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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Dolphins183 of 191 plays carry both curves
(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).
Swing −22.9 for ChargersExpected points −3.89 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:47LAC +23% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).
4th · 1:48LAC +20% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:11MIA +18% win prob(12:11) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 3, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at LAC 6.
4th · 1:01MIA +16% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 20-J.Bethel).
3rd · 2:18LAC +15% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:36LAC +14% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to MIA 31 for 24 yards (8-J.Holland, 21-D.Elliott).
3rd · 3:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 4-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th10:07Jason Sanders·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+330–31
4th3:57Cameron Dicker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+330–34
4th1:48Tyreek Hill·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+636–34
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryChargers
Dolphins5–4Chargers
538Total yards433
8.5Yards per play5.7
51%Success rate58%
50%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
11Explosive plays8
29First downs27
0Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.15Chargers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Dolphins: +0.61 expected points added per play
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.51Dolphins: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.30Chargers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Chargers’s 76 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Chargers 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chargers4.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.6 pts, 11.6 points above their season mean of -1.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).
Q4 3:47 · Dolphins · 3rd & 10 at MIA 25 · gained 47 · +3.89 EP · +23.7% win probability
181 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
50%
Yards
969
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0256%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.4981%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.0659%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.6029%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 2
Dolphins0Chargers6
Dolphins0Chargers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins6Chargers7
Dolphins7Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
2nd quarter61 plays
Punt3 plays
Dolphins10Chargers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Chargers 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins10Chargers13
Dolphins10Chargers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 1
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 40
Dolphins16Chargers14
Dolphins17Chargers14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Chargers 1
Dolphins17Chargers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 32
Dolphins20Chargers17
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 23
3rd quarter40 plays
Dolphins20Chargers23
Dolphins20Chargers24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 24
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins26Chargers24
Dolphins27Chargers24
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 19
4th quarter52 plays
Dolphins27Chargers30
Dolphins27Chargers31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 2
Dolphins30Chargers31
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Dolphins30Chargers34
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Dolphins36Chargers34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
