchdown +7
3SEASEA 2514756:23Touchdown +7
4LALA 305142:12Punt
5SEASEA 496282:46Field goal +3
6LALA 258372:33Missed field goal
7SEALA 425181:14Missed field goal
8LALA 296330:31Missed field goal
9LALA 2412766:04Touchdown +7
10SEASEA 30551:03Punt
11LALA 209605:14Field goal +3
12SEASEA 25651:35Punt
13LALA 2115746:19Touchdown +7
14SEASEA 25520:36Punt
15LALA 259404:12Field goal +3
16SEASEA 355-91:41Punt
17LALA 42973:05Field goal +3
18SEASEA 35290:11End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford24/3833400020.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams15523.522.5
Cam Akers22291.31-2.7
Matthew Stafford3113.700.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tutu Atwell68119022%8.0
Puka Nacua1015119041%7.6
Tyler Higbee334908%5.9
Van Jefferson4524014%2.2
Brycen Hopkins122105%0.8
Kyren Williams02205%-1.5
Ben Skowronek02005%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones450.000
Jordan Fuller250.000
Christian Rozeboom330.000
Byron Young310.500
Aaron Donald120.500
Derion Kendrick300.001
Michael Hoecht120.500
Russ Yeast110.000
Kobie Turner020.500
Ahkello Witherspoon200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith16/26112102-4.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker12645.300.6
Zach Charbonnet3113.70-1.0
Geno Smith166.000.3
DeeJay Dallas242.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf3547121%3.5
Will Dissly221708%1.6
DeeJay Dallas111404%0.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba3513021%-3.0
Tyler Lockett2410017%-0.4
Colby Parkinson12808%-0.2
Kenneth Walker453021%-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner6100.000
Jordyn Brooks470.000
Julian Love620.001
Coby Bryant620.000
Tre Brown410.000
Boye Mafe310.000
Uchenna Nwosu210.000
Dre'Mont Jones120.000
Jarran Reed210.000
Mike Morris210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Closing total
45
LA moneyline
+180
SEA moneyline
-218

Seahawks closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 43 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LA 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.