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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
RaidersLas Vegas17
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver16
Las Vegas Raiders 17 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 1
Las Vegas Raiders 17, Broncos 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 2:11, 3rd and 6, on Kareem Jackson — 18.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:11 · 3rd and 6
Kareem Jackson
Broncos
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
U 43 ✓
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:11, Broncos +18.4% win probability on one snap.
18.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ2 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
Jakobi MeyersRaidersQ4 3:00(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to DEN 49 for 7 yards (22-K.Jackson). LV-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
15.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Raiders at 2 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.00 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders147 of 158 plays carry both curves
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
Swing +18.4 for BroncosExpected points +4.91 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 6 points higher than the market did.play 113
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:11LV +18% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
4th · 3:00DEN +15% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to DEN 49 for 7 yards (22-K.Jackson). LV-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
2nd · 0:18DEN +14% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:41DEN +13% win prob(13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LV 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. PENALTY on LV-59-L.Masterson, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 43 - No Play.
4th · 2:00DEN +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo scrambles left end to DEN 23 for 8 yards (47-J.Jewell).
4th · 6:38DEN +11% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakobi Meyers's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:38 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:32Jakobi Meyers·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+77–0
1st0:50Lil'Jordan Humphrey·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, wide right+67–6
2nd10:57Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+310–6
2nd0:18Courtland Sutton·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+710–13
4th8:57Wil Lutz·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+310–16
4th6:38Jakobi Meyers·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+717–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryBroncos
Raiders4–2Broncos
267Total yards260
5.2Yards per play4.6
37%Success rate46%
50%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays6
16First downs16
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Raiders: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Raiders: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Raiders: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Broncos 3.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 21.6 points below their season mean of 21.6% and 1.1 times their own 19.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (49-A.Singleton) at DEN -4. Touchback.
Q3 2:11 · Raiders · 3rd & goal at DEN 6 · gained nothing · -4.91 EP · −24.3% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 13 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 13 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
521
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1771%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3360%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2255%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.1444%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2043%
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Raiders6Broncos0
Raiders7Broncos0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Broncos 3
Raiders7Broncos6
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Raiders 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
2nd quarter46 plays
Raiders10Broncos6
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Broncos 5
Punt14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 26
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Raiders10Broncos12
Raiders10Broncos13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
No good13 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Raiders 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted18 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Broncos 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 47
4th quarter40 plays
Raiders10Broncos16
Field goal13 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Raiders16Broncos16
Raiders17Broncos16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Broncos 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3
Closing total
43
Raiders moneyline
+136
Broncos moneyline
-162
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 33 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north; 0.06 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 2:38DEN +11% win prob(2:38) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
4th · 8:14DEN +11% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to DEN 41 for 16 yards (27-D.Mathis). PENALTY on DEN-21-E.Bassey, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 41.
