2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tennessee Titans

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -3 no coverU 41 ✓DomeSaints closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 16–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:36, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:36TEN 12 — NO 16TEN ball · 2nd & 10NO 69%

(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NO 20 for 24 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:36NO +13% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NO 20 for 24 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q3 · 1:28NO +13% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:55NO +13% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at TEN 26 for 41 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 2:20TEN +12% win prob(2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:45TEN Field goal
(13:45) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — NO 0
Q1 · 10:21NO Field goal
(10:21) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — NO 3
Q1 · 3:10TEN Field goal
(3:10) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — NO 3
Q2 · 7:40NO Field goal
(7:40) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — NO 6
Q2 · 1:43TEN Field goal
(1:43) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.
Score after this play: TEN 9 — NO 6
Q3 · 9:30NO Field goal
(9:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TEN 9 — NO 9
Q3 · 1:28NO Touchdown
(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 9 — NO 16
Q4 · 11:16TEN Field goal
(11:16) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 12 — NO 16
Q4 · 2:20TEN Field goal
(2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 15 — NO 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Saints
Offensive plays	59	62
Total yards	285	354 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	29%	35% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	2/12	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

23/33, 305 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.7 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

16/34, 198 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-12.0 expected points added · -19.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

15 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Jamaal WilliamsRB

18 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-7.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/10 for 112 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

5/6 for 89 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	—	1	0	0:04	Fumble
2	TEN	NO 24	4	2	1:16	Field goal +3
3	NO	NO 25	10	67	3:22	Field goal +3
4	TEN	TEN 25	12	66	7:11	Field goal +3
5	NO	NO 28	5	3	1:45	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 23	4	2	1:22	Punt
7	NO	NO 13	6	23	3:16	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 23	4	4	1:50	Punt
9	NO	TEN 28	7	14	2:17	Field goal +3
10	TEN	TEN 25	4	5	1:01	Interception
11	NO	NO 41	4	-8	2:07	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 30	7	67	2:49	Field goal +3
13	NO	NO 25	7	44	1:10	Interception
14	TEN	TEN 22	1	-8	0:30	End of half
15	TEN	TEN 25	5	28	2:05	Interception
16	NO	NO 6	7	60	3:30	Field goal +3
17	TEN	TEN 25	6	9	2:10	Punt
18	NO	NO 18	6	11	2:37	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 11	3	5	1:30	Interception
20	NO	TEN 33	6	33	1:45	Touchdown +7
21	TEN	TEN 25	13	48	5:11	Field goal +3
22	NO	NO 13	10	35	4:30	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 27	9	57	4:25	Field goal +3
24	NO	NO 29	10	72	2:17	End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 72 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	16/34	198	0	3	3	-12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	15	63	4.2	-1.4
Tyjae Spears	3	27	9.0	1.2
Treylon Burks	1	9	9.0	0.9
Ryan Tannehill	3	5	1.7	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	13	65	39%	-5.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	4	7	58	21%	1.3
Derrick Henry	2	3	56	9%	2.5
Treylon Burks	2	3	18	9%	-0.1
Tyjae Spears	1	4	1	12%	-2.4
Chigoziem Okonkwo	0	2	0	6%	-1.0
Chris Moore	0	1	0	3%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elijah Molden	5	2	0.0	0	1
Kevin Byard	4	3	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	4	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Gibbens	4	2	0.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	3	2	0.0	1	2
Jeffery Simmons	3	2	1.0	0	0
Teair Tart	3	2	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	3	1	1.5	0	0
Arden Key	1	3	1.5	0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	23/33	305	1	1	4	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	18	45	2.5	-7.2
Rashid Shaheed	2	11	5.5	-1.3
Tony Jones	1	5	5.0	0.3
Derek Carr	3	4	1.3	-3.7
Taysom Hill	3	4	1.3	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	8	10	112	0	30%	8.1
Rashid Shaheed	5	6	89	1	18%	6.3
Michael Thomas	5	8	61	0	24%	1.5
Juwan Johnson	3	5	36	0	15%	-4.6
Jamaal Williams	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.5
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Keith Kirkwood	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	3	5	0.5	0	0
Demario Davis	7	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Maye	5	1	0.0	1	1
Cameron Jordan	2	3	0.5	0	2
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	2	2	0.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	1	2	1.5	0	0
Paulson Adebo	2	0	0.0	1	1
Marshon Lattimore	2	0	0.0	1	4
Juwan Johnson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3
Closing total: 41
TEN moneyline: +124
NO moneyline: -148

Saints closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 31 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: TEN 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Dennis Allen