For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 1
It turned at Q3 2:11, 3rd and 6, on Kareem Jackson — 18.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:11, Broncos +18.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:11 · 3rd and 6
Kareem Jackson
Broncos
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Raiders at 2 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.00 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jakobi Meyers's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:38 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, wide right+67–6
Jakobi Meyers6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+717–166 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBroncos
Raiders ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Broncos 3.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-0.5 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 51 snaps
Broncos-0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 81%
Tendencies room →Raiders50.0%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 40 early downs
Broncos60.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.7%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Broncos30.6%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 72%
Fourth Down room →Raiders33.3%right on their number · +7.4 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.6 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Raiders19.4%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos44.8%leaned — sent pressure · +13.0 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 32%
Tendencies room →Raiders11.1%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos10.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 21.6 points below their season mean of 21.6% and 1.1 times their own 19.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
20/26, 200 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
13.1 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
27/34, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.4 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jakobi Meyers banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.1 | +8.0 | 80% | 83% | 38% | 38% | 9/10, 81 yd, 2 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 15.2 | −0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/34, 177 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | −2.0 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 200 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 11 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +4.4 | 86% | 84% | 16% | 29% | 4/5, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | −1.9 | 90% | 100% | 35% | 52% | 6/9, 66 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | +2.0 | 45% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 8 car, 41 yd · 4/4, 37 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 9.7 | −6.5 | 45% | 41% | 19% | 0% | 13 car, 52 yd · 4/6, 5 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +4.6 | 70% | 65% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.1 | −8.5 | 80% | 69% | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 48 yd · 2/3, 23 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | 0.0 | 72% | 68% | 16% | 14% | 5/5, 34 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.4 | 50% | 54% | 9% | 25% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.0 | 33% | 32% | 6% | 14% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.7 | 53% | 55% | 4% | 10% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.6 | 27% | 27% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 1.7 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 1.3 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.3 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 39% | 35% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 49% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jesper HorstedTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
Q3 2:11 · Raiders · 3rd & goal at DEN 6 · gained nothing · -4.91 EP · −24.3% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 13 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 13 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7Broncos0Raiders7Broncos6Raiders10Broncos6How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Raiders10Broncos12Raiders10Broncos13How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Raiders10Broncos16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Raiders16Broncos16Raiders17Broncos16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/26 | 200 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +13.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Zamir White |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 38% | +9.1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 35% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Hobbs | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/34 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_01_LV_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| +6.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.9 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakorian Bennett | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Masterson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 13% | +2.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 16% | +2.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 16% | +3.6 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 19% | −3.3 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Essang Bassey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
