2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -4 upsetU 45 ✓DomeVikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:21, MIN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:21TB 3 — MIN 6MIN ball · 3rd & 11MIN 50%

(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:21MIN +18% win prob(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q2 · 0:23TB +17% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Izien at TB 2. 29-C.Izien to TB 16 for 14 yards (18-J.Jefferson).
Q1 · 5:04TB +14% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], touched at MIN 20, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at MIN 18.
Q3 · 6:06MIN +13% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:27TB Field goal
(3:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — MIN 0
Q2 · 11:21MIN Touchdown
(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-35-J.Dean, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 3 — MIN 7
Q2 · 5:43MIN Field goal
(5:43) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: TB 3 — MIN 10
Q2 · 1:14TB Touchdown
(1:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — MIN 10
Q3 · 6:06TB Touchdown
(6:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — MIN 10
Q4 · 13:43MIN Touchdown
(13:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Mattison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — MIN 17
Q4 · 5:15TB Field goal
(5:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 20 — MIN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Vikings
Offensive plays	65	63
Total yards	245	369 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	34%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.52
Third downs	6/16	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Vikings outgained Buccaneers 369–245 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

33/44, 344 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.3 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

21/34, 173 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

17 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-7.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

11 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/12 for 150 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/10 for 66 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	0:48	Punt
2	TB	TB 33	4	2	0:36	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 13	9	61	5:17	Fumble
4	TB	TB 25	6	14	2:05	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 26	3	-6	1:16	Fumble
6	TB	MIN 18	4	0	1:35	Field goal +3
7	MIN	MIN 17	5	8	2:18	Punt
8	TB	TB 10	4	7	1:57	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 17	7	83	2:53	Touchdown +7
10	TB	TB 18	5	6	1:51	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 31	9	62	3:43	Field goal +3
12	TB	TB 25	5	5	0:46	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 14	4	9	2:16	Punt
14	TB	TB 39	8	56	1:30	Touchdown +7
15	MIN	MIN 25	7	62	0:53	Interception
16	TB	TB 16	1	5	0:16	End of half
17	TB	TB 25	18	70	8:59	Touchdown +7
18	MIN	MIN 25	18	76	7:24	Touchdown +7
19	TB	TB 25	7	15	2:26	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 20	4	3	1:15	Punt
21	TB	TB 23	10	38	4:46	Field goal +3
22	MIN	MIN 25	5	3	1:18	Punt
23	TB	TB 30	10	27	3:52	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 83 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/34	173	2	0	1	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	17	39	2.3	-7.1
Sean Tucker	5	15	3.0	-0.8
Baker Mayfield	8	11	1.4	-2.1
Chase Edmonds	2	8	4.0	-0.0
Rakim Jarrett	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	10	66	1	31%	2.8
Chris Godwin	5	6	51	0	19%	3.8
Cade Otton	2	3	19	0	9%	-0.0
Rachaad White	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.8
Deven Thompkins	2	3	10	0	9%	0.6
Sean Tucker	2	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Trey Palmer	2	3	8	1	9%	0.3
Ko Kieft	0	3	0	0	9%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	5	5	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	4	1.0	0	1
Carlton Davis	4	2	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	3	2	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	3	1	0.0	0	0
Vita Vea	3	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Izien	2	1	0.0	1	1
Anthony Nelson	2	1	1.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	33/44	344	2	1	2	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	11	34	3.1	-1.1
Kirk Cousins	3	7	2.3	-5.5
Ty Chandler	3	0	0.0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	12	150	0	27%	6.0
Jordan Addison	4	6	61	1	14%	4.5
T.J. Hockenson	8	9	35	0	20%	0.5
Josh Oliver	3	3	32	0	7%	1.3
K.J. Osborn	3	6	31	0	14%	-5.7
Ty Chandler	1	1	18	0	2%	1.6
Alexander Mattison	3	4	10	1	9%	0.0
C.J. Ham	2	3	7	0	7%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Camryn Bynum	4	5	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	4	3	0.0	1
Danielle Hunter	3	3	1.0	1
Josh Metellus	6	0	0.0	1
Byron Murphy	2	3	0.0	0
Ivan Pace	3	2	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	1	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	1	2	0.0	0
Brian Asamoah	1	1	0.0	0
Akayleb Evans	2	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -4
Closing total: 45
TB moneyline: +170
MIN moneyline: -205

Vikings closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Kevin O'Connell