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2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

17

Denver Broncos

16

DEN -3 upsetU 43 ✓

Las Vegas Raiders 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:11, LV +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑LV ↓
Q3 · 2:11LV 10 — DEN 13LV ball · 3rd & 6DEN 53%

(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:11LV +18% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
  2. Q4 · 3:00DEN +15% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to DEN 49 for 7 yards (22-K.Jackson). LV-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
  3. Q2 · 0:18DEN +14% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 13:41DEN +13% win prob(13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LV 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. PENALTY on LV-59-L.Masterson, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 43 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:32LV Touchdown

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Meyers, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 0
  2. Q1 · 0:50DEN Touchdown

    (:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 6
  3. Q2 · 10:57LV Field goal

    (10:57) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 6
  4. Q2 · 0:18DEN Touchdown

    (:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 13
  5. Q4 · 8:57DEN Field goal

    (8:57) 16-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 16
  6. Q4 · 6:38LV Touchdown

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 17 — DEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersBroncos
Offensive plays5157
Total yards267 (edge)260
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.6
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)-0.00
Success rate37%46% (edge)
Dropback rate57%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.53 (edge)0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.30-0.13 (edge)
Third downs5/10 (edge)5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)26 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

20/26, 200 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.1 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

27/34, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.4 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

13 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

19 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

9/10 for 81 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

6/9 for 66 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVDEN 4412385:32Touchdown +7
2DENDEN 1416868:44Touchdown +6
3LVLV 2511704:50Field goal +3
4DENDEN 2510176:05Punt
5LVLV 56162:19Punt
6DENDEN 2510582:18Touchdown +7
7LVLV 25200:12End of half
8DENDEN 2611325:28Missed field goal
9LVLV 4513527:31Interception
10DENDEN 2016608:07Field goal +3
11LVLV 258602:20Touchdown +7
12DENDEN 25571:26Punt
13LVLV 3111315:08End of game

6 of 13 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 86 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo20/2620021013.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs19482.50-4.5
Jimmy Garoppolo9111.20-1.9
Zamir White122.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers91081238%9.1
Davante Adams6966035%6.9
Josh Jacobs2323012%0.7
Austin Hooper112004%1.4
Zamir White11504%-0.0
DeAndre Carter11504%-0.0
Ameer Abdullah01004%-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nate Hobbs640.000
Divine Deablo540.001
Robert Spillane430.000
Trevon Moehrig510.000
Jakorian Bennett600.000
Maxx Crosby231.000
Marcus Epps230.000
Jerry Tillery121.000
Marcus Peters300.000
Luke Masterson110.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson27/341772022.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams13524.00-1.6
Samaje Perine8415.10-1.0
Russell Wilson111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Samaje Perine4437013%2.4
Adam Trautman5534016%2.1
Courtland Sutton4532116%3.6
Brandon Johnson233109%0.8
Greg Dulcich222206%2.4
Lil'Jordan Humphrey221116%2.0
Marvin Mims22906%-1.0
Javonte Williams465019%-3.3
Michael Burton11303%0.4
Phillip Dorsett01003%-0.8
Jaleel McLaughlin11-703%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell150.000
Alex Singleton240.001
Zach Allen230.000
Damarri Mathis500.000
Kareem Jackson400.011
Jonathan Harris220.000
Justin Simmons310.000
D.J. Jones210.000
Jonathon Cooper210.000
Essang Bassey110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3
Closing total
43
LV moneyline
+136
DEN moneyline
-162

Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
LV 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.