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Tennessee Titans 15 at New Orleans Saints 16. Final.
Saints -3 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 1
New Orleans Saints 16, Titans 15 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:36, 2nd and 10, on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — 13.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:36 · 2nd and 10
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Titans
(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NO 20 for 24 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Dome
Saints closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:36, Titans +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rashid ShaheedSaintsQ3 1:28(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
Rashid ShaheedSaintsQ4 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at TEN 26 for 41 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
12.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Titans164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NO 20 for 24 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Swing −13.0 for SaintsExpected points −1.85 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:36NO +13% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NO 20 for 24 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
3rd · 1:28NO +13% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55NO +13% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at TEN 26 for 41 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:20TEN +12% win prob(2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
3rd · 11:44NO +12% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at TEN 42 for 45 yards (31-K.Byard).
2nd · 0:37TEN +11% win prob(:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 12. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 22 for 10 yards (83-J.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashid Shaheed's 19-yard touchdown catch with 1:28 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:45Nick Folk·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–0
1st10:21Blake Grupe·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+33–3
1st3:10Nick Folk·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+36–3
2nd7:40Blake Grupe·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+36–6
2nd1:43Nick Folk·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+39–6
3rd9:30Blake Grupe·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+39–9
4th11:16Nick Folk·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+312–16
4th2:20Nick Folk·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+315–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categorySaints
Titans1–8Saints
285Total yards354
4.8Yards per play5.7
29%Success rate35%
17%Third-down rate44%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
13First downs14
3Sacks taken4
3Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Titans: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Titans: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.11Saints: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.41Saints: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Saints’s 62 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Saints 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Saints20.0%
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.6 pts, 8.8 points above their season mean of -5.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
71Andre DillardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%63 snaps
66Christopher HubbardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%63 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Full-time83%52 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time81%51 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
32Tyjae SpearsRB · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
88Trevon WescoTE · Rotational40%25 snaps
11Chris MooreWR · Situational14%9 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational10%6 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre AveryCBJayden PeevyDTCaleb MurphyOLBWill LevisQBJaelyn DuncanTDillon RadunzTColton DowellWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Nick Folk−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q4 2:20 · Titans · 4th & 6 at NO 11 · gained nothing · +0.09 EP · −19.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 67 yards from the NO 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
34%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2979%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0864%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0450%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0336%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3529%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Titans3Saints0
Field goal6 plays
Titans3Saints3
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Titans 8
Titans6Saints3
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Saints 9
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 25
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 37
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 27
Titans6Saints6
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 14
Intercepted4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 43
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans9Saints6
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Saints 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Titans 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Saints 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Titans9Saints9
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 6 to the Titans 33
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 47
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Titans9Saints15
Titans9Saints16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
4th quarter46 plays
Titans12Saints16
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Saints 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Titans15Saints16
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Saints 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, two quarterbacks and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Titans 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3
Closing total
41
Titans moneyline
+124
Saints moneyline
-148
Saints closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 31 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Titans 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Dennis Allen
1st · 15:00TEN +10% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from TEN 35 to NO 2. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 21 for 19 yards (37-A.Hooker). FUMBLES (37-A.Hooker), ball out of bounds at NO 24. PENALTY on NO-46-A.Prentice, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20. Tennessee challenged the ball was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from TEN 35 to NO 2. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 21 for 19 yards (37-A.Hooker). FUMBLES (37-A.Hooker), RECOVERED by TEN-37-A.Hooker at NO 24. Penalty on NO-46-A.Prentice, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 4:29NO +10% win prob(4:29) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to NO 24 for 46 yards (6-M.Maye).
