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Philadelphia Eagles 25 at New England Patriots 20. Final.
Eagles -3.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles 25, Patriots 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:29, 4th and 11, on Kayshon Boutte — 27.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:29 · 4th and 11
Kayshon Boutte
Eagles
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Boutte pushed ob at PHI 8 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Boutte (28-J.Jobe).
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Philadelphia Eagles 25–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, Eagles +27.4% win probability on one snap.
27.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darius SlayEaglesQ1 5:12(5:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 30. 2-D.Slay for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.2pts
Jalen HurtsPatriotsQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (6-C.Gonzalez) [9-M.Judon].
22.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — -0.09 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Eagles179 of 191 plays carry both curves
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Boutte pushed ob at PHI 8 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1
Swing −27.4 for PatriotsExpected points −2.08 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:29PHI +27% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Boutte pushed ob at PHI 8 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Boutte (28-J.Jobe).
4th · 2:00PHI +23% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (6-C.Gonzalez) [9-M.Judon].
1st · 5:12PHI +18% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 30. 2-D.Slay for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:58PHI +16% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at PHI 22 for -3 yards (98-J.Carter).
4th · 3:35PHI +15% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left tackle to PHI 35 for 8 yards (5-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (5-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by NE-25-Ma.Jones at PHI 41.
2nd · 0:30NE +11% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 32-yard field goal with 7:46 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:46Jake Elliott·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+33–0
2nd4:39Hunter Henry·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+716–7
2nd0:30Kendrick Bourne·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+716–14
3rd8:52Jake Elliott·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+319–14
4th13:26Jake Elliott·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+322–14
4th5:38Jake Elliott·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+325–14
4th3:43Kendrick Bourne·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · two-point no good+625–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryPatriots
Eagles1–7Patriots
252Total yards382
4.2Yards per play4.8
35%Success rate41%
31%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays3
14First downs24
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Eagles: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.20Patriots: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.21Patriots: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Eagles: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.20Patriots: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Patriots’s 79 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots outgained Eagles 382-252 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Patriots13.2%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NotePHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.2%, 12.3 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 1.5 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Every snap100%66 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%66 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time98%65 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time92%61 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time91%60 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
0D'Andre SwiftRB · Rotational29%19 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Situational20%13 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational12%8 snaps
13Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational11%7 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mario GoodrichCBEli RicksCBMoro OjomoDTTyler SteenGTanner McKeeQBRashaad PennyRBAlbert OkwuegbunamTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Marcus MariotaQB
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Calvin AndersonT · Every snap100%80 snaps
62Sidy SowG · Every snap100%80 snaps
68Atonio MafiG · Every snap100%80 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%80 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%80 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time91%73 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation79%63 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation73%58 snaps
80Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation69%55 snaps
7JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−26% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 30. 2-D.Slay for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:12 · Patriots · 3rd & 5 at PHI 42 · gained nothing · -9.13 EP · −26.4% win probability
177 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
633
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1761%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.2476%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2250%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4478%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Eagles3Patriots0
Field goal17 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Patriots 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles9Patriots0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Eagles 42
Eagles10Patriots0
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles16Patriots0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 5
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 45
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Eagles 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 11
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Patriots 48
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 17
Eagles16Patriots6
Eagles16Patriots7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Eagles 9
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
Eagles16Patriots13
Eagles16Patriots14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Eagles 19
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
Eagles19Patriots14
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Patriots 31
Punt15 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Eagles 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 41
4th quarter62 plays
Eagles22Patriots14
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Patriots 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Eagles 17
Eagles25Patriots14
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Patriots 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles25Patriots20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Eagles 11
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Patriots 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Eagles 19
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -3.5
Closing total
44.5
Eagles moneyline
-185
Patriots moneyline
+154
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 45 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-east; 0.12 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Bill Belichick
4th · 1:10NE +11% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at PHI 19 for 17 yards (26-T.Edmunds). NE 10-Mac Jones 5th career 300-yard game.
4th · 2:59PHI +11% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at PHI 43 for -7 yards (sack split by 90-J.Davis and 94-J.Sweat).
Eaglescategory by categoryPatriots
Eagles3
Patriots0
