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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
BY 3final margin
VikingsMinnesota17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Minnesota Vikings 17. Final.
Vikings -4 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 11:21, 3rd and 11, on Jordan Addison — 18.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:21 · 3rd and 11
Jordan Addison
Vikings
(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.
U 45 ✓
Dome
Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:21, Vikings +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsBuccaneersQ1 5:04(5:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], touched at MIN 20, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at MIN 18.
14.3pts
Christian IzienBuccaneersQ2 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Izien at TB 2. 29-C.Izien to TB 16 for 14 yards (18-J.Jefferson).
16.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 1 chunk play.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Buccaneers166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.
Swing +18.3 for VikingsExpected points +5.33 for VikingsThe model had Buccaneers 6 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:21MIN +18% win prob(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 0:23TB +17% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Izien at TB 2. 29-C.Izien to TB 16 for 14 yards (18-J.Jefferson).
1st · 5:04TB +14% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], touched at MIN 20, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at MIN 18.
3rd · 6:06MIN +13% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:18MIN +12% win prob(8:18) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 33 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips).
1st · 8:23TB +11% win prob(8:23) 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 26, touched at TB 27, RECOVERED by TB-9-J.Tryon at TB 25.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 57-yard field goal with 5:15 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:27Chase McLaughlin·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–0
4th5:15Chase McLaughlin·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryVikings
Buccaneers2–6Vikings
245Total yards369
3.8Yards per play5.9
34%Success rate40%
38%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays5
14First downs17
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.13Vikings: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Buccaneers: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.52Vikings: −0.52 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Vikings’s 63 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings outgained Buccaneers 369-245 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Vikings5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 8.1 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 1.5 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q2 11:21 · Vikings · 3rd & 11 at TB 39 · gained 39 · +5.33 EP · +17.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 83 yards from the MIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
36%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1589%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1065%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1941%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.0557%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2750%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.160%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 35
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 30
Buccaneers3Vikings0
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 14
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 25
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 16
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 17
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Buccaneers3Vikings6
Buccaneers3Vikings7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers3Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Buccaneers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Buccaneers9Vikings10
Buccaneers10Vikings10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Vikings 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 13
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Buccaneers16Vikings10
Buccaneers17Vikings10
Touchdown19 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Vikings 7
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 11
4th quarter47 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Buccaneers17Vikings16
Buccaneers17Vikings17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 23
Buccaneers20Vikings17
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Vikings 39
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
The period ended13 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Vikings 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -4
Closing total
45
Buccaneers moneyline
+170
Vikings moneyline
-205
Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Kevin O'Connell
4th · 14:27MIN +11% win prob(14:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 17-K.Osborn. PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at TB 5 - No Play.
2nd · 1:14MIN +11% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
