For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

36

Los Angeles Chargers

34

LAC -3 upsetO 50.5 ✓Dome

Miami Dolphins 36–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:47, LAC +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 3:47MIA 30 — LAC 34MIA ball · 3rd & 10LAC 81%

(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:47LAC +23% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).
  2. Q4 · 1:48LAC +20% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 12:11MIA +18% win prob(12:11) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 3, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at LAC 6.
  4. Q4 · 1:01MIA +16% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 20-J.Bethel).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:42LAC Touchdown

    (4:42) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — LAC 7
  2. Q1 · 1:19MIA Touchdown

    (1:19) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — LAC 7
  3. Q2 · 11:46MIA Field goal

    (11:46) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — LAC 7
  4. Q2 · 9:11LAC Touchdown

    (9:11) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — LAC 14
  5. Q2 · 1:47MIA Touchdown

    (1:47) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — LAC 14
  6. Q2 · 0:14LAC Field goal

    (:14) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — LAC 17
  7. Q2 · 0:00MIA Field goal

    (:00) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — LAC 17
  8. Q3 · 9:20LAC Touchdown

    (9:20) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — LAC 24
  9. Q3 · 2:18MIA Touchdown

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — LAC 24
  10. Q4 · 14:03LAC Touchdown

    (14:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Kelley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — LAC 31
  11. Q4 · 10:07MIA Field goal

    (10:07) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 30 — LAC 31
  12. Q4 · 3:57LAC Field goal

    (3:57) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: MIA 30 — LAC 34
  13. Q4 · 1:48MIA Touchdown

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIA 36 — LAC 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsChargers
Offensive plays6376
Total yards538 (edge)433
Yards per play8.5 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.31 (edge)0.15
Success rate51%58% (edge)
Dropback rate73%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.61 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.510.30 (edge)
Third downs5/109/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)27
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers30 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

28/45, 466 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

27.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

23/33, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

16 att, 117 yds, 1 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Joshua KelleyRB

16 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

11/15 for 215 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · 14.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/5 for 78 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 256682:58Fumble
2LACLAC 615947:23Touchdown +7
3MIAMIA 2511713:24Touchdown +7
4LACLAC 25581:29Punt
5MIAMIA 238723:03Field goal +3
6LACLAC 258752:36Touchdown +7
7MIAMIA 25580:59Punt
8LACLAC 32461:34Punt
9MIAMIA 2013854:52Touchdown +7
10LACLAC 2511431:33Field goal +3
11MIAMIA 253220:09Field goal +3
12LACLAC 2513575:41Touchdown +7
13MIAMIA 2510494:48Interception
14LACLAC 44-32:13Punt
15MIALAC 352350:06Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 2512753:12Touchdown +7
17MIAMIA 2510533:57Field goal +3
18LACLAC 2514686:10Field goal +3
19MIAMIA 2510752:08Touchdown +6
20LACLAC 256100:50Turnover on downs
21MIALAC 24200:55End of game

13 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa28/4546631027.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert10373.71-0.4
Erik Ezukanma2178.500.4
Salvon Ahmed3113.70-0.4
Tua Tagovailoa551.00-9.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill1115215234%14.7
Jaylen Waddle4578011%3.9
Durham Smythe3744016%1.9
Braxton Berrios3542011%3.2
River Cracraft3540111%2.9
Alec Ingold223405%3.0
Raheem Mostert221305%-0.2
Salvon Ahmed03007%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DeShon Elliott750.000
Jevon Holland640.000
Jaelan Phillips450.500
Kader Kohou531.000
Jerome Baker330.000
Xavien Howard310.001
Zach Sieler311.000
Bradley Chubb120.000
Christian Wilkins120.000
Andrew Van Ginkel120.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert23/33229103-1.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler161177.314.8
Joshua Kelley16915.715.8
Justin Herbert5173.412.5
Keenan Allen263.000.2
Gerald Everett122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen6976029%3.7
Austin Ekeler4547016%2.1
Mike Williams4545016%1.0
Donald Parham3322110%2.7
Gerald Everett2321010%1.1
Quentin Johnston239010%-1.7
Derius Davis11503%0.1
Josh Palmer11403%-0.3
Joshua Kelley01003%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alohi Gilman720.000
Eric Kendricks430.001
Derwin James600.002
Michael Davis510.002
Kenneth Murray210.000
J.T. Woods300.000
Khalil Mack200.000
Asante Samuel110.000
Nicholas Williams100.000
Tuli Tuipulotu100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
50.5
MIA moneyline
+136
LAC moneyline
-162

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 70 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
MIA 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Brandon Staley